Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> was mispriced during the IPO process as the market forgot to take in to account Coupang’s excessive 1P exposure.</li>
<li>After the first day pop, share price has declined more than 60% to partially correct the mispricing that happened during the IPO.</li>
<li>We think that the share price could potentially drop another 50% before Coupang’s valuation multiples (on comparable basis) fall in line with regional peers.</li>
</ul>



Coupang (CPNG US) was mispriced during the IPO process as the market forgot to take in to account Coupang’s excessive 1P exposure.
After the first day pop, share price has declined more than 60% to partially correct the mispricing that happened during the IPO.
We think that the share price could potentially drop another 50% before Coupang’s valuation multiples (on comparable basis) fall in line with regional peers.


Coupang: The Mispricing Is Still Significant

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the recent updates and look at the likely valuations.</li>
</ul>


China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
In this note, we will talk about the recent updates and look at the likely valuations.


China Tourism Group A/​H Listing - Recent Updates and a Quick Look at Valuations

<ul>
<li>Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.
The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO - Cornered Deal but Offers Limited Upside

<ul>
<li>Nikkei reports that a high ranking CCP official has suggested that the platforms possessing personal data should return around 20-30% of the revenue generated to the common prosperity cause. </li>
<li>We expect big tech to lose competitiveness as the government takes control of the use of personal data. Meanwhile the Chinese economic slowdown is a double blow to big tech. </li>
<li>If remaining investors lose faith and exit, big tech can trade at around 1.0-1.5x price to book in the next few years.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei reports that a high ranking CCP official has suggested that the platforms possessing personal data should return around 20-30% of the revenue generated to the common prosperity cause. 
We expect big tech to lose competitiveness as the government takes control of the use of personal data. Meanwhile the Chinese economic slowdown is a double blow to big tech. 
If remaining investors lose faith and exit, big tech can trade at around 1.0-1.5x price to book in the next few years.


Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>A company's earnings is arguably the most important line item on the income statement</li>
<li>Given its relative significance as a barometer of a company's financial and operating performance, the earnings line item is highly susceptible to fraudulent misstatements </li>
<li>In the 2nd of this 3 part series, we discuss Quality of Earnings Shenanigans Key Metrics. We discuss Balance Sheet Health metrics in the next edition of this Insights series. </li>
</ul>


A company's earnings is arguably the most important line item on the income statement
Given its relative significance as a barometer of a company's financial and operating performance, the earnings line item is highly susceptible to fraudulent misstatements 
In the 2nd of this 3 part series, we discuss Quality of Earnings Shenanigans Key Metrics. We discuss Balance Sheet Health metrics in the next edition of this Insights series. 


Forensics 101 - Quality of Earnings Shenanigans and Key Detection Metrics

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Coupang: The Mispricing Is Still Significant

With revenue expected to decelerate, we calculate that there’s significant further downside potential to Coupang shares as its valuation remains...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Recent Updates and a Quick Look at Valuations

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO - Cornered Deal but Offers Limited Upside

Cloud Village, also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we run the deal through our ECM...

Sumeet Singh

China Considering a Data Tax on Big Tech

Investors are starting to rethink their investments in the Chinese tech space and the idea that investors should avoid Chinese tech stocks amidst...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Forensics 101 - Quality of Earnings Shenanigans and Key Detection Metrics

Given its significance as a barometer of a company's performance, the earnings line item is susceptible to fraudulent misstatements. We discuss...

Jason Yap, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Coupang: The Mispricing Is Still Significant

With revenue expected to decelerate, we calculate that there’s significant further downside potential to Coupang shares as its valuation remains...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China Tourism Group A/​H Listing - Recent Updates and a Quick Look at Valuations

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO - Cornered Deal but Offers Limited Upside

Cloud Village, also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we run the deal through our ECM...

Sumeet Singh

China Considering a Data Tax on Big Tech

Investors are starting to rethink their investments in the Chinese tech space and the idea that investors should avoid Chinese tech stocks amidst...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Forensics 101 - Quality of Earnings Shenanigans and Key Detection Metrics

Given its significance as a barometer of a company's performance, the earnings line item is susceptible to fraudulent misstatements. We discuss...

Jason Yap, CFA

China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Recent Updates and a Quick Look at Valuations