Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Bank Results Decline Linked Quarter: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, continues to feel the challenges of a slowing mainland Chinese economy. For 2Q21, PAB reported results of CNY 7.5 bn – decreasing CNY 2.7 bn (26.4%) linked quarter. From our vantage point, higher loss provisions and weaker net interest income weighed heavily on results; and*Negative Credit Delta Could Accelerate Capital Raise: By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs have accelerated 102.2% annualized - up from 53.6% in 1Q21. Assuming the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 16 bn. This shortfall represents about two quarter of pre-tax earnings.

*Bank Results Decline Linked Quarter: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, continues to feel the challenges of a slowing mainland Chinese economy. For 2Q21, PAB reported results of CNY 7.5 bn – decreasing CNY 2.7 bn (26.4%) linked quarter. From our vantage point, higher loss provisions and weaker net interest income weighed heavily on results; and*Negative Credit Delta Could Accelerate Capital Raise: By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs have accelerated 102.2% annualized - up from 53.6% in 1Q21. Assuming the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 16 bn. This shortfall represents about two quarter of pre-tax earnings.   

Ping An Insurance – Credit Mixed, But Still Worrisome

China Merchants Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

*2Q21 Bottom-Line Sees Cracks: China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] reported 2Q21 results of CNY 29.1 bn, decreasing CNY 2.9 bn (9.0%) linked quarter, driven by negative operating jaws, a decline net fees and commissions, and higher provisions, tracking weaker credit quality; and *Credit Wall of Worry Continues To Grow: Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at an Indian bank pace of CNY 20.3 bn or 150.2% annualized versus CNY 18.9 bn or 138.5% at 1Q21. Although CMB’s reserve cover still remains quite robust, the net new NPL ratio trajectory suggests that reserve cover of NPLs will drop to something more in line with a typical mainland Chinese bank.

*2Q21 Bottom-Line Sees Cracks: China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] reported 2Q21 results of CNY 29.1 bn, decreasing CNY 2.9 bn (9.0%) linked quarter, driven by negative operating jaws, a decline net fees and commissions, and higher provisions, tracking weaker credit quality; and *Credit Wall of Worry Continues To Grow: Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at an Indian bank pace of CNY 20.3 bn or 150.2% annualized versus CNY 18.9 bn or 138.5% at 1Q21. Although CMB’s reserve cover still remains quite robust, the net new NPL ratio trajectory suggests that reserve cover of NPLs will drop to something more in line with a typical mainland Chinese bank.

China Merchants Bank – Now Negative Operating Jaws

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further; and*Clarification Was Necessary: Uncertainties surrounding the definition of local state-owned entity (SOE) with implicit financing support from the government has already led to an aggressive impact on lending. Numerous local infrastructure SOEs have subsidiaries with some form of implicit local government debt support, and without financing Document 15 would have had even more significant consequences. Still over 50% of LGFVs remain affected.

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further; and*Clarification Was Necessary: Uncertainties surrounding the definition of local state-owned entity (SOE) with implicit financing support from the government has already led to an aggressive impact on lending. Numerous local infrastructure SOEs have subsidiaries with some form of implicit local government debt support, and without financing Document 15 would have had even more significant consequences. Still over 50% of LGFVs remain affected.

China Banks – Some Clarity On LGFV Financing

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further;  and*No Let Up In Sight: Coupled with the structural reforms of an increase in risk-based capital minimums for certain state banks, the partial bank Wealth Management Product (WMP) resolution, and the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, these tightening measures should act to contain some of the out of control financial risk within the mainland Chinese financial system.

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further;  and*No Let Up In Sight: Coupled with the structural reforms of an increase in risk-based capital minimums for certain state banks, the partial bank Wealth Management Product (WMP) resolution, and the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, these tightening measures should act to contain some of the out of control financial risk within the mainland Chinese financial system.

*Positive Operating Jaws: China Everbright Bank (6818.HK) [CEB] reported 1Q21 results of CNY 11.5 bn, increasing CNY 3.3 bn (40.1%) linked quarter. When we exclude securities gains, results were less robust coming in at CNY 8.5 bn, but still improving CNY 1.8 bn (27.4%). Results were driven by CEB’s positive operating jaws, as revenues improved CNY 2.6 bn (7.7%) while costs declined CNY 660 mn (6.1%); and*Credit Wall Continues To Grow: Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at Indian bank pace of CNY 11.5 bn or 110.8% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserve are short in the neighborhood of CNY 103 mn which represents about three years of 1Q20 core operating results. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 77%.

*Positive Operating Jaws: China Everbright Bank (6818.HK) [CEB] reported 1Q21 results of CNY 11.5 bn, increasing CNY 3.3 bn (40.1%) linked quarter. When we exclude securities gains, results were less robust coming in at CNY 8.5 bn, but still improving CNY 1.8 bn (27.4%). Results were driven by CEB’s positive operating jaws, as revenues improved CNY 2.6 bn (7.7%) while costs declined CNY 660 mn (6.1%); and*Credit Wall Continues To Grow: Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at Indian bank pace of CNY 11.5 bn or 110.8% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserve are short in the neighborhood of CNY 103 mn which represents about three years of 1Q20 core operating results. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 77%. 

China Everbright Bank – Credit Remains Troublesome

China

The People's Bank of China is the central bank of the People's Republic of China. The Company formulates and implements monetary policy and supervises and regulates the financial industry. The People's Bank of China conducts business in China.

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People’s Bank Of China (PBCZ CH)

Ping An Insurance – Credit Mixed, But Still Worrisome

PING AN INSURANCE: Ping An Bank reported a 26.4% QOQ results decline for 2Q21 reflecting higher provisions. Credit is challenged as net new NPLs...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Merchants Bank – Now Negative Operating Jaws

CHINA MERCHANTS BANK: CMB reported QOQ 2Q21 results decline of 9.0% driven by negative operating jaws, a decline net fees and commissions, and...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks – Some Clarity On LGFV Financing

CHINA BANKS: Recently the CBIRC issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of LGFV via Document 15. Clarification was needed given...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks – Screws Tighten On LGFVs

CHINA BANKS: Recently the CBIRC issued guidance on implicit LGFV debt via Document 15 – further tightening the screws on mainland China's financial...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Everbright Bank – Credit Remains Troublesome

CHINA EVERBRIGHT BANK: Operating results grew 27.4% QOQ, driven by positive operating jaws. Credit continues to weaken and the loss reserve...

Thomas J. Monaco

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