Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK)</a> has launched its HKEx listing atHK$24.30-27.70 per share to raise up to US$80 million, materially below previous expectations of a US$500 million raise.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81963" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82037" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case</a> and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82648" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: Valuation First Look</a>.</li>
<li>The China A Share peers have derated due to the sharp sell-off in the last few days. Nevertheless, Biogene is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate. </li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK) has launched its HKEx listing atHK$24.30-27.70 per share to raise up to US$80 million, materially below previous expectations of a US$500 million raise.
We previously discussed the IPO in Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case, Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case andGiant Biogene IPO: Valuation First Look.
The China A Share peers have derated due to the sharp sell-off in the last few days. Nevertheless, Biogene is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK)</a>, a leading professional skin care product manufacturer, is set to launch a US$500 million HKEx IPO.  </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81963" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82037" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Giant Biogene's potential valuation range. </li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK), a leading professional skin care product manufacturer, is set to launch a US$500 million HKEx IPO.  
We previously discussed the IPO in Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case and Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Giant Biogene's potential valuation range. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Considering the geopolitical relationship over the last 100 years, it doesn’t take much for Chinese people to start developing an anti-Japan sentiment.</li>
<li>The relationship between the two countries was already reaching nervy levels, before Tokyo’s decision to snub the 2022 Winter Olympics.</li>
<li>We think the Japanese government’s decision to not send a government delegation to the Winter Olympics could be all that is needed to spark an anti-Japan sentiment among Chinese consumers.</li>
</ul>


Considering the geopolitical relationship over the last 100 years, it doesn’t take much for Chinese people to start developing an anti-Japan sentiment.
The relationship between the two countries was already reaching nervy levels, before Tokyo’s decision to snub the 2022 Winter Olympics.
We think the Japanese government’s decision to not send a government delegation to the Winter Olympics could be all that is needed to spark an anti-Japan sentiment among Chinese consumers.


Japan’s Boycott of Winter Olympics Could Be the Tipping Point

Japan

PIGEON CORPORATION manufactures and sells baby care goods.  The Company also produces maternity and elder care products.

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Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Giant Biogene IPO: Valuation Insights

The China A Share peers have derated due to the sharp sell-off in the last few days. Nevertheless, Biogene is attractively valued at the IPO price...

Arun George

Giant Biogene IPO: Valuation First Look

Giant Biogene will launch its US$500 million HKEx IPO this week. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at its potential...

Arun George

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Japan’s Boycott of Winter Olympics Could Be the Tipping Point

The relationship between the two countries was already reaching nervy levels, before Tokyo’s decision to snub the 2022 Winter Olympics. With the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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