Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PicPay is a Brazilian fintech offering a range of digital banking and financial services including payments to consumer and small and medium business clients</li>
<li>No valuation range has been released yet for PicPay’s IPO, but press reports indicate a USD500m potential offering; we assume a post-money market capitalisation at IPO of USD2.5bn</li>
<li>PicPay is higher quality than Banco PAN, especially in terms of NPL ratio, but PicPay falls short, in terms of its operating metrics, versus Inter and well short of Nubank</li>
</ul>


PicPay is a Brazilian fintech offering a range of digital banking and financial services including payments to consumer and small and medium business clients
No valuation range has been released yet for PicPay’s IPO, but press reports indicate a USD500m potential offering; we assume a post-money market capitalisation at IPO of USD2.5bn
PicPay is higher quality than Banco PAN, especially in terms of NPL ratio, but PicPay falls short, in terms of its operating metrics, versus Inter and well short of Nubank


PicPay Pre-IPO Research – Initial Thoughts on Its Valuation Versus LatAm Fintechs

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

<ul>
<li>Brazilian fintech leader preparing a Q1 2026 Nasdaq IPO, PicS is one of Brazil’s largest digital wallets with 42m quarterly active consumers and strong engagement growth.</li>
<li>Scaled two-sided ecosystem spanning consumer banking, credit, insurance, investments, SMB payments, commerce, travel, ads, and benefits, driving cross-sell and network effects.</li>
<li>Strong growth profile and market opportunity, with TPV up 29% YoY, rising profitability, and exposure to a large Brazilian digital finance TAM exceeding R$700bn.</li>
</ul>


Brazilian fintech leader preparing a Q1 2026 Nasdaq IPO, PicS is one of Brazil’s largest digital wallets with 42m quarterly active consumers and strong engagement growth.
Scaled two-sided ecosystem spanning consumer banking, credit, insurance, investments, SMB payments, commerce, travel, ads, and benefits, driving cross-sell and network effects.
Strong growth profile and market opportunity, with TPV up 29% YoY, rising profitability, and exposure to a large Brazilian digital finance TAM exceeding R$700bn.


PicS N.V. (PICS): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Brazilian Digital Wallet Provider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Inter, our “pain trade” in 2Q 2026, remains our sole buy in EM neobanks; Inter offers a balanced business model, with improving execution and controlled credit delinquency, alongside attractive valuations</li>
<li>Nubank delivers strong operational returns along with its high activity rate, yet we stay neutral due to challenging credit quality trends and valuations; we view PicPay and Agibank with caution</li>
<li>We include K Bank of South Korea and Superbank of Indonesia in our EM neobanks coverage; K Bank looks attractively valued, but we believe the business model is high risk</li>
</ul>


Inter, our “pain trade” in 2Q 2026, remains our sole buy in EM neobanks; Inter offers a balanced business model, with improving execution and controlled credit delinquency, alongside attractive valuations
Nubank delivers strong operational returns along with its high activity rate, yet we stay neutral due to challenging credit quality trends and valuations; we view PicPay and Agibank with caution
We include K Bank of South Korea and Superbank of Indonesia in our EM neobanks coverage; K Bank looks attractively valued, but we believe the business model is high risk


EM Neobanks – Stick with Inter (INTR US) As Our Sole Buy Rating

<ul>
<li>We re-instate our buy on Inter for its healthy credit quality credentials, improving operating returns and its attractive valuations to premium earnings growth potential</li>
<li>Nubank remains a neutral - due to valuation - but is one to watch for its strong operational returns supported by its high activity rate; Kakaobank is also on watch</li>
<li>PicPay is deep value but its rapid deterioration in credit quality and cost of risk are serious challenges; we believe that recent IPO Agibank is another relatively challenged Brazilian neobank</li>
</ul>


We re-instate our buy on Inter for its healthy credit quality credentials, improving operating returns and its attractive valuations to premium earnings growth potential
Nubank remains a neutral - due to valuation - but is one to watch for its strong operational returns supported by its high activity rate; Kakaobank is also on watch
PicPay is deep value but its rapid deterioration in credit quality and cost of risk are serious challenges; we believe that recent IPO Agibank is another relatively challenged Brazilian neobank


