Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>To build on our earlier work on the insurance space -- and as we search for beta-neutral relative value plays -- we look at PICC Group-H's SOTP valuation.</li>
<li>The group's life and health business has historically traded at a steep implicit discount to China Life-H, perhaps deservedly so. But price dislocations do occur from time to time.</li>
<li>We share our cheat sheet on how we approach these opportunities, which are often good for a quick 10% trade. As usual, we highlight the potential risks as well.</li>
</ul>


To build on our earlier work on the insurance space -- and as we search for beta-neutral relative value plays -- we look at PICC Group-H's SOTP valuation.
The group's life and health business has historically traded at a steep implicit discount to China Life-H, perhaps deservedly so. But price dislocations do occur from time to time.
We share our cheat sheet on how we approach these opportunities, which are often good for a quick 10% trade. As usual, we highlight the potential risks as well.


PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PICC P&amp;C was a shelter for investors in 2022, as its earnings were largely shielded from the pandemic. However, momentum has shifted in favor of the rest of the sector.</li>
<li>As the reopening story tails off, we expect the stock's performance to recouple to the broader H-Financials index. </li>
<li>Valuation is undemanding, but the same can be said of almost any other stock in the space. If the HKD7.25/share resistance level breaks, we may see a major correction.</li>
</ul>


PICC P&amp;C was a shelter for investors in 2022, as its earnings were largely shielded from the pandemic. However, momentum has shifted in favor of the rest of the sector.
As the reopening story tails off, we expect the stock's performance to recouple to the broader H-Financials index. 
Valuation is undemanding, but the same can be said of almost any other stock in the space. If the HKD7.25/share resistance level breaks, we may see a major correction.


PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  </li>
<li>SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. </li>
<li>As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.</li>
</ul>


The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.


China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

<ul>
<li>We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.</li>
<li>Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.</li>
<li>We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.</li>
</ul>


We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.
We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.


China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.1% as of Jan 13th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.1ppt week on week, led by real estate, information technology, communication services and offset by utilities, financials, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Fuyao Glass, Shenhua, Minsheng, Yankuang Energy, China Longyuan, Flat Glass.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.1% as of Jan 13th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.1ppt week on week, led by real estate, information technology, communication services and offset by utilities, financials, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Fuyao Glass, Shenhua, Minsheng, Yankuang Energy, China Longyuan, Flat Glass.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 13th): Fuyao Glass, Shenhua, Minsheng, Yankuang Energy, China Longyuan

China

The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited, through its subsidiaries, offers a range of property and casualty insurance products. The Company also offers asset management services for a variety of customers throughout China.

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People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)

PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average

PICC Group / PICC P&C are an interesting pair that often provides investors with short windows for relative value trades. From the group's SOTP...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?

The long PICC P&C / short the rest of H-share financials trade began to unwind in Oct 2022. As the reopening story tails off, we expect the stock's...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 13th): Fuyao Glass, Shenhua, Minsheng, Yankuang Energy, China Longyuan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Fuyao Glass, Shenhua, Minsheng, Yankuang Energy, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)