Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Peak IP momentum risk: Labubu (~23% of revenue) shows fading hype, with resale prices and ex-China search interest normalizing, raising risk of faster-than-expected growth deceleration in 2026.</li>
<li>IP concentration and gap: No other IP has demonstrated Labubu-like scaling, increasing risk of an IP digestion period. Overseas expansion matures and supply normalization caps incremental demand.</li>
<li>Valuation/Expectations mismatch: At 14x 2026E P/E, valuation assumes durable IP growth; TP at HKD 100 to 105 with downgrade risk in 2H26.</li>
</ul>


Peak IP momentum risk: Labubu (~23% of revenue) shows fading hype, with resale prices and ex-China search interest normalizing, raising risk of faster-than-expected growth deceleration in 2026.
IP concentration and gap: No other IP has demonstrated Labubu-like scaling, increasing risk of an IP digestion period. Overseas expansion matures and supply normalization caps incremental demand.
Valuation/Expectations mismatch: At 14x 2026E P/E, valuation assumes durable IP growth; TP at HKD 100 to 105 with downgrade risk in 2H26.


2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart’s 25Q3 results beat expectations, mainly driven by high growth of revenue attributed from operations overseas. The "online + offline + overseas" three-wheel drive strategy has achieved remarkable performance.</li>
<li>However, the market has expressed concerns over the IP life cycle and performance sustainability of Pop Mart through the decline in its stock price, which may not have ended yet.</li>
<li>There are no signs that new products can catch up with LABUBU. Once market sentiment reverses, it will affect Pop Mart’s valuation outlook. 30-35x P/E is a more comfortable range.</li>
</ul>


Pop Mart’s 25Q3 results beat expectations, mainly driven by high growth of revenue attributed from operations overseas. The "online + offline + overseas" three-wheel drive strategy has achieved remarkable performance.
However, the market has expressed concerns over the IP life cycle and performance sustainability of Pop Mart through the decline in its stock price, which may not have ended yet.
There are no signs that new products can catch up with LABUBU. Once market sentiment reverses, it will affect Pop Mart’s valuation outlook. 30-35x P/E is a more comfortable range.


Pop Mart (9992 HK) 25Q3 - The Decline in Stock Prices May Not Have Ended Yet

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart options recently began trading on HKEX and have gained considerable traction, ranking in the top 10 of volume traded.</li>
<li>Pop Mart has had a tremendous rally but is in the midst of a double-digit slump.</li>
<li>Option volumes have been skewed, and we outline how best to approach hedging in this environment.</li>
</ul>


Pop Mart options recently began trading on HKEX and have gained considerable traction, ranking in the top 10 of volume traded.
Pop Mart has had a tremendous rally but is in the midst of a double-digit slump.
Option volumes have been skewed, and we outline how best to approach hedging in this environment.


Pop Mart (9992.HK): Options Activity Builds as the Rally Cools

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.</li>
<li>We highlight the growing concerns about the declining resale values of Labubu. After reaching their peak prices in this summer, the resale prices of Labubu dolls have continued to drop.</li>
<li>Its share price declining below the critical HK$250 support on big volumes suggest negative technicals on this stock. </li>
</ul>


Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.
We highlight the growing concerns about the declining resale values of Labubu. After reaching their peak prices in this summer, the resale prices of Labubu dolls have continued to drop.
Its share price declining below the critical HK$250 support on big volumes suggest negative technicals on this stock. 


Pop Mart International: Increasing Concerns About Resale Price Declines

<ul>
<li>The certainty of 2025 performance is actually high. 25H2 performance is expected to be better than that in 25H1. Our forecast is net profit to reach RMB10 billion in 2025. </li>
<li>The concern is Pop Mart may face the sustainability problem of performance under the high base of 2025 starting from 2026. If consumers develop aesthetic fatigue towards LABUBU,  performance would decline.</li>
<li>In a neutral situation, 30-35x P/E is a comfortable range.Valuation upside depends more on the sustainability of THE MONSTERS popularity and whether the popularity of other IPs can exceed expectations.</li>
</ul>


The certainty of 2025 performance is actually high. 25H2 performance is expected to be better than that in 25H1. Our forecast is net profit to reach RMB10 billion in 2025. 
The concern is Pop Mart may face the sustainability problem of performance under the high base of 2025 starting from 2026. If consumers develop aesthetic fatigue towards LABUBU,  performance would decline.
In a neutral situation, 30-35x P/E is a comfortable range.Valuation upside depends more on the sustainability of THE MONSTERS popularity and whether the popularity of other IPs can exceed expectations.


Pop Mart (9992 HK) - 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?

China

Pop Mart International Group Limited operates as a toys wholesales company. The Company provides trendy toys designing, production, marketing, and other services. Pop Mart International Group markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Pop Mart (9992 HK)

2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)

Pop Mart’s valuation assumes enduring super-IP momentum. With Labubu hype fading and no clear second growth engine, earnings risk skews to the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pop Mart (9992 HK) 25Q3 - The Decline in Stock Prices May Not Have Ended Yet

The share price performance of Pop Mart has not been satisfactory. As analyzed in the insight, the concern is Pop Mart will face the sustainability...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pop Mart (9992.HK): Options Activity Builds as the Rally Cools

The launch of Pop Mart options has sparked brisk trading against the backdrop of a stock that is in the midst of a double-digit decline after a...

John Ley

Pop Mart International: Increasing Concerns About Resale Price Declines

Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.

Douglas Kim

Pop Mart (9992 HK) - 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?

Pop Mart's weak shares performance could be related to LABUBU's sales situation.If check overseas market, LABUBU isn't that difficult to order now...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)