Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Investment community is too bearish on Pd, a strategic metal, it has strong growth dynamics looking forward. Future supplies will be physically constrained, whether from Russia and/or South Africa.</li>
<li>Palladium (Pd) demand to grow 26% over the next decade. Production dominated by Russia and South Africa. Russian production sustainability under question</li>
<li>Virtually all global Pd production is via by-product. Significant price rises required to incentivise additional supply  </li>
</ul>


Investment community is too bearish on Pd, a strategic metal, it has strong growth dynamics looking forward. Future supplies will be physically constrained, whether from Russia and/or South Africa.
Palladium (Pd) demand to grow 26% over the next decade. Production dominated by Russia and South Africa. Russian production sustainability under question
Virtually all global Pd production is via by-product. Significant price rises required to incentivise additional supply  


Palladium Price to Double Within a Decade

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1.a. Within the span of 6 hours we had markets trading WaPo the rumour, then reacting to the pushback on the rumour from Trump and then markets calling Trump’s push back a bluff.</li>
<li>We conclude a couple of things from this.</li>
<li>Firstly, what we have been saying the last month ever since Trump’s first comments on Canadian tariffs, namely that this is a negotiation tactic to get what he really wants.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1.a. Within the span of 6 hours we had markets trading WaPo the rumour, then reacting to the pushback on the rumour from Trump and then markets calling Trump’s push back a bluff.
We conclude a couple of things from this.
Firstly, what we have been saying the last month ever since Trump’s first comments on Canadian tariffs, namely that this is a negotiation tactic to get what he really wants.


The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25</li>
</ul>


How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25


<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Fast and furious moves up in silver, PGM and related metals</li>
<li>Sectors we have highlighted as inflation beneficiaries starting to attract capital</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Fast and furious moves up in silver, PGM and related metals
Sectors we have highlighted as inflation beneficiaries starting to attract capital


Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen.</li><li>We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.</li><li>Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen.We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Palladium (XPD COMDTY)

Palladium Price to Double Within a Decade

Investors underestimate growth potential of palladium due to supply constraints from Russia and South Africa, with demand expected to rise 26% in...

Gaius King

The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks

Trades: Short DXY, Long Palladium, Long Copper / Short Iron Ore. Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1

Steno Research

Mid-Year Themes Review - Part I

A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...

Rikki Malik

Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the continued move up in inflation beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

Greetings from Copenhagen. We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Palladium Price to Double Within a Decade

​Investors underestimate growth potential of palladium due to supply constraints from Russia and South Africa, with demand expected to rise 26% in...

Gaius King

The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks

Trades: Short DXY, Long Palladium, Long Copper / Short Iron Ore. Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1

Steno Research

Mid-Year Themes Review - Part I

​A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...

Rikki Malik

Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the continued move up in inflation beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

Greetings from Copenhagen. We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being...

Steno Research

Investors underestimate growth potential of palladium due to supply constraints from Russia and South Africa, with demand expected to rise 26% in...

A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...