Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We reviewed our PDD investment thesis trying to incorporate and make sense of various channel checks and sell-side’s research which are often inconsistent and even conflicting.</li>
<li>While there are many unknowns and ambiguities, we are convinced the street still significantly underestimates PDD’s growth outlook for 2H23, and fails to see a slowdown in FY24.</li>
<li>Our price target remain unchanged as lower target P/E multiple (to reflect slowdown prospect) is offset by higher FY23 earnings which flow to outer years.  </li>
</ul>


We reviewed our PDD investment thesis trying to incorporate and make sense of various channel checks and sell-side’s research which are often inconsistent and even conflicting.
While there are many unknowns and ambiguities, we are convinced the street still significantly underestimates PDD’s growth outlook for 2H23, and fails to see a slowdown in FY24.
Our price target remain unchanged as lower target P/E multiple (to reflect slowdown prospect) is offset by higher FY23 earnings which flow to outer years.  


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Grizzly Research's track record, especially with accusations against well-known Chinese ADRs like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc-bc4e7cc1-66e0-4426-a8f1-edc72f314237" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gaotu-techedu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28069:1" rel="noopener">Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US)</a>, hasn't been successful lately.</li>
<li>Despite past setbacks, the company has recently targeted another renowned Chinese ADR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings (PDD US)</a>.</li>
<li>Grizzly Research alleges that Pinduoduo's shopping app, "TEMU," is a harmful malware/spyware secretly extracting user data.</li>
</ul>


Grizzly Research's track record, especially with accusations against well-known Chinese ADRs like NIO (NIO US), ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US), and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US), hasn't been successful lately.
Despite past setbacks, the company has recently targeted another renowned Chinese ADR, PDD Holdings (PDD US).
Grizzly Research alleges that Pinduoduo's shopping app, "TEMU," is a harmful malware/spyware secretly extracting user data.


Pinduoduo: Short Seller, Grizzly Research Raises Spyware Concerns About TEMU

China/Asia TMT, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Shawn Yang

China/Asia TMT

China TMT research

Blue Lotus Research Institute

​​​​​​​​Blue Lotus is a China headquartered research institution covering overseas listed China TMT stocks. 

<ul>
<li>PDD reported CY2Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net profit 28% and 58% vs. our est., and 21% and 44% vs. cons., respectively. </li>
<li>We raised our 2H23 forecasts for PDD because: 1) GMV growth hasn’t been significantly impacted by the current competitive landscape; 2) take rate could maintain a high level due to </li>
<li>Continuous optimization of ad products; and 3) new businesses such as Temu and Kuaituantuan (快团团) have fair growth. We maintain BUY and raise our TP to US$ 107.</li>
</ul>


PDD reported CY2Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net profit 28% and 58% vs. our est., and 21% and 44% vs. cons., respectively. 
We raised our 2H23 forecasts for PDD because: 1) GMV growth hasn’t been significantly impacted by the current competitive landscape; 2) take rate could maintain a high level due to 
Continuous optimization of ad products; and 3) new businesses such as Temu and Kuaituantuan (快团团) have fair growth. We maintain BUY and raise our TP to US$ 107.


[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$107)]: Raise TP for GMV, Take Rate, Temu and Kuaituantuan

<ul>
<li>PDD reported blowout 2Q results with bottom line beating consensus by 40% thanks to stronger domestic marketplaces business, narrower losses incurred by TEMU and higher other income.</li>
<li>2Q results cleared much of our concern around PDD’s bottom line growth and we now see 2Q as the low point of earnings growth in FY23.</li>
<li>We believe the company will report $9 billion net profit for FY23 and expect rounds of earnings revision by the street will further lift share price. US $120 price target.</li>
</ul>


PDD reported blowout 2Q results with bottom line beating consensus by 40% thanks to stronger domestic marketplaces business, narrower losses incurred by TEMU and higher other income.
2Q results cleared much of our concern around PDD’s bottom line growth and we now see 2Q as the low point of earnings growth in FY23.
We believe the company will report $9 billion net profit for FY23 and expect rounds of earnings revision by the street will further lift share price. US $120 price target.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

<ul><li>PDD Holdings (PDD) announced (29 Aug) 2Q23 results: revenue was up 66.3% YoY to RMB52.3bn, 22/21% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, which we attributable to robust GMV growth and continuous increase in monetization.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income increased by 42% YoY to RMB15.3bn, 41% ahead of consensus, due to operating leverage, sales and marketing spending geared at generating higher GMV from key consumer wallet-share gain categories.</li><li>The strong beat in results echoed our view that in the ecommerce sector PDD has relatively more proactive room to drive GMV growth through targeting bigger consumer wallet share, and further increasing monetization rate given its relatively better ROI compared with peers. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

PDD Holdings (PDD) announced (29 Aug) 2Q23 results: revenue was up 66.3% YoY to RMB52.3bn, 22/21% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, which we attributable to robust GMV growth and continuous increase in monetization.Non-GAAP net income increased by 42% YoY to RMB15.3bn, 41% ahead of consensus, due to operating leverage, sales and marketing spending geared at generating higher GMV from key consumer wallet-share gain categories.The strong beat in results echoed our view that in the ecommerce sector PDD has relatively more proactive room to drive GMV growth through targeting bigger consumer wallet share, and further increasing monetization rate given its relatively better ROI compared with peers. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PDD Holdings (PDD US) – Consumer Wallet Share Gain Strategy Boosted Revenue and Earnings Growth

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters

We believe the street still significantly underestimates PDD's growth outlook for 2H23 but fails to see a slowdown in FY24. Getting the growth...

Eric Chen

Pinduoduo: Short Seller, Grizzly Research Raises Spyware Concerns About TEMU

Grizzly Research published a short-seller report on PDD, primarily accusing the shopping app “TEMU” of being malware/spyware capable of...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri