Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>During the month of February 2021, one of the most anticipated TOPIX Inclusion candidates, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> completed its TOPIX Inclusion Event. We also saw four new names announce their TSE1 moves during this month, among which was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faithnetwork-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29132:1" rel="noopener">FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP)</a> the third stock out of the four pre-event bets highlighted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-trade-summary-sep-2020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43700" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Sep 2020</a>. During this month, we also introduced new pre-event picks to be added to our list in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusions-who-is-ready-3-0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48306" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is READY? 3.0</a>. </p><p>In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 4 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of March/April 2021 and 17 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of January 2021 and February 2021. </p>

During the month of February 2021, one of the most anticipated TOPIX Inclusion candidates, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) completed its TOPIX Inclusion Event. We also saw four new names announce their TSE1 moves during this month, among which was FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP) the third stock out of the four pre-event bets highlighted in TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Sep 2020. During this month, we also introduced new pre-event picks to be added to our list in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is READY? 3.0. In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 4 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of March/April 2021 and 17 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of January 2021 and February 2021. 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinxin-fertility-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28003:1" rel="noopener">Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)</a>while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-real-estate-master-fu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22930:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-jreit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:314:1" rel="noopener">Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmg-mori-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11125:1" rel="noopener">Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharma-foods-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10530:1" rel="noopener">Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.</p></div><div>
<p>In Korea, there was large short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pearl-abyss-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24391:1" rel="noopener">Pearl Abyss (263750 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-chemical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8757:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Chemical (011170 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </p>
<p>Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.</p>
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) and Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and BYD (1211 HK). Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP), freee (4478 JP) and Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP) while shorts decreased on Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP) and Pharma Foods International (2929 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.
In Korea, there was large short covering in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Pearl Abyss (263750 KS), Lotte Chemical (011170 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). 
Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.


Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

Pharma Foods International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pharma Foods has enjoyed 45% compound annual sales growth over the past five years. </li>
<li>This fiscal year, the company is guiding for sales to grow 160% to ¥40bn. </li>
<li>Growth is being driven by, Newmo, a hair growth product.</li>
<li>Longer-term, the tie-up with Mitsubishi Tanabe highlights the potential of the bio-tech pipeline. </li>
<li>TSE First Section inclusion and the stand-out growth metrics could see the stock attract a more institutional following.</li>
</ul>


Pharma Foods has enjoyed 45% compound annual sales growth over the past five years. 
This fiscal year, the company is guiding for sales to grow 160% to ¥40bn. 
Growth is being driven by, Newmo, a hair growth product.
Longer-term, the tie-up with Mitsubishi Tanabe highlights the potential of the bio-tech pipeline. 
TSE First Section inclusion and the stand-out growth metrics could see the stock attract a more institutional following.


Japan Small Cap Growth: Pharma Foods - Hair Growth = Stock Growth

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pharma Foods International / Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharma-foods-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10530:1" rel="noopener">Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)</a> as a biotech company is just over 20 years old. They develop and sell functional food ingredients, and according to a sponsored article they published in Newsweek last year, their three major areas of R&amp;D are immunity, ageing, and the nervous system. Functional food ingredients are ones where the chemical comes from a food, but where the chemical is then applied in more condensed use for a non-calorific pharmaceutical or nutraceutical product. </p><p>Products include Pharma-GABA (Gamma-aminobutyric acid - an amino acid naturally contained in veg and fruit, created by fermented lactic acid bacteria), Bonepep, Ovopron (egg yolk globulin), Delicious Catechin (a chemical in green tea), RunPep (a peptide used in sports nutrition which is the result of hydrolizing egg white with enzymes), and enriched Folic Acid Egg, as well as iHA, a substance that stimulates secretion of hyaluronic acid. Apart from eggs, they use bananas, rice, sesame seeds, and green tea.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.pharmafoods.co.jp/uploaded/files/e64847c232c753f6898b129e045b6b08c248c96d.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">advertorial in Newsweek</a> quoted the President of PFI, Dr Mujo KIM, as saying that they hoped to reach ¥30bn of sales by 2025 and ¥50bn of sales by 2030 (the functional food business globally is growing at high single digits and is expected to be $275bn globally in 2025). And PFI just <a href="https://www.pharmafoods.co.jp/irlib/20210126_6c8209469200e6a9954f84da1858ae47.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signed a deal with Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma</a> last week for development of a candidate antibody to target autoimmune disease.</p><p>Since 2014, they have an online sales business, selling branded products under the "Tamagokichi" brand. They sell supplements and cosmetics using the same biotech functional food ingredients. Sales growth has been VERY strong recently. It is, in that sense If revenue in Q2-Q4 matches that of Q1, they will reach their 2030 revenue target this fiscal year (to July 2021). </p><h2>The NEW News</h2><p>Today they announced that the TSE had approved them to move to the TSE First Section on 12 February. </p><p>Regular readers know what that means - a TOPIX inclusion!</p>

