Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klarna’s IPO issue price of USD40 implies a market capitalisation of USD15.1bn and, according to financial press reports, the IPO was twenty-five times over-subscribed</li>
<li>The Klarna IPO valuation metrics, versus its peers, still serves to highlight Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we stand by our Affirm sell rating</li>
<li>On the positive side, we highlight PayPal as also the best value play of the major BNPL participants; we also like PagSeguro and Nexi</li>
</ul>


Klarna’s IPO issue price of USD40 implies a market capitalisation of USD15.1bn and, according to financial press reports, the IPO was twenty-five times over-subscribed
The Klarna IPO valuation metrics, versus its peers, still serves to highlight Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we stand by our Affirm sell rating
On the positive side, we highlight PayPal as also the best value play of the major BNPL participants; we also like PagSeguro and Nexi


Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

<ul>
<li>Klarna shares are set to start NYSE trading on 10 September; the issue price range implies a market capitalisation of USD12.8bn to USD13.6bn; we believe that its valuation looks underwhelming</li>
<li>The Klarna IPO valuation versus its peers does, however, show Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we downgrade it to a sell; we upgrade Kakao Pay to a neutral from sell</li>
<li>We keep PagSeguro, PayPal and Nexi on the buy list for their value credentials; we believe that PayPal is also the best value of the major BNPL players</li>
</ul>


Klarna shares are set to start NYSE trading on 10 September; the issue price range implies a market capitalisation of USD12.8bn to USD13.6bn; we believe that its valuation looks underwhelming
The Klarna IPO valuation versus its peers does, however, show Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we downgrade it to a sell; we upgrade Kakao Pay to a neutral from sell
We keep PagSeguro, PayPal and Nexi on the buy list for their value credentials; we believe that PayPal is also the best value of the major BNPL players


Klarna IPO (KLAR US) - Underwhelming Valuations Against Key Comparables

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Klarna Group plc, a Swedish fintech giant and largest BNPL player in European Union, is expected to price $1B+ initial public offering next week.</li>
<li>The company’s amended F-1 puts the initial price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$13.6B at midpoint, down ~70% from peak valuation of ~$46B. </li>
<li>I think risk/reward profile is favorable given large consumer and merchant scale, expansion into digital retail banking services and potential revenue growth re-acceleration into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Klarna Group plc, a Swedish fintech giant and largest BNPL player in European Union, is expected to price $1B+ initial public offering next week.
The company’s amended F-1 puts the initial price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$13.6B at midpoint, down ~70% from peak valuation of ~$46B. 
I think risk/reward profile is favorable given large consumer and merchant scale, expansion into digital retail banking services and potential revenue growth re-acceleration into 2026.


Klarna IPO Valuation Update: Risk/Reward Profile Looks Good, Sequoia Stands To Be The Largest Winner

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Klarna is getting ready to complete its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>Klarna is offering 34.3 million shares at $35 to $37 per share. At the high end of the IPO price range, the company would be able to raise $1.27 billion.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation is 5.4% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative View of the Klarna IPO. </li>
</ul>


Klarna is getting ready to complete its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange.
Klarna is offering 34.3 million shares at $35 to $37 per share. At the high end of the IPO price range, the company would be able to raise $1.27 billion.
Our base case valuation is 5.4% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative View of the Klarna IPO. 


<ul>
<li>Klarna Group plc, a first mover in the BNPL space and AI-powered fintech company, is targeting an IPO valuation of between $13B and $14B, according to Reuters.</li>
<li>A Swedish founder-led decacorn is preparing for a roadshow after Labor Day this week. They intend to raise up to ~$1B and start trading in September.</li>
<li>$13B-$14B IPO valuation is cheap vs. peers and implies ~68% discount to Affirm. Klarna’s last down round was a $800M venture round in July of 2022 at a ~$6.7B valuation.</li>
</ul>


Klarna Group plc, a first mover in the BNPL space and AI-powered fintech company, is targeting an IPO valuation of between $13B and $14B, according to Reuters.
A Swedish founder-led decacorn is preparing for a roadshow after Labor Day this week. They intend to raise up to ~$1B and start trading in September.
$13B-$14B IPO valuation is cheap vs. peers and implies ~68% discount to Affirm. Klarna’s last down round was a $800M venture round in July of 2022 at a ~$6.7B valuation.


Klarna IPO Valuation Update: $13B-$14B IPO Valuation Is Cheap Vs. Peers, ~68% Discount To Affirm

United States

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates as a technology platform company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants. The Company offers online payment solutions. PayPal Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Victor Galliano

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) - Underwhelming Valuations Against Key Comparables

Klarna is due to IPO, with its valuation underwhelming relative to peers; we downgrade Affirm to a sell due to very rich valuations, and we stick...

Victor Galliano

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: Risk/Reward Profile Looks Good, Sequoia Stands To Be The Largest Winner

Klarna Group plc is expected to go public next week. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, valuation comps and set a 12-month target price for...

Andrei Zakharov

Klarna IPO Valuation Analysis

Klarna is getting ready to complete its IPO. Our base case valuation is 5.4% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. Given the lack of...

Douglas Kim

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: $13B-$14B IPO Valuation Is Cheap Vs. Peers, ~68% Discount To Affirm

Klarna Group plc, a leading EU BNPL fintech, targets $13B-14B IPO valuation, aiming to raise up to $1B and start trading in September under the...

Andrei Zakharov

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Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

​Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Victor Galliano

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) - Underwhelming Valuations Against Key Comparables

​Klarna is due to IPO, with its valuation underwhelming relative to peers; we downgrade Affirm to a sell due to very rich valuations, and we stick...

Victor Galliano

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: Risk/Reward Profile Looks Good, Sequoia Stands To Be The Largest Winner

Klarna Group plc is expected to go public next week. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, valuation comps and set a 12-month target price for...

Andrei Zakharov

Klarna IPO Valuation Analysis

Klarna is getting ready to complete its IPO. Our base case valuation is 5.4% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. Given the lack of...

Douglas Kim

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: $13B-$14B IPO Valuation Is Cheap Vs. Peers, ~68% Discount To Affirm

​Klarna Group plc, a leading EU BNPL fintech, targets $13B-14B IPO valuation, aiming to raise up to $1B and start trading in September under the...

Andrei Zakharov

Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Klarna is due to IPO, with its valuation underwhelming relative to peers; we downgrade Affirm to a sell due to very rich valuations, and we stick...

Klarna Group plc, a leading EU BNPL fintech, targets $13B-14B IPO valuation, aiming to raise up to $1B and start trading in September under the...