Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>’s CEO, Masahiko Uotani has met with several reporters to discuss the company’s view on the cosmetics industry at a time Shiseido’s share price has underperformed the Topix and Nikkei indices by more than 8%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/236/665/original/image_43531005321634807122546.png?1634807123" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="236665"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Cap IQ</div>Uotani is expecting a sharp recovery in inbound revenue over the course of the next year. Even though Uotani says that he is less concerned about signs of an economic slowdown and concerns of tighter regulation in China, he is planning on hedging the China slowdown risk through acquisitions in the US and Europe.

Shiseido Company (4911 JP)’s CEO, Masahiko Uotani has met with several reporters to discuss the company’s view on the cosmetics industry at a time Shiseido’s share price has underperformed the Topix and Nikkei indices by more than 8%.Source: Cap IQUotani is expecting a sharp recovery in inbound revenue over the course of the next year. Even though Uotani says that he is less concerned about signs of an economic slowdown and concerns of tighter regulation in China, he is planning on hedging the China slowdown risk through acquisitions in the US and Europe.

Shiseido: Inbound Demand Could Rebound During The Next Twelve Months

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-anti-aging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34292:1" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)</a> is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands focusing on the skin cleansing segment. The company’s shares rose more than 350% from the IPO price during its first year on the mothers section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. However, valuation multiples remain towards the low side compared to peer multiples.</li>
<li>We think Premier Anti-Aging could re-rate towards the peer average multiples over the medium term. The downside risk is rather low for Premier Anti-Ageing but the share price momentum currently remains unsupportive. Thus, we would wait till a shift in the price momentum before considering a long position.</li>
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Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands focusing on the skin cleansing segment. The company’s shares rose more than 350% from the IPO price during its first year on the mothers section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. However, valuation multiples remain towards the low side compared to peer multiples.
We think Premier Anti-Aging could re-rate towards the peer average multiples over the medium term. The downside risk is rather low for Premier Anti-Ageing but the share price momentum currently remains unsupportive. Thus, we would wait till a shift in the price momentum before considering a long position.


Premier Anti-Aging: Up More than 300%, But Remains Undervalued on Fundamentals

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-anti-aging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34292:1" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)</a> is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands focusing on the skin cleansing segment. The company’s shares rose more than 350% from the IPO price during its first year on the mothers section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This was mainly driven by the excellent performance of Premier Anti-Aging’s main brand “Duo”, whose average monthly sales doubled from the pre-COVID level.Having previously analysed the growth prospects of the “Duo” brand; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/premier-anti-aging-company-s-duo-black-taking-the-market-by-storm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging Company’s Duo Black Taking the Market by Storm</a>, this insight takes a look at Premier Anti-Aging’s three supporting brands, which together generated around 15% of the company total revenue in 4QFY21.

Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands focusing on the skin cleansing segment. The company’s shares rose more than 350% from the IPO price during its first year on the mothers section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This was mainly driven by the excellent performance of Premier Anti-Aging’s main brand “Duo”, whose average monthly sales doubled from the pre-COVID level.Having previously analysed the growth prospects of the “Duo” brand; Premier Anti-Aging Company’s Duo Black Taking the Market by Storm, this insight takes a look at Premier Anti-Aging’s three supporting brands, which together generated around 15% of the company total revenue in 4QFY21.

Premier Anti-Aging Company: Sitrana & Canadel Can Become Strong Second-Tier Brands

<ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-anti-aging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34292:1" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)</a> is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands that focuses on the skin cleansing segment. The company was listed on the TSE mothers section in October last year at an IPO price of ¥4,140 per share. After a relatively slow start, the company’s shares rallied 353% to ¥18,740 per share by July 2021. Shares are currently trading at ¥15,060 a piece, around 20% below the previous peak.</li></ul>


Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands that focuses on the skin cleansing segment. The company was listed on the TSE mothers section in October last year at an IPO price of ¥4,140 per share. After a relatively slow start, the company’s shares rallied 353% to ¥18,740 per share by July 2021. Shares are currently trading at ¥15,060 a piece, around 20% below the previous peak.

Premier Anti-Aging Company Ageing Gracefully

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

Corporate Governance Research: POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS (4927)SUMMARY:POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS' corporate governance is slightly above average*. Although it may be a bit out of corporate governance, its financial performance in ROA and ROA remains lacking due to inefficiencies such as asset efficiency. On the other hand, we can say that Tobin's Q is over 3x and the share price is highly valued for its high profit margin on sales, such as maintaining 7.8% OP margin even in FY12/2020, which was affected by COVID-19 pandemic.The corporate governance of the Company cannot be described without mentioning that it is, after all, a founding family company. In terms of corporate governance practices, the following are commendable: no anti-takeover provisions, no policy holdings, strong board evaluation and board training policies, clear dividend policy, capital allocation and growth policy, and strong shareholder returns. On the other hand, what I do not appreciate are the matters related to human resources. The term of office for directors is two years instead of one year, the majority of the Board of Directors is composed of internal directors, the President chairs the Board of Directors meetings, the committees are advisory committees and are chaired by an internal director (probably the President), there is insufficient disclosure of compensation incentives, and the ratio of variable compensation to fixed compensation and the objectivity of the linkage to medium-term business performance are lacking. There is room for improvement in terms of the ratio of variable to fixed remuneration and objectivity regarding the linkage with medium-term business performance, and there is no disclosure of ex-CEO advisors.As mentioned in the text below, it is questionable whether the Board of Directors and committees, where the founder family holds the majority of the Company's outstanding shares and the second generation founder is the president, can make decisions that are not in line with the president's wishes. The company manufactures cosmetics, which are widely used by women, and aims to expand its sales both domestically and internationally. As such, the company has to be sensitive to consumer trends, and it is necessary to foster a corporate culture that is supported by consumers. This is the reason why corporate governance practices in the company have progressed in the areas mentioned above in the criteria On the other hand, the criteria that cannot be evaluated have much to do with the fact that the founding family company controls the management. This is because personnel matters are non-negotiable in order for the founding family to maintain control in the future. Whether or not governance practices improve in these matters is related to whether or not the founding family will maintain control in the future. In this sense, if the founding family does not make concessions, I do not see any further progress in governance in the immediate future. Even if some progress is made in these matters, we should be careful to see if it is an inherent improvement. Even if progress is made in any of these matters, will the president, who is the chairman of the Personnel and Compensation Committee and controls personnel and compensation, really make a decision that is not in line with the president's wishes when he chairs a board meeting with many internal directors? Even if such a decision is made, can it really be made in a situation where the founding family, which holds the majority of voting rights at the shareholders' meeting, can overturn the decision? Concerns always remain as to whether essential improvements in governance practices will be made in such an environment. Whether we can dispel such concerns and ensure the objectivity and transparency of our Board of Directors and practices is a serious challenge for the Company.*Pora Orbis Holdings has a METRICAL CG Score of 62.78 (versus an average of 53.77 for the 1,722 companies in the universe as of July 2020). The company's score is above average in the universe.

