HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a>'s net profit grew 7.9% in 2H24, accelerating from 2.6% in 1H24. It is encouraging to see the dividend payout ratio increase by 2pp YoY.</li>
<li>An increase in the adoption of the residential price linkage system is positive for the dollar margin, while the distortion from E&amp;P expiry will no longer impact earnings. </li>
<li>With net cash equals HK$2.56/share, or 31% of the share price, such financial strength is unmatched by peers. Its PER valuations are also inexpensive.</li>
</ul>



Kunlun Energy (135 HK)'s net profit grew 7.9% in 2H24, accelerating from 2.6% in 1H24. It is encouraging to see the dividend payout ratio increase by 2pp YoY.
An increase in the adoption of the residential price linkage system is positive for the dollar margin, while the distortion from E&amp;P expiry will no longer impact earnings. 
With net cash equals HK$2.56/share, or 31% of the share price, such financial strength is unmatched by peers. Its PER valuations are also inexpensive.


Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Remains Very Decent

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise.</li><li>FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise.FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

<ul><li>Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.</li><li>Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.</li><li>Outperformance of Europe base oils prices vs prices in US and Asia points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in Europe than in those other markets.</li></ul>

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.Outperformance of Europe base oils prices vs prices in US and Asia points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in Europe than in those other markets.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

<ul><li>Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices stay high versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>High margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.</li><li>Light-grade base oils prices stay low vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, cutting incentive for refiners to raise output.</li></ul>

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices stay high versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.High margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.Light-grade base oils prices stay low vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, cutting incentive for refiners to raise output.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 24 March

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could hold steady even with high heavy-grade prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at start of Q2 2025.</li><li>Asia’s lube demand likely to peak in month of March, before holding at lower levels over following months.</li><li>Lube demand in Q2 2025 likely to remain well above levels in Q1 2025 even with slowdown at start of Q2 2025.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could hold steady even with high heavy-grade prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at start of Q2 2025.Asia’s lube demand likely to peak in month of March, before holding at lower levels over following months.Lube demand in Q2 2025 likely to remain well above levels in Q1 2025 even with slowdown at start of Q2 2025.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 24 March

China

PetroChina Company Limited operates as an oil and gas company. The Company offers crude oil and oil products exploration, development, production and marketing. PetroChina also markets petrochemical products and derivative chemicals.

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PetroChina (601857 CH)

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Remains Very Decent

Kunlun's net profit grew 7.9% in 2H24, accelerating from 2.6% in 1H24. Its increased dividend payout ratio, strong financial position and positive...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices. Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025. Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 24 March

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices stay high versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. High margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals,...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 24 March

Asia’s base oils demand could hold steady even with high heavy-grade prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at start of Q2 2025. Asia’s lube...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Remains Very Decent

​Kunlun's net profit grew 7.9% in 2H24, accelerating from 2.6% in 1H24. Its increased dividend payout ratio, strong financial position and positive...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices. Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025. Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 24 March

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices stay high versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. High margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals,...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 24 March

Asia’s base oils demand could hold steady even with high heavy-grade prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at start of Q2 2025. Asia’s lube...

Base Oil News

Kunlun's net profit grew 7.9% in 2H24, accelerating from 2.6% in 1H24. Its increased dividend payout ratio, strong financial position and positive...