Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oil supply exceeded demand by the smallest December margin in three years, leaving the market with less buffer as Middle East disruption spreads</li><li>Global supply reached a four-year high in 2025, but expectations of a 2026 surplus have reversed as the conflict disrupts shipments and threatens output</li><li>China’s elevated February output cushions the market against supply shocks, but lower Group III production leaves that segment tighter</li></ul>

Global base oil supply exceeded demand by the smallest December margin in three years, leaving the market with less buffer as Middle East disruption spreadsGlobal supply reached a four-year high in 2025, but expectations of a 2026 surplus have reversed as the conflict disrupts shipments and threatens outputChina’s elevated February output cushions the market against supply shocks, but lower Group III production leaves that segment tighter

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 13 Mar '26

<ul><li>Large Group II cargo with combination of light and heavy grades set to load from Taiwan this week, with India the likely destination.</li><li>Cargo loadings from Taiwan show signs of rising so far in March vs February, but remain well below December and January levels.</li><li>Cargo of Group III base oils loaded from Indonesia in early-March before heading to Europe, set to arrive around mid-April.</li></ul>

Large Group II cargo with combination of light and heavy grades set to load from Taiwan this week, with India the likely destination.Cargo loadings from Taiwan show signs of rising so far in March vs February, but remain well below December and January levels.Cargo of Group III base oils loaded from Indonesia in early-March before heading to Europe, set to arrive around mid-April.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 13 March

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night</li>
</ul>


Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end
Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night


Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

<ul><li>Asia's January base oils exports rise to a 17-month high, as firm demand limits surplus build-up but leaves the market exposed to Middle East supply disruption.</li><li>South Korea's output hits a three-year high, building stocks ahead of plant maintenance and potential crude supply disruption.</li><li>Global Group III imports from the Middle East hit a six-year high in 2025, deepening reliance on supply lines now facing acute disruption.</li></ul>

Asia's January base oils exports rise to a 17-month high, as firm demand limits surplus build-up but leaves the market exposed to Middle East supply disruption.South Korea's output hits a three-year high, building stocks ahead of plant maintenance and potential crude supply disruption.Global Group III imports from the Middle East hit a six-year high in 2025, deepening reliance on supply lines now facing acute disruption.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 6 Mar '26

<ul><li>Group II cargo with a combination of light and heavy grades set to load from Taiwan in coming days following a slowdown in flows in early March.</li><li>Taiwan's February cargo loadings fell sharply from January, pointing to a drop in total exports last month to the lowest in around a year.</li><li>Large cargo of premium-grade base oils loaded from South Korea in early March bound for the US Gulf coast, set to arrive in first-half April.</li></ul>

Group II cargo with a combination of light and heavy grades set to load from Taiwan in coming days following a slowdown in flows in early March.Taiwan's February cargo loadings fell sharply from January, pointing to a drop in total exports last month to the lowest in around a year.Large cargo of premium-grade base oils loaded from South Korea in early March bound for the US Gulf coast, set to arrive in first-half April.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 6 March

United States

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

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Phillips 66 (PSX US)

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 13 Mar '26

Global base oil supply exceeded demand by the smallest December margin in three years, leaving the market with less buffer as Middle East...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 13 March

Large Group II cargo with combination of light and heavy grades set to load from Taiwan this week, with India the likely destination. Cargo...

Base Oil News

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 6 Mar '26

Asia's January base oils exports rise to a 17-month high, as firm demand limits surplus build-up but leaves the market exposed to Middle East...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 6 March

Group II cargo with a combination of light and heavy grades set to load from Taiwan in coming days following a slowdown in flows in early...

Base Oil News

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