IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$31.50-38.50 per share, Pop Mart will have a market cap of HK$43,519.8-53,190.8 million ($5.6-6.9 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$4,568.8 million ($589 million). </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-creditable-performance-in-tough-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45653" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times</a> we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.</p></div></div></div>

POP MART (POP HK) is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$31.50-38.50 per share, Pop Mart will have a market cap of HK$43,519.8-53,190.8 million ($5.6-6.9 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$4,568.8 million ($589 million). In Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.

Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> aims to raise up to US$674m in its Hong Kong IPO</p></div><div><p>Pop Mart (PM) is the largest and fastest growing pop toy company in China, in terms of 2019 revenue and revenue CAGR over 2017-19. PM had a 8.5% market share by retail value, making it the largest player in the pop toy retailing market.</p></div><div><p>In our previous insights, we spoke about the various aspects of the deal: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-the-positives-expanding-portfolio-wider-distribution-explosive-earnings-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Portfolio+Wider Distribution= Explosive Earnings Growth,</a> and</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-the-negatives-is-it-a-brand-owner-or-just-a-retailer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Is It a Brand Owner or Just a Retailer?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-peer-set-and-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41850" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO - Peer Set and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-quick-note-on-the-ground-pop-up-stores-are-effective" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO Quick Note - On the Ground - Pop-Up Stores Are Effective</a></li>
</ul></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-phip-updates-still-riding-on-past-expansion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Still Riding on past Expansion</a></li></ul></div><ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-valuation-updates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates</a></li></ul><div><p>In this note, I’ll run the deal through our ECM framework.</p></div>

POP MART (POP HK) aims to raise up to US$674m in its Hong Kong IPOPop Mart (PM) is the largest and fastest growing pop toy company in China, in terms of 2019 revenue and revenue CAGR over 2017-19. PM had a 8.5% market share by retail value, making it the largest player in the pop toy retailing market.In our previous insights, we spoke about the various aspects of the deal: 

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Portfolio+Wider Distribution= Explosive Earnings Growth, and
Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Is It a Brand Owner or Just a Retailer?
Pop Mart Pre-IPO - Peer Set and Valuation
Pop Mart Pre-IPO Quick Note - On the Ground - Pop-Up Stores Are Effective
Pop Mart Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Still Riding on past ExpansionPop Mart Pre-IPO - Valuation UpdatesIn this note, I’ll run the deal through our ECM framework.

Pop Mart IPO - Making You Pay Well for Growth

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

JD Health International  / Equity Capital Markets


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.




It has been another busy week in the ECM space. There were a few big launches in Hong Kong. Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK) are the two latest property services companies to come to market with deal sizes of US$2bn and US$1.5bn. Both IPOs had substantial support from cornerstone investors. Evergrande Svcs's support came from a long list of China investors whereas CR Mixc pulled in reputable institutional heavy weights such as GIC, Hillhouse, Matthews Funds, CDH and etc.


CR Mixc Lifestyle Services (华润万象生活) IPO - Needs Time to Prove Itself 

Evergrande Services (恒大物业) IPO - Overhang Issues 

Then there was JD Health (6618 HK) US$3.5bn bookbuild launch which also drew interests from a few familiar names, GIC, Tiger Global, BlackRock, Hillhouse and etc. We discussed valuation, updates post Ali Health's results, and index implications in our notes:


JD Health (京东健康) IPO - Ali Health 1H Results Read Through and Index Inclusions 

JD Health (京东健康) IPO - Paying to Ride the Early Innings of Healthcare Transformation 

Other upcoming Hong Kong IPOs that will likely launch in the coming week includes POP MART (POP HK), Harbour Biomed (HMD HK), Sino-Ocean Service (1827597D HK) and Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK) which we have covered them over the past few weeks, including updates from PHIP filing. 


Pop Mart Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Still Riding on past Expansion 
Pop Mart Pre-IPO - PHIP - Valuation Updates

Sino-Ocean Services (远洋服务) Pre-IPO - Nothing Stands Out 

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates 

HBM (和珀医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation 

Last but not least, New Horizon Health (NHH HK), which Ke Yan, CFA, FRM has covered this week, will probably list some time next year and expecting to raise up to US$300m


New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) Pre-IPO: A Hot Medical Device Deal in Making 

In Australia, Nuix (NXL AU) will debut this coming Friday while Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI AT) is expected trade on the Tuesday the week after. We covered them in the two notes:


Nuix Limited IPO -  A Stable and Predictable Niche 

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure - Highly Curious Timing 

In India, sentiment is gearing to be ready for more IPOs, especially after the strong performance of Gland Pharma (7172753Z IN) last Friday. Burger King India (BKI IN) revealed its bookbuild details and anchor book will open on the 2nd of December. Aside form that, Sumeet Singh also covered Brookfield India REIT's fundamental, positives, and negatives in two notes.


Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure 
Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- The Negatives- Asset Details Leave Questions Unanswered
Burger King India Pre-IPO - Has Been Growing Fast and Plans to Grow Even Faster
Burger King India Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison Yields Interesting Nuggets on Profitability and Capex

In the U.S, aside from the incredible rally of recently listed China EVs, there hasn't been much activity. 17 Education and Technology (YQ US) is the latest online tuition provider that is looking to raise up to US$300m. But a major decision will be made next week to decide whether Chinese firms need to comply with audit-oversight rules.


17 Edu &amp; Tech (一起教育) Pre-IPO: Far from Profitability 

Placements this week:


China Hongqiao Placement - Deep Discount for a Big Deal 

ESR Cayman Placement - Back to Sell Again 

Bega Cheese Placement + Entitlement Offer - A Sensible Acquisition 





Accuracy Rate:



Our overall accuracy rate is 73.3% for IPOs and 66.1% for Placements 


(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)






No new IPO filings this week  




Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.







News on Upcoming IPOs  





JD Health IPO helps cure Hong Kong market blues after Ant
Large listings poised to push Hong Kong’s funds raised via IPO to 10-year high
Burger King India IPO to open on December 2
House to Vote on Booting Chinese Stocks From U.S. Over Audit Rules




Analysis on Upcoming IPOs






Name
Insight


Hong Kong


Blue Moon

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales 



Blue Moon

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising 



Blue Moon

Blue Moon: No. 1 But No Exclusive Advantage, Observation on the Ground 



Blue Moon

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Online Reviews and Peer Comparison 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: How Has It Done in 1H? 



ByteDance

ByteDance: The Unlisted Company’s Video Apps Leading the Market and Threatening Internet Giants 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO - Globally the Most Downloaded App for Jan 2020 Driven by India 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Global Ambition Meets Regulatory Challenges 



Dida

Dida Pre-IPO - Making Hay While Big Brother Retreats 



E-Star Comm

E-Star Commercial Management Pre-IPO - Better Disclosure in New Prospectus 



E-Star Comm

E-Star Commercial Management Pre-IPO - Still Largely Reliant on Galaxy, Poor Disclosure Doesn’t Help 



Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO - Rapid Earnings Growth on the Back of Margin Improvement 



Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO - A Lot of Things Still Remain Unexplained 



Kuaishou

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, Fast Growth 



Kuaishou

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain 



Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - Remarkable Growth (Part 1) 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - A Bet on the Future - Segments, Revenue Drivers and Growth Potential 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - The Real Race Is in Research - Founders' Profile and Talent 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - Competitive Landscape and Peer Analysis 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO -  Initial Thoughts on Valuation 


Ocumension

Ocumension (欧康维视) Pre-IPO: All Ready for a Great Listing Except a Block Buster 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Is It a Brand Owner or Just a Retailer? 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Portfolio+Wider Distribution= Explosive Earnings Growth 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - Peer Set and Valuation 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO Quick Note - On the Ground - Pop-Up Stores Are Effective 


RemeGen

RemeGen (荣昌生物) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation of RC18 and RC48 


Toplist

Toplist China Pre-IPO - Overwhelmingly More Negatives than Positives 


Tasly

Tasly Biopharm (天士力生物) IPO: Visible Growth from Approved Drug but Lacks Blockbusters 


WeDoctor

WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO -App Walk Through - The Online Medical Directory and More 


WeDoctor

WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO - A More Focused Online Medical Svc Provider than Ping An Good Doctor 


India


ASK

ASK Investment Managers Pre-IPO - Riding on a Wave of Wealth 


Anmol Ind
Anmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take - No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders


Bharat Hotel

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO - Catching up with Peers 



Burger King

Burger King India Pre-IPO - Has Been Growing Fast and Plans to Grow Even Faster 



Burger King

Burger King India Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison Yields Interesting Nuggets on Profitability and Capex 



Brookfields REIT

Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure 



Brookfields REIT

Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- The Negatives- Asset Details Leave Questions Unanswered 



Bajaj En

Bajaj Energy Pre-IPO - Supposed to Deliver Steady Performance if Only Its Sole Client Would Let It 



CMS Info
CMS Info Systems Pre-IPO - When a PE Sells to Another PE... Only One Gets the Timing Right


Crystal Crop
Crystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO - DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers


ESAF SFB

ESAF Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Growing Fast but Remains Highly Dependant on a Related Party 


