Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Last month’s confirmation that Sogo Seibu is closing five more stores ends a terrible six months for department store chains.
Things started to look bad for the sector well before the lockdown as falling tourist numbers from South Korea, the impact of the consumption tax hike, and cautious consumers at home stole the gains made in the previous year.
A survey of 10,000 consumers earlier this year between the ages of 20 and 70 and 65% replied that they rarely visited department stores, if at all. This is up from 53.4% in 2011.
That the sector is in trouble is well-known but the shake out will be both accelerated and intensified by the current crisis, meaning that even fewer stores will survive, leaving just 100 or so true department stores, 50% less than now.
The good news is that the survivors will likely thrive, particularly <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a>. While the entire sector is currently a sell, investors looking at the long-term may see value in a few of the leading firms.
The following is an in-depth review of the sector with the following sections:
<ol>
<li>Summary of key trends</li>
<li>Overview of Sales and analysis of strong and weak categories now and in the future</li>
<li>Rankings of chains and stores by category sales</li>
<li>Analysis of regional differences</li>
<li>Ranking of Top 30 firms by Sales and OPM and analysis of strong vs weak chains</li>
<li>Ranking of Top 50 stores and analysis of sales density performance</li>
<li>Review of solutions to decline and which firms will survive and thrive.</li>
</ol>
This insight is labelled bearish because the sector will continue to decline but a small number of firms will have a sustained future and see higher growth in operating margins once the current crisis is over.

Last month’s confirmation that Sogo Seibu is closing five more stores ends a terrible six months for department store chains.
Things started to look bad for the sector well before the lockdown as falling tourist numbers from South Korea, the impact of the consumption tax hike, and cautious consumers at home stole the gains made in the previous year.
A survey of 10,000 consumers earlier this year between the ages of 20 and 70 and 65% replied that they rarely visited department stores, if at all. This is up from 53.4% in 2011.
That the sector is in trouble is well-known but the shake out will be both accelerated and intensified by the current crisis, meaning that even fewer stores will survive, leaving just 100 or so true department stores, 50% less than now.
The good news is that the survivors will likely thrive, particularly J Front Retailing (3086 JP) and Takashimaya (8233 JP). While the entire sector is currently a sell, investors looking at the long-term may see value in a few of the leading firms.
The following is an in-depth review of the sector with the following sections:

Summary of key trends
Overview of Sales and analysis of strong and weak categories now and in the future
Rankings of chains and stores by category sales
Analysis of regional differences
Ranking of Top 30 firms by Sales and OPM and analysis of strong vs weak chains
Ranking of Top 50 stores and analysis of sales density performance
Review of solutions to decline and which firms will survive and thrive.

This insight is labelled bearish because the sector will continue to decline but a small number of firms will have a sustained future and see higher growth in operating margins once the current crisis is over.

Japan's Department Stores in 2020: The Biggest Crisis Since World War II

With shoppers staying away in March and April, department stores are suddenly the most vulnerable sector of all.Some department stores have improved in the past 20 years and, in the past five, the big players have poured investment into more modernisation. This has brought some success to the top firms, especially from wealthy consumers, but no one could have seen the virus crisis coming.A major cull of stores was already expected, but those cuts are now likely to go much deeper. A sector that once had 313 stores and is now already down to 205 may only have capacity for 100.A few chains will survive and thrive, however.

With shoppers staying away in March and April, department stores are suddenly the most vulnerable sector of all.Some department stores have improved in the past 20 years and, in the past five, the big players have poured investment into more modernisation. This has brought some success to the top firms, especially from wealthy consumers, but no one could have seen the virus crisis coming.A major cull of stores was already expected, but those cuts are now likely to go much deeper. A sector that once had 313 stores and is now already down to 205 may only have capacity for 100.A few chains will survive and thrive, however.

Japan's Department Stores: The Most to Lose but Also the Hardest Hit

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and the growing enthusiasm to use dining and leisure options at station-based malls across the country.Tourism boosted outlet malls once again and helped Narita Airport’s SC to widen its lead as the biggest mall by far, but it was the big station-based SCs that performed the best on average.Despite this relative buoyancy, the number of new malls in 2018 collapsed to the lowest level in 20 years and 2019 was also a poor year. Shortages of labour and materials in the pre-Olympic infrastructure boom haven’t helped but nor has greater competition and falling interest in all but the best retailers’ new stores.The following is an in-depth review of shopping centre development and performance in 2018-19 including a ranking of the top 50 shopping centres by sales.

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and the growing enthusiasm to use dining and leisure options at station-based malls across the country.Tourism boosted outlet malls once again and helped Narita Airport’s SC to widen its lead as the biggest mall by far, but it was the big station-based SCs that performed the best on average.Despite this relative buoyancy, the number of new malls in 2018 collapsed to the lowest level in 20 years and 2019 was also a poor year. Shortages of labour and materials in the pre-Olympic infrastructure boom haven’t helped but nor has greater competition and falling interest in all but the best retailers’ new stores.The following is an in-depth review of shopping centre development and performance in 2018-19 including a ranking of the top 50 shopping centres by sales.

Japan Shopping Centres 2018-19: Sales Rise Again but Fewer New Malls

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report.

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report. 

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Continued weakness in global manufacturing and the U.S.-EU tariff escalation raises the potential for a breakdown in global equities, however our outlook remains neutral as long as the MSCI ACWI remains confined to its horizontal range. In today's report we highlight attractive and actionable set-ups within technology, construction and engineering, and real estate.

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Continued weakness in global manufacturing and the U.S.-EU tariff escalation raises the potential for a breakdown in global equities, however our outlook remains neutral as long as the MSCI ACWI remains confined to its horizontal range. In today's report we highlight attractive and actionable set-ups within technology, construction and engineering, and real estate.

Global Equity Strategy: Prevailing Trends Persist

Japan

PARCO CO., LTD. operates shopping centers specializing in fashion shops in Kanto, Chubu, Kansai, Hokkaido, and Kyushu area.  The Company also operates playhouses and theaters.

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Parco Co Ltd (8251 JP)

Japan's Department Stores in 2020: The Biggest Crisis Since World War II

Japan's department store sector will continue to contract so it is right to be bearish on the sector. However, the clear out will allow some firms...

Michael Causton

Japan's Department Stores: The Most to Lose but Also the Hardest Hit

With shoppers staying away in March and April, department stores are suddenly the most vulnerable sector of all.Some department stores have...

Michael Causton

Japan Shopping Centres 2018-19: Sales Rise Again but Fewer New Malls

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and...

Michael Causton

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Prevailing Trends Persist

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Continued weakness in global...

Vermilion Research

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