External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Rong Viet Securities

Rong Viet Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

Petrovietnam Fert & Chemical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We value DPM shares using a 50/50 blend of two valuation methodologies: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and P/B comparable.</li><li>Our 12-month target price for DPM is VND 24,600/share, implying a forward P/B of 1.43x/1.40x for 2025-2026</li><li>DPM is currently Vietnam’s leading urea fertilizer producer, commanding an average domestic urea market share of 38%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We value DPM shares using a 50/50 blend of two valuation methodologies: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and P/B comparable.Our 12-month target price for DPM is VND 24,600/share, implying a forward P/B of 1.43x/1.40x for 2025-2026DPM is currently Vietnam’s leading urea fertilizer producer, commanding an average domestic urea market share of 38%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

We specialize in consulting both individual and institutional clients, providing them with effective financial solutions that are tailored to their specific needs.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Tougher US trade policies with China and potential retaliation could renew a trade war that weighs on global trade and oil consumption: US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of a 60% tariff on Chinese goods raises risks of a new trade war with China.</li><li>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that if higher tariffs affect a “sizeable swath” of world trade by mid-2025, global output could be reduced by 0.8% in 2025 and by 1.3% in 2026.</li><li>A UBS economist estimates that a 60% tariff on Chinese imports would cut China’s GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points a year later.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tougher US trade policies with China and potential retaliation could renew a trade war that weighs on global trade and oil consumption: US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of a 60% tariff on Chinese goods raises risks of a new trade war with China.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that if higher tariffs affect a “sizeable swath” of world trade by mid-2025, global output could be reduced by 0.8% in 2025 and by 1.3% in 2026.A UBS economist estimates that a 60% tariff on Chinese imports would cut China’s GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points a year later.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil & Gas Sector Update - Lowering oil price forecasts on increased risks to global trade

<ul><li>We maintain our average Middle East urea price forecast for 2024F at USD320/tonne (-10.5% vs 2023 and ~20% higher vs the pre-COVID level). </li><li>The average Middle east urea price in 9M 2024 was USD331/tonne (-5% YoY).</li><li>In Q3 2024, Middle East urea prices rose to an average of USD341/tonne (+9% QoQ, -7% YoY), driven by: (1) India’s urea import tender of ~2.5 million tonnes, with prices ranging from USD364 to USD390 per tonne; (2) escalating geopolitical tensions in the Arab Gulf, affecting key producers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran; and (3) increasing natural gas prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain our average Middle East urea price forecast for 2024F at USD320/tonne (-10.5% vs 2023 and ~20% higher vs the pre-COVID level). The average Middle east urea price in 9M 2024 was USD331/tonne (-5% YoY).In Q3 2024, Middle East urea prices rose to an average of USD341/tonne (+9% QoQ, -7% YoY), driven by: (1) India’s urea import tender of ~2.5 million tonnes, with prices ranging from USD364 to USD390 per tonne; (2) escalating geopolitical tensions in the Arab Gulf, affecting key producers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran; and (3) increasing natural gas prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Urea Sector - Medium-term outlook remains bright for DPM & DCM

<ul><li>We lower our average 2024F Brent oil price assumption by 3.6% to USD80/bbl.</li><li>YTD to October 3, the average Brent oil price was USD82/bbl, slightly lower than our previous 2024F forecast of USD83/bbl.</li><li>However, we anticipate subdued oil prices in Q4, driven by weak demand from China, which is expected to outweigh concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East and a projected oil deficit from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) — defined as a situation where global oil production falls short of global consumption.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We lower our average 2024F Brent oil price assumption by 3.6% to USD80/bbl.YTD to October 3, the average Brent oil price was USD82/bbl, slightly lower than our previous 2024F forecast of USD83/bbl.However, we anticipate subdued oil prices in Q4, driven by weak demand from China, which is expected to outweigh concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East and a projected oil deficit from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) — defined as a situation where global oil production falls short of global consumption.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil & Gas Sector - Lowering 2024F Oil Price, Raising 2025F Forecast

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Viettel Construction (CTR VN) and EVN Finance (EVF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% and that results in a one-way trade of US$27m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.</li>
<li>There will be over US$1m to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinhomes-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27079:1" rel="noopener">Vinhomes (VHM VN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-for-foreign-trade-of-vietnam" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23054:1" rel="noopener">Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Viettel Construction (CTR VN) and EVN Finance (EVF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% and that results in a one-way trade of US$27m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
There will be over US$1m to buy in Vinhomes (VHM VN), Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN) and Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN). 


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Other Changes

Vietnam

Petrovietnam Fertilizer and Chemical JSC manufactures fertilizers. The Company specializes in producing and trading in fertilizers, liquid ammoniac, industrial gas, and other chemicals. Petrovietnam Fertilizer and Chemical JSC also trades electricity.

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Petrovietnam Fert & Chemical (DPM VN)

DPM - Steadily Moving Forward

We forecast DPM’s NPAT-MI to surge 132% YoY in 2025 and maintaining a stable 5% CAGR for 2026–2029, driven by rising urea selling prices.

Rong Viet Securities

Oil & Gas Sector Update - Lowering oil price forecasts on increased risks to global trade

Tougher US trade policies with China and potential retaliation could renew a trade war that weighs on global trade and oil consumption: US...

Vietcap

Urea Sector - Medium-term outlook remains bright for DPM & DCM

We maintain our average Middle East urea price forecast for 2024F at USD320/tonne (-10.5% vs 2023 and ~20% higher vs the pre-COVID level). The...

Vietcap

Oil & Gas Sector - Lowering 2024F Oil Price, Raising 2025F Forecast

We lower our average 2024F Brent oil price assumption by 3.6% to USD80/bbl. YTD to October 3, the average Brent oil price was USD82/bbl, slightly...

Vietcap

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Other Changes

Viettel Construction and EVN Finance will be added to the index at the close on 21 June. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% and that results in a...

Brian Freitas

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