Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>A larger-than-usual cargo with a combination of light- and heavy-grade Group II base oils was set to load from Taiwan in early-April, with India the likely destination.</li><li>The large shipment and a surge in flows in second-half March pointed to a muted impact so far from any feedstock supply issues.</li><li>Cargo of Group III base oils loaded from Indonesia in late March before heading to northwest Europe, set to arrive around mid-May.</li></ul>

A larger-than-usual cargo with a combination of light- and heavy-grade Group II base oils was set to load from Taiwan in early-April, with India the likely destination.The large shipment and a surge in flows in second-half March pointed to a muted impact so far from any feedstock supply issues.Cargo of Group III base oils loaded from Indonesia in late March before heading to northwest Europe, set to arrive around mid-May.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 2 April

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.</li>
</ul>


Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.
We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.
While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.


Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

<ul><li>The Middle East conflict is driving structural disruption to the global base oils market, with lubricants prices rising up to 30% in a six-to-nine month scenario and more than 50% in a worst case, Rosefield Energy Tech said</li><li>Blenders faced simultaneous pressure from feedstock shortages, additives constraints, freight costs and currency depreciation, with local and regional blenders most exposed</li><li>Rosefield recommended diversifying feedstock sources, shifting to regional hubs and adopting more dynamic pricing to reduce risk</li></ul>

The Middle East conflict is driving structural disruption to the global base oils market, with lubricants prices rising up to 30% in a six-to-nine month scenario and more than 50% in a worst case, Rosefield Energy Tech saidBlenders faced simultaneous pressure from feedstock shortages, additives constraints, freight costs and currency depreciation, with local and regional blenders most exposedRosefield recommended diversifying feedstock sources, shifting to regional hubs and adopting more dynamic pricing to reduce risk

Middle East War Triggers Structural Disruption In Base Oils Market

<ul><li>Several more Group II cargoes loaded from Taiwan before heading to Southeast Asia.</li><li>The pick-up in shipments in second-half March lifted total exports above typical monthly levels.</li><li>The rise contrasted with a slump in Singapore’s exports in the past week.</li></ul>

Several more Group II cargoes loaded from Taiwan before heading to Southeast Asia.The pick-up in shipments in second-half March lifted total exports above typical monthly levels.The rise contrasted with a slump in Singapore’s exports in the past week.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 27 March

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

China

PetroChina is a Chinese oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil and natural gas, as well as new energy operations. It also refines crude oil and petroleum products, produces and markets petrochemical products, and sells natural gas. The company was founded on November 5, 1999, and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 2 April

A larger-than-usual cargo with a combination of light- and heavy-grade Group II base oils was set to load from Taiwan in early-April, with India...

Base Oil News

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still...

Vermilion Research

Middle East War Triggers Structural Disruption In Base Oils Market

Blenders faced simultaneous pressure from feedstock shortages, additives constraints, freight costs and currency depreciation, with local and...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 27 March

Several more Group II cargoes loaded from Taiwan before heading to Southeast Asia. The pick-up in shipments in second-half March lifted total...

Base Oil News

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

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Market Cap (USDm)

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