Pharma Foods International (2929 JP) as a biotech company is just over 20 years old. They develop and sell functional food ingredients, and according to a sponsored article they published in Newsweek last year, their three major areas of R&amp;D are immunity, ageing, and the nervous system. Functional food ingredients are ones where the chemical comes from a food, but where the chemical is then applied in more condensed use for a non-calorific pharmaceutical or nutraceutical product. Products include Pharma-GABA (Gamma-aminobutyric acid - an amino acid naturally contained in veg and fruit, created by fermented lactic acid bacteria), Bonepep, Ovopron (egg yolk globulin), Delicious Catechin (a chemical in green tea), RunPep (a peptide used in sports nutrition which is the result of hydrolizing egg white with enzymes), and enriched Folic Acid Egg, as well as iHA, a substance that stimulates secretion of hyaluronic acid. Apart from eggs, they use bananas, rice, sesame seeds, and green tea.The advertorial in Newsweek quoted the President of PFI, Dr Mujo KIM, as saying that they hoped to reach ¥30bn of sales by 2025 and ¥50bn of sales by 2030 (the functional food business globally is growing at high single digits and is expected to be $275bn globally in 2025). And PFI just signed a deal with Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma last week for development of a candidate antibody to target autoimmune disease.Since 2014, they have an online sales business, selling branded products under the "Tamagokichi" brand. They sell supplements and cosmetics using the same biotech functional food ingredients. Sales growth has been VERY strong recently. It is, in that sense If revenue in Q2-Q4 matches that of Q1, they will reach their 2030 revenue target this fiscal year (to July 2021). The NEW NewsToday they announced that the TSE had approved them to move to the TSE First Section on 12 February. Regular readers know what that means - a TOPIX inclusion!

TOPIX Inclusion: Pharma Foods Int'l (2929 JP) - Stupendous Revenue Growth Vs Ridiculous Volume/Float

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/599/original/2020-09-08_05-33-14.png?1599510807" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157599"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<p></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/600/original/2020-09-08_05-34-00.png?1599510849" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157600"></figure><p></p> Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TWO 'FOODS'</strong> - Of the eight companies reporting results, only two have positive trailing-twelve-month and year-on-year quarterly revenue and operating income growth - health food company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharma-foods-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10530:1" rel="noopener">Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)</a> and rice cake maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sato-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17549:1" rel="noopener">Sato Foods (2923 JP)</a>. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES - 75%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>75%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and <strong>50%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores<strong>. 25%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>8 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 25% Positive / 0% Neutral / 75% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -5.5 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -3.9% Quarter YoY / -0.4% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.8 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses</strong>: 25%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>4 Annual • 2 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 25% Positive / 0% Neutral / 75% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 50% Positive / 0% Neutral / 50% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.7 points</li>
</ul></div>



 Source for all charts: Japan AnalyticsTWO 'FOODS' - Of the eight companies reporting results, only two have positive trailing-twelve-month and year-on-year quarterly revenue and operating income growth - health food company Pharma Foods International (2929 JP) and rice cake maker Sato Foods (2923 JP). DAILY STATSPERCENTAGES - 75% of quarterly results, 75% of annual forecasts/revisions and 50% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 25% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.8 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 25% Positive / 0% Neutral / 75% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -5.5 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -3.9% Quarter YoY / -0.4% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.8 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
4 Annual • 2 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 25% Positive / 0% Neutral / 75% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 50% Positive / 0% Neutral / 50% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​07 - A Tale of 'Two Foods' & Funeral Photos

Japan

Pharma Foods International Co.,Ltd. produces and sells bioengineered foods for commercial use.  The Company researches and develops physiologically functional foods.

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Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Feb 2021

TOPIX Inclusion summary for Feb 2021 including performance of Feb inclusions, and March-April inclusions from announcement. Change to recommended...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Japan Small Cap Growth: Pharma Foods - Hair Growth = Stock Growth

Pharma Foods has enjoyed 45% compound annual sales growth over the past five years and this year growth is expected to exceed 160%. Key driver is...

Mark Chadwick

TOPIX Inclusion: Pharma Foods Int'l (2929 JP) - Stupendous Revenue Growth Vs Ridiculous Volume/Float

Pharma Foods Intl is a biotech firm studying/producing high-tech supplement materials from basic foods. 95% of revenues come from its own exploding...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/07 - A Tale of 'Two Foods' & Funeral Photos

Source for all charts: Japan Analytics

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Feb 2021

TOPIX Inclusion summary for Feb 2021 including performance of Feb inclusions, and March-April inclusions from announcement. Change to recommended...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Japan Small Cap Growth: Pharma Foods - Hair Growth = Stock Growth

Pharma Foods has enjoyed 45% compound annual sales growth over the past five years and this year growth is expected to exceed 160%. Key driver is...

Mark Chadwick

TOPIX Inclusion: Pharma Foods Int'l (2929 JP) - Stupendous Revenue Growth Vs Ridiculous Volume/Float

Pharma Foods Intl is a biotech firm studying/producing high-tech supplement materials from basic foods. 95% of revenues come from its own exploding...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​07 - A Tale of 'Two Foods' & Funeral Photos

Source for all charts: Japan Analytics

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/07 - A Tale of 'Two Foods' & Funeral Photos