Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were up small on the week. The spivvier the better. HK was up better, especially among the liquid names.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK$21.4bn in the fourth post-holiday week vs +HK$17bn the week before. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.</li>
<li>The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was a net buy the second week in a row. </li>
</ul>


A shares were up small on the week. The spivvier the better. HK was up better, especially among the liquid names.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK$21.4bn in the fourth post-holiday week vs +HK$17bn the week before. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.
The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was a net buy the second week in a row. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

<ul>
<li>A shares were up small on the week. HK stock indices were down. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$17.1bn in the third post-holiday week. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND continues to buy high-div SOEs. ex-div is still three months away, and given the new KPIs discussed late January by SASAC official, these still seem to be appropriate targets.</li>
</ul>


A shares were up small on the week. HK stock indices were down. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$17.1bn in the third post-holiday week. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.
SOUTHBOUND continues to buy high-div SOEs. ex-div is still three months away, and given the new KPIs discussed late January by SASAC official, these still seem to be appropriate targets.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Mar 2024); Big Net Buys of SOEs, Finally Tencent a Net Buy

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.2% as of Mar 8th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, industrials, financials and offset by information technology, consumer discretionary, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.2% as of Mar 8th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, industrials, financials and offset by information technology, consumer discretionary, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 8th): CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.</li>
<li>Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.</li>
<li>Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.</li>
</ul>


The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.
Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.
Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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PetroChina (857 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect saw big net buying again. This week over HK$21bn. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every single day since the end of CNY. Starting...

Travis Lundy

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Mar 2024); Big Net Buys of SOEs, Finally Tencent a Net Buy

Hong Kong SOUTHBOUND Connect saw strong net buying again. SB has net purchased every day since the end of the Chinese New Year holiday. Tencent was...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 8th): CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto

Analysis of A-H premium changes on 146 stocks shows average premium of 123.2% on Mar 8th, with a -1.4ppt. We highlight changes for for CNOOC, Air...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

We see the HSCEI 2024 div futures slightly underpriced with the potential for more upside. There are risks to the trade, mainly from the banks and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect saw big net buying again. This week over HK$21bn. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every single day since the end of CNY. Starting...

Travis Lundy

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Mar 2024); Big Net Buys of SOEs, Finally Tencent a Net Buy

Hong Kong SOUTHBOUND Connect saw strong net buying again. SB has net purchased every day since the end of the Chinese New Year holiday. Tencent was...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 8th): CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto

​Analysis of A-H premium changes on 146 stocks shows average premium of 123.2% on Mar 8th, with a -1.4ppt. We highlight changes for for CNOOC, Air...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

We see the HSCEI 2024 div futures slightly underpriced with the potential for more upside. There are risks to the trade, mainly from the banks and...

Brian Freitas

Analysis of A-H premium changes on 146 stocks shows average premium of 123.2% on Mar 8th, with a -1.4ppt. We highlight changes for for CNOOC, Air...