Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Both advertising revenue and commission revenue grew dramatically in 4Q23.</li>
<li>Chinese consumers are seeking low price goods, after the economy went weak.</li>
<li>PDD’s overseas brand, TEMU, is expanding rapidly in the U.S.</li>
</ul>


Both advertising revenue and commission revenue grew dramatically in 4Q23.
Chinese consumers are seeking low price goods, after the economy went weak.
PDD’s overseas brand, TEMU, is expanding rapidly in the U.S.


PDD (PDD): 4Q23, Time for Low Price Goods, Revenue up by 123% YoY

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)</li>
<li>ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)</li>
<li>BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  </li>
</ul>


NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)
ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)
BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

<ul>
<li>BABA/PDD/CPNG: South Korean commissions investigating compliance of Chinese ecommerce platforms (-/-/+)</li>
<li>ByteDance/3690 HK: Douyin life service business had organizational restructure, and set annual sales target at RMB600bn, 100% yoy(-)</li>
<li>JD: JD provides free AI services for new 3P merchants (+)</li>
</ul>


BABA/PDD/CPNG: South Korean commissions investigating compliance of Chinese ecommerce platforms (-/-/+)
ByteDance/3690 HK: Douyin life service business had organizational restructure, and set annual sales target at RMB600bn, 100% yoy(-)
JD: JD provides free AI services for new 3P merchants (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/097950.KS/CPNG/PDD/ByteDance/3690 HK/JD

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>We see further upside to our previous above-consensus 4Q23 results estimates on low base, enhanced monetization, and faster TEMU expansion.</li>
<li>That said, we believe market focus already shifted to outlook for 2024, in particular an imminent slowdown in 1Q24 and renewed concern around US curb on TEMU.</li>
<li>30% share price correction is pricing in the above scenario and valuation should gradually improve as PDD delivers back-loaded bottom line growth in 2024.</li>
</ul>


We see further upside to our previous above-consensus 4Q23 results estimates on low base, enhanced monetization, and faster TEMU expansion.
That said, we believe market focus already shifted to outlook for 2024, in particular an imminent slowdown in 1Q24 and renewed concern around US curb on TEMU.
30% share price correction is pricing in the above scenario and valuation should gradually improve as PDD delivers back-loaded bottom line growth in 2024.


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Pricing in an Imminent Slowdown

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A listing in London would not remove de minimis reform risk in US market</li>
<li>A new report quantifies the potential cost of changes to US de minimis rules</li>
<li>Europe's rigorous new 'digital services' laws are an emerging threat to SHEIN</li>
</ul>


A listing in London would not remove de minimis reform risk in US market
A new report quantifies the potential cost of changes to US de minimis rules
Europe's rigorous new 'digital services' laws are an emerging threat to SHEIN


Shifting Its Planned IPO from New York to London Won't Address Key Risks Facing SHEIN

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

PDD Holdings (PDD US)

PDD (PDD): 4Q23, Time for Low Price Goods, Revenue up by 123% YoY

Both advertising and commission revenues grew dramatically in 4Q23. Chinese consumers are seeking low price goods. PDD’s overseas brand, TEMU, is...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/097950.KS/CPNG/PDD/ByteDance/3690 HK/JD

South Korean commissions investigate Chinese ecommerce platforms, Douyin sets ambitious sales target, JD offers free AI services for new merchants.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Pricing in an Imminent Slowdown

The market is looking beyond strong 4Q23 and pricing in an imminent slowdown in 1Q24 and renewed concern over potential US curb on TEMU. 30% share...

Eric Chen

Shifting Its Planned IPO from New York to London Won't Address Key Risks Facing SHEIN

Shifting SHEIN's IPO from New York to London would not mitigate the risk of US de minimis reforms; plus, new EU rules for large e-comm and social...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PDD (PDD): 4Q23, Time for Low Price Goods, Revenue up by 123% YoY

Both advertising and commission revenues grew dramatically in 4Q23. Chinese consumers are seeking low price goods. PDD’s overseas brand, TEMU, is...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

​ has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/097950.KS/CPNG/PDD/ByteDance/3690 HK/JD

​South Korean commissions investigate Chinese ecommerce platforms, Douyin sets ambitious sales target, JD offers free AI services for new merchants.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Pricing in an Imminent Slowdown

The market is looking beyond strong 4Q23 and pricing in an imminent slowdown in 1Q24 and renewed concern over potential US curb on TEMU. 30% share...

Eric Chen

Shifting Its Planned IPO from New York to London Won't Address Key Risks Facing SHEIN

Shifting SHEIN's IPO from New York to London would not mitigate the risk of US de minimis reforms; plus, new EU rules for large e-comm and social...

Tracking Traffic

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

South Korean commissions investigate Chinese ecommerce platforms, Douyin sets ambitious sales target, JD offers free AI services for new merchants.