Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.</li>
<li>There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> merger and index changes the following week.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.</li>
</ul>


The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.
There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the HDFC Limited/ HDFC Bank merger and index changes the following week.
There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panin-financial-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19472:1" rel="noopener">Panin Financial (PNLF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energi-mega-persada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17534:1" rel="noopener">Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transcoal-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28449:1" rel="noopener">Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)</a>.</li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Potential adds are Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ), Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ), Panin Financial (PNLF IJ), Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ), Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO).
Potential deletions are Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ), Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ), Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ). 


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.</li>
<li>Largest passive inflows are expected to be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-esa-perkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14326:1" rel="noopener">Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.
Largest passive inflows are expected to be on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) and Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> released an impressive set of FY2021 results, as new financing picked up significantly and funding and credit costs declined in 4Q2021.</li>
<li>Management is optimistic on the outlook for new financing in 2022 plus the potential for significant tailwinds from the association with GoTo plus inorganic growth opportunities. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia</a> trades on 2.2x FY22E PBV with a forecast ROE of 16.2%, above its 5-year average PBV but it deserves a re-rating given its association with GoTo.</li>
</ul>



BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) released an impressive set of FY2021 results, as new financing picked up significantly and funding and credit costs declined in 4Q2021.
Management is optimistic on the outlook for new financing in 2022 plus the potential for significant tailwinds from the association with GoTo plus inorganic growth opportunities. 

BFI Finance Indonesia trades on 2.2x FY22E PBV with a forecast ROE of 16.2%, above its 5-year average PBV but it deserves a re-rating given its association with GoTo.


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Catching a Digital Wave with GoTo?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; </li>
<li>Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and </li>
<li>BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. </li>
</ul>


BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; 
Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and 
BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. 


Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

Indonesia

PT Panin Financial Tbk PT provides life, health, and personal accident insurance policies. The Company also operates in the annuity business.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Panin Financial (PNLF IJ)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 in July. Given emphasis on liquidity, the impact on the deletes is higher than on the adds. Historically, the...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation

There are 3, 6 and 7 changes for the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices. There are only 4 days to implementation and multiple days ADV to trade on a lot...

Brian Freitas

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Catching a Digital Wave with GoTo?

BFIN is optimistic on the outlook for new financing in 2022 plus the potential for significant tailwinds to come from the association with GoTo...

Angus Mackintosh

Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

BANK NEGARA INDONESIA: BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, and heavily dependent on a negative 10.0% tax rate. BNI recently announced deal comes...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 in July. Given emphasis on liquidity, the impact on the deletes is higher than on the adds. Historically, the...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation

There are 3, 6 and 7 changes for the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices. There are only 4 days to implementation and multiple days ADV to trade on a lot...

Brian Freitas

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Catching a Digital Wave with GoTo?

BFIN is optimistic on the outlook for new financing in 2022 plus the potential for significant tailwinds to come from the association with GoTo...

Angus Mackintosh

Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

BANK NEGARA INDONESIA: BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, and heavily dependent on a negative 10.0% tax rate. BNI recently announced deal comes...

Thomas J. Monaco

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation