External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>MLCF and PIOC have both notified board meetings scheduled for September 02, 2026. In our view, the meetings could potentially be related to the proposed merger, given that both companies have scheduled their meetings on the same day.</li><li>We have conducted our analysis to estimate the potential range of the swap ratio that could be considered between MLCF and PIOC.</li><li>Our analysis is based on the valuation framework prescribed under the SECP Guidelines for Mergers and Amalgamations, which outlines various valuation methodologies that may be used to determine a fair and reasonable share exchange ratio.</li></ul>

MLCF and PIOC have both notified board meetings scheduled for September 02, 2026. In our view, the meetings could potentially be related to the proposed merger, given that both companies have scheduled their meetings on the same day.We have conducted our analysis to estimate the potential range of the swap ratio that could be considered between MLCF and PIOC.Our analysis is based on the valuation framework prescribed under the SECP Guidelines for Mergers and Amalgamations, which outlines various valuation methodologies that may be used to determine a fair and reasonable share exchange ratio.

Pakistan Cement: MLCF & PIOC Possible Merger: We Expect SWAP Ratio in the Range of 2.1-2.6

Equity Bottom-Up

Maple Leaf Cement Factory / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MLCF announced its 4QFY26 result today, wherein, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs4.2bn (EPS: Rs4.07), up 17% YoY and 141% QoQ.</li><li>Earnings came higher than industry’s expectations due to higher gross margins.</li><li>We maintain our Buy stance on MLCF, which is currently trading at a FY27E P/E of 7.0x.</li></ul>

MLCF announced its 4QFY26 result today, wherein, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs4.2bn (EPS: Rs4.07), up 17% YoY and 141% QoQ.Earnings came higher than industry’s expectations due to higher gross margins.We maintain our Buy stance on MLCF, which is currently trading at a FY27E P/E of 7.0x.

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – 4QFY26 EPS at Rs4.07, FY26 EPS at Rs11.34 (Earnings Higher Than Industry’s Expectations)

<ul><li>MLCF announced its 3QFY26 result today, wherein, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs1.7bn (EPS: Rs1.69), down 37% YoY and 43% QoQ. This takes 9MFY26 earnings to Rs7.6bn (EPS: Rs7.27), slightly down by 3% YoY.</li><li>Earnings came lower than industry’s expectations due to higher than estimated finance cost and admin expenses.</li><li>To highlight, the published results also reflects consolidation impact of Pioneer cement acquisition which went into effect in Mid Feb 2026.</li></ul>

MLCF announced its 3QFY26 result today, wherein, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs1.7bn (EPS: Rs1.69), down 37% YoY and 43% QoQ. This takes 9MFY26 earnings to Rs7.6bn (EPS: Rs7.27), slightly down by 3% YoY.Earnings came lower than industry’s expectations due to higher than estimated finance cost and admin expenses.To highlight, the published results also reflects consolidation impact of Pioneer cement acquisition which went into effect in Mid Feb 2026.

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): 3QFY26 EPS At Rs1.69, 9MFY26 EPS At Rs7.27 (Earnings Lower Than Industry’s Expectations)

Attock Cement Pakistan / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Pakistan cement sector is currently trading at an EV/ton of US$39.6, while on FY26E EV/EBITDA basis, it is valued at 5.0x.</li><li>Within our coverage, DG Khan Cement (DGKC) is trading at an attractive EV/ton of US$13.2 and EV/EBITDA of 1.2x.</li><li>Kohat Cement (KOHC) is valued at EV/ton of US$25.4 and EV/EBITDA of 2.7x.</li></ul>

The Pakistan cement sector is currently trading at an EV/ton of US$39.6, while on FY26E EV/EBITDA basis, it is valued at 5.0x.Within our coverage, DG Khan Cement (DGKC) is trading at an attractive EV/ton of US$13.2 and EV/EBITDA of 1.2x.Kohat Cement (KOHC) is valued at EV/ton of US$25.4 and EV/EBITDA of 2.7x.

<ul><li>Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) has notified exchange regarding the acquisition price of a north based cement manufacturer Pioneer Cement (PIOC) at Rs478.43 per share which translates into Enterprise value of US$400mn, EV/Ton of US$76.9 at capacity of 5.2mn tons and EV/EBITDA of 9x at annual LTM EBITDA of Rs12.6bn, as per our calculation.</li><li>Similarly, another recent transaction of south based Attock Cement (ACPL) which is yet to be finalized, the market chatter suggests the pricing around Rs300-350, translating into EV/Ton of US$43-48/ton and EV to EBITDA of 8-9x.</li><li>We estimate, the replacement cost of a new brownfield plant in Pakistan is around US$50-60 per ton while for greenfield the cost is around US$90-100 per ton.</li></ul>

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) has notified exchange regarding the acquisition price of a north based cement manufacturer Pioneer Cement (PIOC) at Rs478.43 per share which translates into Enterprise value of US$400mn, EV/Ton of US$76.9 at capacity of 5.2mn tons and EV/EBITDA of 9x at annual LTM EBITDA of Rs12.6bn, as per our calculation.Similarly, another recent transaction of south based Attock Cement (ACPL) which is yet to be finalized, the market chatter suggests the pricing around Rs300-350, translating into EV/Ton of US$43-48/ton and EV to EBITDA of 8-9x.We estimate, the replacement cost of a new brownfield plant in Pakistan is around US$50-60 per ton while for greenfield the cost is around US$90-100 per ton.

Maple Leaf To Acquire Pioneer Cement At EV Of US$400mn; Takes PIOC EV/Ton To US$77, Sector EV/ton At US$54

Pakistan

Pioneer Cement Limited produces ordinary portland cement and sulphate resistant cement.

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Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC PA)

Pakistan Cement: MLCF & PIOC Possible Merger: We Expect SWAP Ratio in the Range of 2.1-2.6

MLCF and PIOC have both notified board meetings scheduled for September 02, 2026. In our view, the meetings could potentially be related to the...

Topline Securities

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – 4QFY26 EPS at Rs4.07, FY26 EPS at Rs11.34 (Earnings Higher Than Industry’s Expectations)

MLCF announced its 4QFY26 result today, wherein, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs4.2bn (EPS: Rs4.07), up 17% YoY and 141%...

Topline Securities

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): 3QFY26 EPS At Rs1.69, 9MFY26 EPS At Rs7.27 (Earnings Lower Than Industry’s Expectations)

MLCF announced its 3QFY26 result today, wherein, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs1.7bn (EPS: Rs1.69), down 37% YoY and 43% QoQ....

Topline Securities

Pakistan Listed Cement Comp Sheet

The Pakistan cement sector is currently trading at an EV/ton of US$39.6, while on FY26E EV/EBITDA basis, it is valued at 5.0x. Within our...

Topline Securities

Maple Leaf To Acquire Pioneer Cement At EV Of US$400mn; Takes PIOC EV/Ton To US$77, Sector EV/ton At US$54

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) has notified exchange regarding the acquisition price of a north based cement manufacturer Pioneer Cement (PIOC) at...

Topline Securities

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