EM Neobanks – Re-Instating the Buy Rating on Inter (INTR US)

<ul>
<li>We add PayPay to our coverage and to our payments company buy list for its GARP qualities</li>
<li>We also add Klarna to the buy list, for its deep value credentials across the broader peer group, and also fro its improving EBITDA margin</li>
<li>We keep Affirm on the sell list, creating an effective pairs trade in the BNPL space with a buy on Klarna and a sell on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We add PayPay to our coverage and to our payments company buy list for its GARP qualities
We also add Klarna to the buy list, for its deep value credentials across the broader peer group, and also fro its improving EBITDA margin
We keep Affirm on the sell list, creating an effective pairs trade in the BNPL space with a buy on Klarna and a sell on Affirm


PayPay (PAYP) Post-IPO and Payment Companies Update

Brazil

PicS N.V. operates as a digital financial services company that provides a digital wallet and application for individuals and businesses in Brazil. The company offers a range of transactional products, including Pix instant payment system, peer-to-peer transfers, bill payments, and various loan and insurance products. It also provides QR code payment solutions, banking services, and advertising platforms for small and medium-sized businesses. PicS N.V. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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PicS (PICS US)

PicPay Pre-IPO Research – Initial Thoughts on Its Valuation Versus LatAm Fintechs

We base Brazil fintech PicPay's initial IPO valuation on those of LatAm fintech peers. We see it as higher quality than Banco PAN but it lags...

Victor Galliano

PicS N.V. (PICS): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Brazilian Digital Wallet Provider

Brazilian fintech leader PicS is set for a Q1 2026 Nasdaq IPO with 42m active users and a diverse ecosystem driving growth and profitability in...

IPO Boutique

EM Neobanks – Stick with Inter (INTR US) As Our Sole Buy Rating

Inter is our buy in EM neobank, offering a balanced business model, with improving execution, controlled NPLs and attractive valuations; Nubank is...

Victor Galliano

EM Neobanks – Re-Instating the Buy Rating on Inter (INTR US)

Upgrading Inter to buy for its sound credit quality and valuations-to-growth, global benchmark Nubank is one to watch; PicPay and Agibank face NPL...

Victor Galliano

PayPay (PAYP) Post-IPO and Payment Companies Update

Adding GARP play PayPay and deep value Klarna to buy list for their growth potential, while keeping Affirm on sell list for pairs trade strategy...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PicPay Pre-IPO Research – Initial Thoughts on Its Valuation Versus LatAm Fintechs

We base Brazil fintech PicPay's initial IPO valuation on those of LatAm fintech peers. We see it as higher quality than Banco PAN but it lags...

Victor Galliano

PicS N.V. (PICS): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Brazilian Digital Wallet Provider

​Brazilian fintech leader PicS is set for a Q1 2026 Nasdaq IPO with 42m active users and a diverse ecosystem driving growth and profitability in...

IPO Boutique

EM Neobanks – Stick with Inter (INTR US) As Our Sole Buy Rating

Inter is our buy in EM neobank, offering a balanced business model, with improving execution, controlled NPLs and attractive valuations; Nubank is...

Victor Galliano

EM Neobanks – Re-Instating the Buy Rating on Inter (INTR US)

​Upgrading Inter to buy for its sound credit quality and valuations-to-growth, global benchmark Nubank is one to watch; PicPay and Agibank face NPL...

Victor Galliano

PayPay (PAYP) Post-IPO and Payment Companies Update

​Adding GARP play PayPay and deep value Klarna to buy list for their growth potential, while keeping Affirm on sell list for pairs trade strategy...

Victor Galliano

Brazilian fintech leader PicS is set for a Q1 2026 Nasdaq IPO with 42m active users and a diverse ecosystem driving growth and profitability in...

Upgrading Inter to buy for its sound credit quality and valuations-to-growth, global benchmark Nubank is one to watch; PicPay and Agibank face NPL...

Adding GARP play PayPay and deep value Klarna to buy list for their growth potential, while keeping Affirm on sell list for pairs trade strategy...