Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PDD reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP EBIT and non-GAAP net income (2.6%), (12.4%) and (6.3%) vs. cons., and (3.4%)</li>
<li>PDD is easing its appeasement of China-platform merchants, positive for profitability,but its transition to the semi-consignment model will likely continue as it tries to improve merchandise selection and logistics quality</li>
<li>We reiterate BUY as PDD is undervalued at 8.1x CY2025 P/E, but we cut its TP to US$ 146 to reflect slower growth amid increasing overseas investment.</li>
</ul>


PDD reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP EBIT and non-GAAP net income (2.6%), (12.4%) and (6.3%) vs. cons., and (3.4%)
PDD is easing its appeasement of China-platform merchants, positive for profitability,but its transition to the semi-consignment model will likely continue as it tries to improve merchandise selection and logistics quality
We reiterate BUY as PDD is undervalued at 8.1x CY2025 P/E, but we cut its TP to US$ 146 to reflect slower growth amid increasing overseas investment.


[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$146) TP Change]: C3Q24: Painful Reversal of Its Merchant Squeeze

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin.</li>
<li>We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth rather than profit.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 43% and a price target of US$167 for 2025. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin.
We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth rather than profit.
We conclude an upside of 43% and a price target of US$167 for 2025. Buy.


PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gaming Sector Update/NTES US: NPPA Releases November Domestic and Imported Game Approvals(+)</li>
<li>3690 HK/Douyin:Douyin Local Life’s Double 11 Sales Increase by 53% YoY, Indicating Rising Consumer Spending in China, Bodes Well for Meituan.(+)</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/JD US: Taobao/Tmall launches “Go Bargain” feature (+/+/+)</li>
</ul>


Gaming Sector Update/NTES US: NPPA Releases November Domestic and Imported Game Approvals(+)
3690 HK/Douyin:Douyin Local Life’s Double 11 Sales Increase by 53% YoY, Indicating Rising Consumer Spending in China, Bodes Well for Meituan.(+)
BABA US/PDD US/JD US: Taobao/Tmall launches “Go Bargain” feature (+/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:Gaming Sector Update/NTES US/3690 HK/Douyin/BABA US/PDD US/JD US/700HK

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>We compared similar growth stage of Alibaba to Pinduoduo, when GMV of both platforms increase from RMB1 trillion to RMB4 trillion, to facilitate better understanding of efficiency edge of Pinduoduo.</li>
<li>Contrary to consensus, Pinduoduo didn’t do better than Alibaba on OPEX (advertising expenditure in particular), but it did extract much greater value from the ecosystem via significantly higher take-rate.</li>
<li>The findings highlight how Pinduoduo aggregate user traffic at surprisingly high cost to beef up merchant competition in terms of cost optimization and user acquisition, with Pinduoduo  reaping greatest value.</li>
</ul>


We compared similar growth stage of Alibaba to Pinduoduo, when GMV of both platforms increase from RMB1 trillion to RMB4 trillion, to facilitate better understanding of efficiency edge of Pinduoduo.
Contrary to consensus, Pinduoduo didn’t do better than Alibaba on OPEX (advertising expenditure in particular), but it did extract much greater value from the ecosystem via significantly higher take-rate.
The findings highlight how Pinduoduo aggregate user traffic at surprisingly high cost to beef up merchant competition in terms of cost optimization and user acquisition, with Pinduoduo  reaping greatest value.


<ul>
<li>NTES US: &lt;Eggy Party&gt; Launches on Nintendo Switch today (+)</li>
<li>JD US/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for October 2024 (+/+/////-)</li>
<li>JD US:JD.com Launches "On-Demand Delivery Flagship Stores" for Its On-Demand Retail Business (+)</li>
</ul>


NTES US: &lt;Eggy Party&gt; Launches on Nintendo Switch today (+)
JD US/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for October 2024 (+/+/////-)
JD US:JD.com Launches "On-Demand Delivery Flagship Stores" for Its On-Demand Retail Business (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK/AMZN US

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)