Corporate Governance Research: POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS (4927)SUMMARY:POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS' corporate governance is slightly above average*. Although it may be a bit out of corporate governance, its financial performance in ROA and ROA remains lacking due to inefficiencies such as asset efficiency. On the other hand, we can say that Tobin's Q is over 3x and the share price is highly valued for its high profit margin on sales, such as maintaining 7.8% OP margin even in FY12/2020, which was affected by COVID-19 pandemic.The corporate governance of the Company cannot be described without mentioning that it is, after all, a founding family company. In terms of corporate governance practices, the following are commendable: no anti-takeover provisions, no policy holdings, strong board evaluation and board training policies, clear dividend policy, capital allocation and growth policy, and strong shareholder returns. On the other hand, what I do not appreciate are the matters related to human resources. The term of office for directors is two years instead of one year, the majority of the Board of Directors is composed of internal directors, the President chairs the Board of Directors meetings, the committees are advisory committees and are chaired by an internal director (probably the President), there is insufficient disclosure of compensation incentives, and the ratio of variable compensation to fixed compensation and the objectivity of the linkage to medium-term business performance are lacking. There is room for improvement in terms of the ratio of variable to fixed remuneration and objectivity regarding the linkage with medium-term business performance, and there is no disclosure of ex-CEO advisors.As mentioned in the text below, it is questionable whether the Board of Directors and committees, where the founder family holds the majority of the Company's outstanding shares and the second generation founder is the president, can make decisions that are not in line with the president's wishes. The company manufactures cosmetics, which are widely used by women, and aims to expand its sales both domestically and internationally. As such, the company has to be sensitive to consumer trends, and it is necessary to foster a corporate culture that is supported by consumers. This is the reason why corporate governance practices in the company have progressed in the areas mentioned above in the criteria On the other hand, the criteria that cannot be evaluated have much to do with the fact that the founding family company controls the management. This is because personnel matters are non-negotiable in order for the founding family to maintain control in the future. Whether or not governance practices improve in these matters is related to whether or not the founding family will maintain control in the future. In this sense, if the founding family does not make concessions, I do not see any further progress in governance in the immediate future. Even if some progress is made in these matters, we should be careful to see if it is an inherent improvement. Even if progress is made in any of these matters, will the president, who is the chairman of the Personnel and Compensation Committee and controls personnel and compensation, really make a decision that is not in line with the president's wishes when he chairs a board meeting with many internal directors? Even if such a decision is made, can it really be made in a situation where the founding family, which holds the majority of voting rights at the shareholders' meeting, can overturn the decision? Concerns always remain as to whether essential improvements in governance practices will be made in such an environment. Whether we can dispel such concerns and ensure the objectivity and transparency of our Board of Directors and practices is a serious challenge for the Company.*Pora Orbis Holdings has a METRICAL CG Score of 62.78 (versus an average of 53.77 for the 1,722 companies in the universe as of July 2020). The company's score is above average in the universe.

Japan's Governance: POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS (4927)

Japan

POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS INC. develops, manufactures and markets cosmetic products, centering in skincare  products. Under its multi-brand strategy, the Company holds nine cosmetic brands including POLA, prestige skincare brand, ORBIS, oil-free skincare brand, H2O PLUS and Jurlique.

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Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)

Shiseido: Inbound Demand Could Rebound During The Next Twelve Months

Inbound demand is an extremely important portion of Shiseido’s domestic revenue as it contributed around ¥70.0-80.0bn (around 18% of domestic...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Premier Anti-Aging: Up More than 300%, But Remains Undervalued on Fundamentals

Despite its smaller size, we think Premier Anti-Ageing deserves to trade in line with its peers due to its superior growth prospects.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Premier Anti-Aging Company: Sitrana & Canadel Can Become Strong Second-Tier Brands

We think Premier Anti-Aging’s Duo brand is there or thereabout being as successful as Kose's DECORTE and Pola Orbis' POLA brands. The company’s...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Premier Anti-Aging Company Ageing Gracefully

The company was listed on the TSE mothers section in October last year at an IPO price of ¥4,140 per share. After a relatively slow start, Premier...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan's Governance: POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS (4927)

The corporate governance of the Company can't be described without mentioning that it is a founding family company. Some criteria are commendable...

Metrical Inc

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