India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Copra prices have corrected <strong>~30% from July 2025 peaks</strong> as of January 2026, signaling the end of a hyper-inflationary cycle that saw costs double YoY.</li>
<li>Raw material costs represent up to 50% of the COGS for coconut oil leaders. This correction provides massive tailwind for gross margin expansion for Companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>. </li>
<li>Companies expect Copra prices will further soften by March 2026 "flush season" and that will help companies in margin repair.</li>
</ul>


Copra prices have corrected ~30% from July 2025 peaks as of January 2026, signaling the end of a hyper-inflationary cycle that saw costs double YoY.
Raw material costs represent up to 50% of the COGS for coconut oil leaders. This correction provides massive tailwind for gross margin expansion for Companies like Marico Ltd (MRCO IN). 
Companies expect Copra prices will further soften by March 2026 "flush season" and that will help companies in margin repair.


How Falling Prices of Copra Are Reshaping India's FMCG Margins in 2026?

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>Imports are swinging sharply between palm, soy, and even canola, while refinery utilization remains weak and farmer incentives are misaligned.</li>
<li>This leaves India exposed to global volatility, undercuts the self-sufficiency agenda, and pressures margins across refiners and FMCG players.</li>
<li>Duty cuts buy time, but unless farmer economics tilt back toward oilseeds, India’s edible-oil puzzle will remain unresolved.</li>
</ul>


Imports are swinging sharply between palm, soy, and even canola, while refinery utilization remains weak and farmer incentives are misaligned.
This leaves India exposed to global volatility, undercuts the self-sufficiency agenda, and pressures margins across refiners and FMCG players.
Duty cuts buy time, but unless farmer economics tilt back toward oilseeds, India’s edible-oil puzzle will remain unresolved.


Thematic Report: India’s Cooking-Oil Industry

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

<ul>
<li>Tata Hitachi Targets Increased Market Share Amid Chinese Competition, Plans Manufacturing Expansion</li>
<li>Railways to Receive PLI Boost, Aiming to Reduce Import Dependency and Foster Local Manufacturing</li>
<li>India's Coal Production Surges 14% in June, Reaching 84.63 Million Tonnes, Boosting Sector Efficiency</li>
</ul>


Tata Hitachi Targets Increased Market Share Amid Chinese Competition, Plans Manufacturing Expansion
Railways to Receive PLI Boost, Aiming to Reduce Import Dependency and Foster Local Manufacturing
India's Coal Production Surges 14% in June, Reaching 84.63 Million Tonnes, Boosting Sector Efficiency


#23 India Insight: Tata Hitachi Market Share, Patanjali Acquires Non-Food Business, ITC Exports

India

Patanjali Foods Limited is a major Indian fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) company primarily engaged in edible oils, food products, and consumer essentials. The company's diverse portfolio includes refined oils, vanaspati, bakery fats, soya-based nutrition products, and a wide range of packaged foods, nutraceuticals, and personal care items. Patanjali Foods is headquartered in Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India, and was founded in 1986.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Patanjali Foods (PATANJAL IN)

How Falling Prices of Copra Are Reshaping India's FMCG Margins in 2026?

Copra prices have dropped ~30% from July 2025 peaks, benefiting coconut oil leaders like Marico Ltd with potential for gross margin expansion....

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: India’s Cooking-Oil Industry

India's edible oil industry faces volatility due to shifting imports and weak refinery utilization, highlighting the need for aligned farmer...

Nimish Maheshwari

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

How Falling Prices of Copra Are Reshaping India's FMCG Margins in 2026?

​Copra prices have dropped ~30% from July 2025 peaks, benefiting coconut oil leaders like Marico Ltd with potential for gross margin expansion....

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: India’s Cooking-Oil Industry

​India's edible oil industry faces volatility due to shifting imports and weak refinery utilization, highlighting the need for aligned farmer...

Nimish Maheshwari

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

#23 India Insight: Tata Hitachi Market Share, Patanjali Acquires Non-Food Business, ITC Exports

​Tata Hitachi aims for growth against Chinese competition, Railways to boost local manufacturing, India's coal production up 14% in June.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Copra prices have dropped ~30% from July 2025 peaks, benefiting coconut oil leaders like Marico Ltd with potential for gross margin expansion....

India's edible oil industry faces volatility due to shifting imports and weak refinery utilization, highlighting the need for aligned farmer...

Tata Hitachi aims for growth against Chinese competition, Railways to boost local manufacturing, India's coal production up 14% in June.