Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BABA/BIDU: Alibaba and Baidu follow up on long text LLM, the rise of startups is negative for Baidu（//-）</li>
<li>BIDU: Apple and Baidu Held Talks on Ernie Bot Pre-Installing IPhone IOS18（+）</li>
<li>BABA/PDD: Alibaba opens direct from factory 1688 store on Taobao (+/-)</li>
</ul>


BABA/BIDU: Alibaba and Baidu follow up on long text LLM, the rise of startups is negative for Baidu（//-）
BIDU: Apple and Baidu Held Talks on Ernie Bot Pre-Installing IPhone IOS18（+）
BABA/PDD: Alibaba opens direct from factory 1688 store on Taobao (+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]BABA/BIDU/PDD/1024 HK/3690HK

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Concerns around slowdown in growth are behind the disconnect between PDD’s stellar 4Q23 results and lackluster share performance, in our view.</li>
<li>We have seen this before. If history is a guide, its valuation will improve after growth hits bottom in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We expect PDD to deliver 50% plus growth for 2024 and generate US$14 billion adjusted net profit. Reiterate US$240 billion target market cap or 50% upside.</li>
</ul>


Concerns around slowdown in growth are behind the disconnect between PDD’s stellar 4Q23 results and lackluster share performance, in our view.
We have seen this before. If history is a guide, its valuation will improve after growth hits bottom in 1Q24.
We expect PDD to deliver 50% plus growth for 2024 and generate US$14 billion adjusted net profit. Reiterate US$240 billion target market cap or 50% upside.


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Worries Overdone

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...</li>
<li>...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock</li>
<li>Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view</li>
</ul>


Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...
...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock
Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view


The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

<ul>
<li>SHEIN/PDD: France to restrict sales of fast - fashion (-/-)</li>
<li>NTES: After The Release of The New Expansion Pack For &lt;Beyond the World&gt;, It Climbed to the 3rd Position on iOS Games Grossing Chart in China (+)</li>
<li>6618 HK：JD Health's revenue in 2H23 exceeded expectations, while profits fell short, and revenue and profit guidance for 2024 both worse than consensus（-）</li>
</ul>


SHEIN/PDD: France to restrict sales of fast - fashion (-/-)
NTES: After The Release of The New Expansion Pack For &lt;Beyond the World&gt;, It Climbed to the 3rd Position on iOS Games Grossing Chart in China (+)
6618 HK：JD Health's revenue in 2H23 exceeded expectations, while profits fell short, and revenue and profit guidance for 2024 both worse than consensus（-）


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:SHEIN/PDD/NTES/6618 HK

<ul>
<li>PDD reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.4%), 12.4%, and 24% vs. our est., and 11.6%, 37.0%, and 50.3% vs. cons., respectively;</li>
<li>We estimate the beat was driven by (1) improved take rate on the China platform following ad tool adjustments, and (2) Temu margin expansion;</li>
<li>We remove Temu US from our model from 2025+, as restrictions seem more than likely following the TikTok ban and cut TP to US$ 159 to reflect this;</li>
</ul>


PDD reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.4%), 12.4%, and 24% vs. our est., and 11.6%, 37.0%, and 50.3% vs. cons., respectively;
We estimate the beat was driven by (1) improved take rate on the China platform following ad tool adjustments, and (2) Temu margin expansion;
We remove Temu US from our model from 2025+, as restrictions seem more than likely following the TikTok ban and cut TP to US$ 159 to reflect this;


[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$159) TP Change]: Bargain Valuation, Even if Temu Disappears

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]BABA/BIDU/PDD/1024 HK/3690HK

BABA and BIDU are making strategic move in response to market trends,with BIDU facing challenges from startups and BABA opens 1688 store...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Worries Overdone

Disconnect between strong 4Q results and weak share performance pointed to growth concerns. Valuation expected to improve after growth bottoms out...

Eric Chen

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:SHEIN/PDD/NTES/6618 HK

France to restrict sales of fast-fashion; JD Health's revenue exceeds expectations but profits fall short with worse guidance for 2024. NTES...

Blue Lotus Research Institute