Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>China has announced that it will allow couples to have up to three children, after census data showed a steep decline in birth rates. Previously, we analysed the possible impact on the Japanese baby and childcare company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pigeon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1" rel="noopener">Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)</a> as a result of the above policy shift. This time around, we analyse the impact on the Japanese personal care company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a>, whose share price rose 1.5% in the last two trading days.</p>

China has announced that it will allow couples to have up to three children, after census data showed a steep decline in birth rates. Previously, we analysed the possible impact on the Japanese baby and childcare company Pigeon Corp (7956 JP) as a result of the above policy shift. This time around, we analyse the impact on the Japanese personal care company Kao Corp (4452 JP), whose share price rose 1.5% in the last two trading days.

China’s Three Child Policy Beneficiaries Part 2 Kao Corporation: Finally Off The Leash?

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Health And Happiness (H&H) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In this insight, we discuss various socio-demographic factors which suggest that China's announced 3-child policy is unlikely to reverse the shifting demographic trends - accelerated aging and fall in the birth rate - in the medium term. We also discuss why <strong>we prefer companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20582:1" rel="noopener">Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK)</a> that have a diverse product portfolio including adult/elder care Vs. pure-play Infant/child care stocks. </strong></p><p>The current trend of slow down in births in China will lead to slower growth in the market for Infant/child care products. <strong>Expect companies focussed predominantly on infant/child care in China to witness a slow down in growth rate and consequent derating in valuation. </strong></p><p>After its highly anticipated population data in early May, China has now announced a shift in policy allowing couples to have up to three children in an attempt to arrest the declining birth rate. It is unlikely to have much of an impact going by the experience from China's shift to the 2-child policy earlier (2016). There are multiple social and economic factors, apart from birth restrictions, that have led to China's extremely low birth rate of 1.3; these factors are unlikely to change easily. </p>

In this insight, we discuss various socio-demographic factors which suggest that China's announced 3-child policy is unlikely to reverse the shifting demographic trends - accelerated aging and fall in the birth rate - in the medium term. We also discuss why we prefer companies like Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK) that have a diverse product portfolio including adult/elder care Vs. pure-play Infant/child care stocks. The current trend of slow down in births in China will lead to slower growth in the market for Infant/child care products. Expect companies focussed predominantly on infant/child care in China to witness a slow down in growth rate and consequent derating in valuation. After its highly anticipated population data in early May, China has now announced a shift in policy allowing couples to have up to three children in an attempt to arrest the declining birth rate. It is unlikely to have much of an impact going by the experience from China's shift to the 2-child policy earlier (2016). There are multiple social and economic factors, apart from birth restrictions, that have led to China's extremely low birth rate of 1.3; these factors are unlikely to change easily. 

China's 3-Child Policy Unlikely to Reverse Trend. Child-Care Stocks Can Derate, Prefer Diverse Plays

<ul>
<li>China has announced that it will allow couples to have up to three children, after census data showed a steep decline in birth rates. In a series of insights, we look at the Japanese companies that are bound to benefit from this policy shift.</li>
<li>The most direct beneficiary of this policy change is the Japanese baby and childcare company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pigeon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1" rel="noopener">Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)</a>, whose share price is up 1.5% this week since the announcement.</li>
</ul>


China has announced that it will allow couples to have up to three children, after census data showed a steep decline in birth rates. In a series of insights, we look at the Japanese companies that are bound to benefit from this policy shift.
The most direct beneficiary of this policy change is the Japanese baby and childcare company Pigeon Corp (7956 JP), whose share price is up 1.5% this week since the announcement.


China’s Three Child Policy Beneficiaries Part 1: Pigeon Corporation

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Capital Markets

Poppins Holdings Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poppins-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31056:1" rel="noopener">Poppins Holdings Inc (7358 JP)</a> , the provider of child and elderly care services in Japan has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Tokyo Exchange. The company will be issuing 1.1m new shares at the IPO while existing shareholders will issue 2.15m shares, and at the midpoint of the IPO pricing of JPY2,750 per share, the company will raise gross proceeds of JPY8.9bn (US$85.8m).</p><p>In our previous insight on the company’s IPO, we examined the company’s business model, segments and financials. In this insight, we discuss the company’s valuation.</p><p>Read our previous insight on the company's IPO:</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/poppins-ipo-well-positioned-to-benefit-from-japanese-demographic-trends" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46156" rel="noopener">Poppins IPO: Well Positioned to Benefit from Japanese Demographic Trends</a> </p>

Poppins Holdings Inc (7358 JP) , the provider of child and elderly care services in Japan has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Tokyo Exchange. The company will be issuing 1.1m new shares at the IPO while existing shareholders will issue 2.15m shares, and at the midpoint of the IPO pricing of JPY2,750 per share, the company will raise gross proceeds of JPY8.9bn (US$85.8m).In our previous insight on the company’s IPO, we examined the company’s business model, segments and financials. In this insight, we discuss the company’s valuation.Read our previous insight on the company's IPO:Poppins IPO: Well Positioned to Benefit from Japanese Demographic Trends 

Poppins IPO Valuation: Attractively Priced for a Growing Company

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-electronics-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4877:1" rel="noopener">Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Real Estate, Health Care, Communication Services and Financial stocks, and decreased on Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary names.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-denko-k-k" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pigeon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1" rel="noopener">Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/change-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27414:1" rel="noopener">Change Inc (3962 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1" rel="noopener">TDK Corp (6762 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Materials, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary names.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts were seen on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-jit-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12501:1" rel="noopener">Pan Jit International (2481 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elite-semiconductor-memory" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9373:1" rel="noopener">Elite Semiconductor Memory (3006 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macronix-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3247:1" rel="noopener">Macronix International (2337 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) and Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Want Want (151 HK). Shorts increased in Real Estate, Health Care, Communication Services and Financial stocks, and decreased on Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary names.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP), Pigeon Corp (7956 JP), Change Inc (3962 JP) and Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) while shorts decreased on Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP), TDK Corp (6762 JP) and Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Materials, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary names.In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts were seen on LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and Doosan Infracore (042670 KS) while shorts were covered on Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), LG Display (034220 KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Largan Precision (3008 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT), Pan Jit International (2481 TT) and Elite Semiconductor Memory (3006 TT) while shorts were covered on TSMC (2330 TT), Macronix International (2337 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Want Want, Showa Denko, NBF, LG Chem, AmoreCorp, Pegatron

Japan

PIGEON CORPORATION manufactures and sells baby care goods.  The Company also produces maternity and elder care products.

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Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)

China’s Three Child Policy Beneficiaries Part 2 Kao Corporation: Finally Off The Leash?

While cosmetics is on the path to a steady recovery, the hopes of returning revenue growth in Merries Diapers could help Kao to break the current...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China's 3-Child Policy Unlikely to Reverse Trend. Child-Care Stocks Can Derate, Prefer Diverse Plays

Expect slow down in China's population growth to persist. Pure play child care stocks could derate from slowing market growth. Prefer stocks with...

Devi Subhakesan

China’s Three Child Policy Beneficiaries Part 1: Pigeon Corporation

China has announced that it will allow couples to have up to three children, after census data showed a steep decline in birth rates. The most...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Poppins IPO Valuation: Attractively Priced for a Growing Company

Poppins, the provider of child and elderly care services in Japan has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Tokyo Exchange. In this insight,...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Want Want, Showa Denko, NBF, LG Chem, AmoreCorp, Pegatron

The Asia short report highlights large movements in weekly short interest across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan to be used as an input in trading...

Brian Freitas

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