Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ150 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.</li>
<li>The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.</li>
<li>AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the KOSPI2 INDEX, KOSDAQ150 Index, CSI300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.
The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.
AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, GDXJ, KRX New Deal, AMFI, Amman Mineral, Infratil

<ul>
<li>The changes to the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJ) were announced on 9 June and will be implemented at the close on 16 June.</li>
<li>Though there are no constituent changes, changes to free floats and capping factors will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.26% and in a one-way trade of US$251m.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alamos-gold-inc-75888dd6-1d65-427e-950c-393b5d90ab2e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38624:1" rel="noopener">Alamos Gold (AGI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25621:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Mining (EDV CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b2gold-corp-fee72de9-9219-4f08-9e4a-eff9db71e070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33420:1" rel="noopener">B2Gold Corp (BTG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The changes to the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJ) were announced on 9 June and will be implemented at the close on 16 June.
Though there are no constituent changes, changes to free floats and capping factors will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.26% and in a one-way trade of US$251m.
The largest passive inflows will be in Alamos Gold (AGI US), Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US), Endeavour Mining (EDV CN), B2Gold Corp (BTG US) and Centerra Gold (CG CN). 


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Float & Capping Changes

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months in March and April.</li><li>M&amp;A remained elevated in the month following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices.</li><li>Sentiment Update Following two very strong months in March and April (Gold, Silver, and the GDX were up 8.6%, 19.3%, and 18.9%, respectively), precious metals took a breath and were down slightly in the month of May.</li></ul>

The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months in March and April.M&amp;A remained elevated in the month following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices.Sentiment Update Following two very strong months in March and April (Gold, Silver, and the GDX were up 8.6%, 19.3%, and 18.9%, respectively), precious metals took a breath and were down slightly in the month of May.

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Pan American Silver (PAAS) completed the Yamana transaction at the end of March, continuing its track record of timely and value-accretive acquisitions that add scale and improve profitability. With the full annualised contribution from the Yamana assets, we estimate PAAS will produce c 25Moz of silver and 1.1Moz of gold in FY24. The anticipated launch of Escobal (FY25e) could further increase silver production to above 40Moz, bringing PAAS closer to the industry leader, Fresnillo. In this note we reinstate our estimates and update our valuation to reflect the Yamana acquisition. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation is now US$22.5/share. </p>

Pan American Silver (PAAS) completed the Yamana transaction at the end of March, continuing its track record of timely and value-accretive acquisitions that add scale and improve profitability. With the full annualised contribution from the Yamana assets, we estimate PAAS will produce c 25Moz of silver and 1.1Moz of gold in FY24. The anticipated launch of Escobal (FY25e) could further increase silver production to above 40Moz, bringing PAAS closer to the industry leader, Fresnillo. In this note we reinstate our estimates and update our valuation to reflect the Yamana acquisition. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation is now US$22.5/share. 

Pan American Silver - Bigger scale, stronger profitability

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we've recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives</li>
<li>Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). </li>
</ul>


Since late-January/early-February we've recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives
Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). 


Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

Canada

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS CN)

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Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Float & Capping Changes

Though there are no constituent changes for the GDXJ, changes to free floats and capping factors will result in an estimated one-way turnover of...

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Mining Monthly: May Edition

The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months...

Atrium Research

Pan American Silver - Bigger scale, stronger profitability

Pan American Silver (PAAS) completed the Yamana transaction at the end of March, continuing its track record of timely and value-accretive...

Edison Investment Research

Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

Defensive Sectors including Health Care $XLV, Utilities $RYU $XLU, and Staples $XLP are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price...

Vermilion Research

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