European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Conocophillips is set to acquire Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal (0.2550 COP US per 1 MRO US) valued at $22.5 billion ($30.33/share), including $5,379 million in net debt.</li>
<li>Most of the frenzy in the US oil industry has focused on the consolidation within the Permian Basin, a maturing region that offers opportunities to reduce costs and increase profitability.</li>
<li>The acquisition of Marathon will add highly complementary acreage to ConocoPhillips’ existing U.S. onshore portfolio. Spread as of 4 June is 2.6%/4.7% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by late Q4).</li>
</ul>


Conocophillips is set to acquire Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal (0.2550 COP US per 1 MRO US) valued at $22.5 billion ($30.33/share), including $5,379 million in net debt.
Most of the frenzy in the US oil industry has focused on the consolidation within the Permian Basin, a maturing region that offers opportunities to reduce costs and increase profitability.
The acquisition of Marathon will add highly complementary acreage to ConocoPhillips’ existing U.S. onshore portfolio. Spread as of 4 June is 2.6%/4.7% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by late Q4).


ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In the first quarter of 2024, Permian Resources, led by co-CEOs Will Hickey and James Walter, achieved production and free cash flow above expectations, integrated Earthstone ahead of schedule, increased its annual synergy target by $50 million, and executed on accretive mergers and acquisitions with around $270 million of acquisitions announced that quarter.</li><li>Notably, they reported total production of 320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and oil production of 152,000 barrels of oil per day.</li><li>To maintain a robust balance sheet, the company minimized its financial leverage to approximately 1x and increased its liquidity to over $2 billion.</li></ul>

In the first quarter of 2024, Permian Resources, led by co-CEOs Will Hickey and James Walter, achieved production and free cash flow above expectations, integrated Earthstone ahead of schedule, increased its annual synergy target by $50 million, and executed on accretive mergers and acquisitions with around $270 million of acquisitions announced that quarter.Notably, they reported total production of 320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and oil production of 152,000 barrels of oil per day.To maintain a robust balance sheet, the company minimized its financial leverage to approximately 1x and increased its liquidity to over $2 billion.

Permian Resources Corporation: Consistent D&C Efficiency Improvement & Accretive Transactions Are Driving Its Recent Performance! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>This is our first report on Permian Resources, a Delaware-based independent oil and natural gas company.</li><li>The company reported its Q4 and full-year 2023 earnings with significant growth and progress.</li><li>The company finished the year delivering industry-leading returns, exceeding both internal and external expectations.</li></ul>

This is our first report on Permian Resources, a Delaware-based independent oil and natural gas company.The company reported its Q4 and full-year 2023 earnings with significant growth and progress.The company finished the year delivering industry-leading returns, exceeding both internal and external expectations.

Permian Resources Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage - 5 Major Drivers

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.</li><li>Microsoft’s declaration in January 2023 that AI would emerge as the next computing platform coupled with Nvidia’s shocking earnings guide up last quarter, coupled with a weaker dollar and decline in bond yields, provided fuel in the first half of the year for the technology sector and garnered investor eyeballs to anything closely associated with AI.</li><li>However, on Microsoft’s most recent earnings call on July 25th, CFO Amy Hood stated “Even with strong demand and a leadership position, growth from our AI services will be gradual as Azure AI scales and our copilots reach general availability dates. So for FY '24, the impact will be weighted towards H2.”</li></ul>

The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.Microsoft’s declaration in January 2023 that AI would emerge as the next computing platform coupled with Nvidia’s shocking earnings guide up last quarter, coupled with a weaker dollar and decline in bond yields, provided fuel in the first half of the year for the technology sector and garnered investor eyeballs to anything closely associated with AI.However, on Microsoft’s most recent earnings call on July 25th, CFO Amy Hood stated “Even with strong demand and a leadership position, growth from our AI services will be gradual as Azure AI scales and our copilots reach general availability dates. So for FY '24, the impact will be weighted towards H2.”

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

United States

Permian Resources Corporation operates as an oil and gas company. The Company focuses on the development of unconventional oil and associated liquid-rich natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin, as well as offers geology, engineering, and drilling services. Permian Resources serves customers in the United States.

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Permian Resources (PR US)

ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Permian Resources Corporation: Consistent D&C Efficiency Improvement & Accretive Transactions Are Driving Its Recent Performance! - Major Drivers

In the first quarter of 2024, Permian Resources, led by co-CEOs Will Hickey and James Walter, achieved production and free cash flow above...

Baptista Research

Permian Resources Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage - 5 Major Drivers

This is our first report on Permian Resources, a Delaware-based independent oil and natural gas company. The company reported its Q4 and full-year...

Baptista Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/14

The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

​Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Permian Resources Corporation: Consistent D&C Efficiency Improvement & Accretive Transactions Are Driving Its Recent Performance! - Major Drivers

In the first quarter of 2024, Permian Resources, led by co-CEOs Will Hickey and James Walter, achieved production and free cash flow above...

Baptista Research

Permian Resources Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage - 5 Major Drivers

This is our first report on Permian Resources, a Delaware-based independent oil and natural gas company. The company reported its Q4 and full-year...

Baptista Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/14

The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...