Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>50-Day MAs have held on SPX and QQQ, but we are concerned of a prolonged consolidation -- particularly as crude oil, gasoline (UGA), and Energy (XLE) appear to have bottomed.</li>
<li>QQQ/Technology remains our primary concern; we continue to believe a consolidation through mid-to-late-August is likely amid ongoing choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
50-Day MAs have held on SPX and QQQ, but we are concerned of a prolonged consolidation -- particularly as crude oil, gasoline (UGA), and Energy (XLE) appear to have bottomed.
QQQ/Technology remains our primary concern; we continue to believe a consolidation through mid-to-late-August is likely amid ongoing choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names


Energy (XLE), Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global surplus rebounded to its largest April level in three years.</li><li>Asia's surplus widened to a four-month high as supply continued outpacing slower demand growth.</li><li>Europe's production surplus narrowed to a six-month low as lower output tightened regional availability.</li></ul>

Global surplus rebounded to its largest April level in three years.Asia's surplus widened to a four-month high as supply continued outpacing slower demand growth.Europe's production surplus narrowed to a six-month low as lower output tightened regional availability.

Global Base Oil Surplus Widens In April As Disruption Buying Eases

<ul><li>The full impact of the Middle East disruption became visible across global markets as the last in-transit cargoes cleared, exposing widening shortages in premium-grade supply.</li><li>China delivered the market's strongest supply response, lifting Group III output to a 15-month high in June, but the additional production remained insufficient to replace lost Middle East volumes.</li><li>Asia's export recovery stayed constrained as weak Singapore exports offset stronger Chinese production, limiting surplus supplies available to overseas buyers.</li></ul>

The full impact of the Middle East disruption became visible across global markets as the last in-transit cargoes cleared, exposing widening shortages in premium-grade supply.China delivered the market's strongest supply response, lifting Group III output to a 15-month high in June, but the additional production remained insufficient to replace lost Middle East volumes.Asia's export recovery stayed constrained as weak Singapore exports offset stronger Chinese production, limiting surplus supplies available to overseas buyers.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 10 Jul '26

<ul><li>Global supply rose for a sixth straight month from a year earlier despite easing from March's five-year high.</li><li>Asia accounted for more than 55% of global production, its highest monthly share in more than five years.</li><li>Europe's production fell to a six-month low, accounting for a larger share of the monthly decline than the Middle East.</li></ul>

Global supply rose for a sixth straight month from a year earlier despite easing from March's five-year high.Asia accounted for more than 55% of global production, its highest monthly share in more than five years.Europe's production fell to a six-month low, accounting for a larger share of the monthly decline than the Middle East.

Global Base Oils Supply Holds Firm In April Despite Middle East

<ul><li>Disruption-driven stock-building unwound across major markets, improving supply availability faster than buyers had anticipated</li><li>Supply returned to surplus in markets such as Argentina as recovering production and weaker demand reversed recent shortages</li><li>Group I again demonstrated the benefits of a broader production base, contrasting with tighter Group II and especially Group III supply</li></ul>

Disruption-driven stock-building unwound across major markets, improving supply availability faster than buyers had anticipatedSupply returned to surplus in markets such as Argentina as recovering production and weaker demand reversed recent shortagesGroup I again demonstrated the benefits of a broader production base, contrasting with tighter Group II and especially Group III supply

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 3 July '26

United States

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

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Phillips 66 (PSX US)

Energy (XLE), Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

Energy $XLE, Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise; Tech remains a concern, and we believe consolidation...

Vermilion Research

Global Base Oil Surplus Widens In April As Disruption Buying Eases

Global surplus rebounded to its largest April level in three years. Asia's surplus widened to a four-month high as supply continued outpacing...

Base Oil News

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 10 Jul '26

The full impact of the Middle East disruption became visible across global markets as the last in-transit cargoes cleared, exposing widening...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Supply Holds Firm In April Despite Middle East

Global supply rose for a sixth straight month from a year earlier despite easing from March's five-year high. Asia accounted for more than 55% of...

Base Oil News

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 3 July '26

Disruption-driven stock-building unwound across major markets, improving supply availability faster than buyers had anticipated Supply returned...

Base Oil News

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