Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Solid March Trading Result: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported strong FY 3Q21 securities and derivatives volumes due to improving market caps and velocity. Securities value traded and average daily trading vale (ADTV) increased 50% and 24% MOM in March, respectively. Derivative volumes also improved 31% MOM to 23.2 mn contracts, reaching a new peak since July 2020; and *A Wrench Thrown Into SGX’s SPAC Plan:  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued accounting guidance for SPACs, calling warrant issuance by SPACs liabilities rather than equity instruments. This could disrupt new SPAC filings, and certainly throw a wrench into SGX’s SPAC plans.

*Solid March Trading Result: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported strong FY 3Q21 securities and derivatives volumes due to improving market caps and velocity. Securities value traded and average daily trading vale (ADTV) increased 50% and 24% MOM in March, respectively. Derivative volumes also improved 31% MOM to 23.2 mn contracts, reaching a new peak since July 2020; and *A Wrench Thrown Into SGX’s SPAC Plan:  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued accounting guidance for SPACs, calling warrant issuance by SPACs liabilities rather than equity instruments. This could disrupt new SPAC filings, and certainly throw a wrench into SGX’s SPAC plans.

Singapore Exchange – Solid Quarter, But SPAC Setback

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Equity Bottom-Up

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

*Mainland Chinese Stock Exchange Powerhouse: According to Reuters, mainland China is contemplating the establishment of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center; and  *Here Comes The Pain Trade: If mainland China is successful this time around (and we think that they will be), it is probably pretty fair to say that the HKEX/mainland China growth story will have come to an abrupt end. In terms of where we are with valuation, HKEX’s P/E has exploded in the face of weaker volumes on the expectation of future US ADR listings. The increase in the stamp duty to cover Hong Kong’s tax shortfall only adds to the misery that HKEX may encounter.

*Mainland Chinese Stock Exchange Powerhouse: According to Reuters, mainland China is contemplating the establishment of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center; and  *Here Comes The Pain Trade: If mainland China is successful this time around (and we think that they will be), it is probably pretty fair to say that the HKEX/mainland China growth story will have come to an abrupt end. In terms of where we are with valuation, HKEX’s P/E has exploded in the face of weaker volumes on the expectation of future US ADR listings. The increase in the stamp duty to cover Hong Kong’s tax shortfall only adds to the misery that HKEX may encounter.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Building The HKEX Coffin

*Poor Quarter: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 4Q20 earnings of HKD 2.9 bn, declining HKD 522 mn (15.6%) linked quarter. Results were challenged on many fronts, as evidenced by HKEX’ negative operating jaws during the period, whereby revenues declined HKD 210 mn (4.0%) whilst expenses jumped HKD 187 mn (13.2%)– pushing its C/I ratio higher by 480 bp to 31.4%; and*Stamp Dutied: Despite the poor showing during 4Q20, the real story for HKEX is the issue of the stamp duty which likely will impact earnings and market sentiment for the foreseeable future. Given the financial stress of the pandemic on the finances of the Hong Kong government,  on February 24, 2021 it was announced that there would be a 3 bp or 30% increase in the stamp duty to help offset the government budget deficit.

*Poor Quarter: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 4Q20 earnings of HKD 2.9 bn, declining HKD 522 mn (15.6%) linked quarter. Results were challenged on many fronts, as evidenced by HKEX’ negative operating jaws during the period, whereby revenues declined HKD 210 mn (4.0%) whilst expenses jumped HKD 187 mn (13.2%)– pushing its C/I ratio higher by 480 bp to 31.4%; and*Stamp Dutied: Despite the poor showing during 4Q20, the real story for HKEX is the issue of the stamp duty which likely will impact earnings and market sentiment for the foreseeable future. Given the financial stress of the pandemic on the finances of the Hong Kong government,  on February 24, 2021 it was announced that there would be a 3 bp or 30% increase in the stamp duty to help offset the government budget deficit.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Hitting The Wall

*New Household Investors For HKEX:  SAFE is likely to make various changes to the current regulations which to allow greater individual participation in stock incentive schemes of overseas listed companies with the removal of quotas on F/X purchases. Enabling greater participation by mainland Chinese in outbound investments could be highly  supportive Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] trading volume going forward; and  *New CEO Should Focus On Mainland China: We are hopeful that the new appointed CEO Nicolas Aguzin (effective May 24, 2021) doesn’t allow himself to get distracted by his former swashbuckling colleagues from J.P. Morgan Chase &amp; Co. (JPM.US) at HKEX and their absurd deal making and that he can just focus on meeting both near and long-term targets.

*New Household Investors For HKEX:  SAFE is likely to make various changes to the current regulations which to allow greater individual participation in stock incentive schemes of overseas listed companies with the removal of quotas on F/X purchases. Enabling greater participation by mainland Chinese in outbound investments could be highly  supportive Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] trading volume going forward; and  *New CEO Should Focus On Mainland China: We are hopeful that the new appointed CEO Nicolas Aguzin (effective May 24, 2021) doesn’t allow himself to get distracted by his former swashbuckling colleagues from J.P. Morgan Chase &amp; Co. (JPM.US) at HKEX and their absurd deal making and that he can just focus on meeting both near and long-term targets.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – China, Not Deals Are Way Forward

*New CEO: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] announced that it has appointed Mr. Nicolas Aguzin as its next CEO - effective May 24, 2021.This is an interesting hire, as Mr. Aguzin has virtually no exchange experience and is seemingly not a Mandarin speaker; and*Focus, Focus, Focus:  Let’s just hope and pray that the new CEO doesn’t come from a  swashbuckling deal team.  To be clear, we believe that HKEx has enormous potential provided that it can avoid franchise transforming deals every half decade.

*New CEO: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] announced that it has appointed Mr. Nicolas Aguzin as its next CEO - effective May 24, 2021.This is an interesting hire, as Mr. Aguzin has virtually no exchange experience and is seemingly not a Mandarin speaker; and*Focus, Focus, Focus:  Let’s just hope and pray that the new CEO doesn’t come from a  swashbuckling deal team.  To be clear, we believe that HKEx has enormous potential provided that it can avoid franchise transforming deals every half decade. 

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – No Experience Necessary

Philippines

The Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE) operates as the national stock exchange of the Philippines, providing listing, trading, market data, clearing, and settlement services. It facilitates the trading of various securities, including shares of stock, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The company is headquartered in Taguig City, Philippines, and has been in operation since 1927, including its previous forms.

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Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)

Singapore Exchange – Solid Quarter, But SPAC Setback

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE: SGX reported strong securities/derivatives volumes on improving market caps/velocity. The U.S. SEC, however, issued SPAC...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Building The HKEX Coffin

HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: Mainland China is contemplating a new stock exchange to attract overseas firms. If mainland China is successful,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Hitting The Wall

HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: HKEX reported a 15.6% QOQ decline in 4Q20 earnings, given the period's negative operating jaws. The story is the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – China, Not Deals Are Way Forward

HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: SAFE is making changes to regulations and allow greater individual participation in stock incentive schemes. We...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – No Experience Necessary

HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: HKEX appointed Mr. Nicolas Aguzin as CEO. This is an interesting hire, as Mr. Aguzin has no exchange experience. We...

Thomas J. Monaco

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52-week Range

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