Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This is our first report on Penumbra, a global healthcare major.</li><li>The company reported its fourth quarter and annual earnings on its conference call.</li><li>The company made a revenue of USD 284.7 million in Q4, marking a year-over-year increase of 28.7%, while their annual revenues for 2023 reached USD 1,058.5 million, a 25% increase compared to 2022.</li></ul>

This is our first report on Penumbra, a global healthcare major.The company reported its fourth quarter and annual earnings on its conference call.The company made a revenue of USD 284.7 million in Q4, marking a year-over-year increase of 28.7%, while their annual revenues for 2023 reached USD 1,058.5 million, a 25% increase compared to 2022.

Penumbra Inc: Initiation Of Coverage - A Tale Of Cautious Innovation! - Major Drivers

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> is poised for multi-year growth through strong market demand for its technically superior guidewires, market leadership positioning, new product launches, and direct marketing initiatives.</li>
<li>In FY24, Asahi Intecc aims to achieve revenue of ¥100B (+11% YoY), a significant milestone. The company targets revenue of ¥110B and an operating profit margin of 23–25% in FY26.</li>
<li>Asahi Intecc is expected to be a continued beneficiary of global procedure volume recovery. The company is likely to achieve its medium-term business plan ahead of schedule.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) is poised for multi-year growth through strong market demand for its technically superior guidewires, market leadership positioning, new product launches, and direct marketing initiatives.
In FY24, Asahi Intecc aims to achieve revenue of ¥100B (+11% YoY), a significant milestone. The company targets revenue of ¥110B and an operating profit margin of 23–25% in FY26.
Asahi Intecc is expected to be a continued beneficiary of global procedure volume recovery. The company is likely to achieve its medium-term business plan ahead of schedule.


2024 High Conviction: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Procedure Volume Recovery to Accelerate Growth

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-johnson" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1132:1" rel="noopener">Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US)</a> entered into a definitive agreement to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shockwave-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28730:1" rel="noopener">Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US)</a> for $335/share in cash or an enterprise value of $13.1B.</li>
<li>Offer price represents 4.7% premium over yesterday’s closing price or around 19% premium over the undisturbed price. The deal is expected to close by mid-2024.</li>
<li>With no product overlap and competition concern, the deal is expected to get regulatory approval. With reasonable deal valuation, shareholders approval is also expected.</li>
</ul>



Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) for $335/share in cash or an enterprise value of $13.1B.
Offer price represents 4.7% premium over yesterday’s closing price or around 19% premium over the undisturbed price. The deal is expected to close by mid-2024.
With no product overlap and competition concern, the deal is expected to get regulatory approval. With reasonable deal valuation, shareholders approval is also expected.


Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)’s Acquisition Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axonics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36996:1" rel="noopener">Axonics (AXNX US)</a> believes that the U.S. sacral neuromodulation market is now worth of ~$800M, which is poised to double over the next five years to $1.6B.</li>
<li>The company has been reporting superior revenue growth since 2020. Axonics raised 2023 revenue guidance to $358M, up 32% YoY. The company has become adjusted EBITDA positive in 2022.</li>
<li>With superior product portfolio in terms of patient satisfaction, longer product life, and smaller size, Axonics is the stronger player in the U.S. duopoly sacral neuromodulation market.</li>
</ul>



Axonics (AXNX US) believes that the U.S. sacral neuromodulation market is now worth of ~$800M, which is poised to double over the next five years to $1.6B.
The company has been reporting superior revenue growth since 2020. Axonics raised 2023 revenue guidance to $358M, up 32% YoY. The company has become adjusted EBITDA positive in 2022.
With superior product portfolio in terms of patient satisfaction, longer product life, and smaller size, Axonics is the stronger player in the U.S. duopoly sacral neuromodulation market.


Axonics (AXNX US): Large Underserved Market And Superior Portfolio Ensure Multi-Year Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives</li>
<li>This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).</li>
</ul>


The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives
This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).


"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

United States

Penumbra, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices. The Company offers peripheral vascular and neurovascular devices that help patients suffering from stroke and other neurovascular diseases. Penumbra operates in the United States.

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Penumbra (PEN US)

Penumbra Inc: Initiation Of Coverage - A Tale Of Cautious Innovation! - Major Drivers

This is our first report on Penumbra, a global healthcare major. The company reported its fourth quarter and annual earnings on its conference...

Baptista Research

2024 High Conviction: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Procedure Volume Recovery to Accelerate Growth

Asahi Intecc is poised for double-digit sales growth through FY26, driven by strong market demand for guidewires, market leadership positioning,...

Tina Banerjee

Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)’s Acquisition Offer

J&J to acquire Shockwave Medical for $335 per share. With no product overlap, the deal is expected to receive regulatory and shareholder...

Tina Banerjee

Axonics (AXNX US): Large Underserved Market And Superior Portfolio Ensure Multi-Year Growth

Axonics predicts the U.S. sacral neuromodulation market will double to $1.6B in the next five years. The company is reporting strong revenue...

Tina Banerjee

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value Poised to Outperform?; Watching Semiconductors $SOXX $XSD and Banks $KRE $KBE for breakage....

Vermilion Research

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Penumbra Inc: Initiation Of Coverage - A Tale Of Cautious Innovation! - Major Drivers

This is our first report on Penumbra, a global healthcare major. The company reported its fourth quarter and annual earnings on its conference...

Baptista Research

2024 High Conviction: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Procedure Volume Recovery to Accelerate Growth

Asahi Intecc is poised for double-digit sales growth through FY26, driven by strong market demand for guidewires, market leadership positioning,...

Tina Banerjee

Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)’s Acquisition Offer

​J&J to acquire Shockwave Medical for $335 per share. With no product overlap, the deal is expected to receive regulatory and shareholder...

Tina Banerjee

Axonics (AXNX US): Large Underserved Market And Superior Portfolio Ensure Multi-Year Growth

​Axonics predicts the U.S. sacral neuromodulation market will double to $1.6B in the next five years. The company is reporting strong revenue...

Tina Banerjee

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value Poised to Outperform?; Watching Semiconductors $SOXX $XSD and Banks $KRE $KBE for breakage....

Vermilion Research

J&J to acquire Shockwave Medical for $335 per share. With no product overlap, the deal is expected to receive regulatory and shareholder...

Axonics predicts the U.S. sacral neuromodulation market will double to $1.6B in the next five years. The company is reporting strong revenue...