Flemingo 
Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO - Its a Different Business in Every Country


Emami Cem

Emami Cement Pre-IPO - Still in Ramp Up Phase but Shares Pledge Might Lead to an Early IPO 


IRFC

Indian Railway Finance Pre-IPO - Low Risk, Low Margin Business 


NSE
NSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive


NSE
National Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review - Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some


Mrs. Bector
Mrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take - Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta



LIC


Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO - Early Take on India's Largest IPO 



Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO - Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable


Lodha
Lodha Developers IPO: Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt


Penna Cem

Penna Cement - Aggressive Expansion Plans Even Though Past Performance Has Been Tepid 


PNB Met
PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take - Doesn't Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers


Samhi Hotels

Samhi Hotels Pre-IPO - Assets and Borrowings Are Growing, but Earnings Haven’t Kept Pace 


Malaysia


QSR
QSR Brands Pre-IPO - As Healthy as Fast Food


Thailand


PTTOR

PTT Oil and Retail IPO - F&amp;B Business Is the Profit Driver 


The U.S


CDP

CDP Holdings Pre-IPO Review - Highly Reliant on Best Inc. 


CloudMinds
CloudMinds Inc Early Thoughts - Still Nascent





ECM Weekly (29 November 2020) - JD Health, Evergrande Svcs, CR Svcs, Pop Mart, Nuix and More

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a>  plans to raise around US$200-300m in its Hong Kong IPO.</p></div><div><p>Pop Mart (PM) is the largest and fastest growing pop toy company in China, in terms of 2019 revenue and revenue CAGR over 2017-19. PM had a 8.5% market share by retail value, making it the largest player in the pop toy retailing market.</p></div><div><p>In our previous insights, we spoke about the positive/negative aspects, peers and valuation, and undertook store and product reviews: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-the-positives-expanding-portfolio-wider-distribution-explosive-earnings-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Portfolio+Wider Distribution= Explosive Earnings Growth,</a> and</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-the-negatives-is-it-a-brand-owner-or-just-a-retailer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Is It a Brand Owner or Just a Retailer?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-peer-set-and-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41850" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO - Peer Set and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-quick-note-on-the-ground-pop-up-stores-are-effective" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO Quick Note - On the Ground - Pop-Up Stores Are Effective</a></li>
</ul></div><div>
<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-pre-ipo-phip-updates-still-riding-on-past-expansion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pop Mart Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Still Riding on past Expansion</a></li></ul>
<p>In this note, I’ll talk about the updates to valuation post the PHIP updates.</p>
</div>

POP MART (POP HK)  plans to raise around US$200-300m in its Hong Kong IPO.Pop Mart (PM) is the largest and fastest growing pop toy company in China, in terms of 2019 revenue and revenue CAGR over 2017-19. PM had a 8.5% market share by retail value, making it the largest player in the pop toy retailing market.In our previous insights, we spoke about the positive/negative aspects, peers and valuation, and undertook store and product reviews: 

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Portfolio+Wider Distribution= Explosive Earnings Growth, and
Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Is It a Brand Owner or Just a Retailer?
Pop Mart Pre-IPO - Peer Set and Valuation
Pop Mart Pre-IPO Quick Note - On the Ground - Pop-Up Stores Are Effective

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Still Riding on past Expansion
In this note, I’ll talk about the updates to valuation post the PHIP updates.


<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. “Pop Mart” has become the most popular pop toy brand in China. Pop Mart is seeking to raise $600 million (double the original $200-300 million target) at a $7 billion valuation, according to Reuters. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-initiation-state-of-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42200" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO Initiation: State of Play</a>, we stated that setting aside the short-term negative impact due to COVID-19, Pop Mart presents a unique opportunity to gain exposure to China’s pop toy retailing market. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-creditable-performance-in-tough-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45653" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times</a> we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In this note, we take a first look at Pop Mart's valuation. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.</p></div>
</div>


POP MART (POP HK) is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. “Pop Mart” has become the most popular pop toy brand in China. Pop Mart is seeking to raise $600 million (double the original $200-300 million target) at a $7 billion valuation, according to Reuters. 
In Pop Mart International IPO Initiation: State of Play, we stated that setting aside the short-term negative impact due to COVID-19, Pop Mart presents a unique opportunity to gain exposure to China’s pop toy retailing market. In Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In this note, we take a first look at Pop Mart's valuation. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.


Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation First Look

China

Pop Mart International Group Limited operates as a toys wholesales company. The Company provides trendy toys designing, production, marketing, and other services. Pop Mart International Group markets its products worldwide.

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Pop Mart (9992 HK)

Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights

At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$4,568.8 million ($589 million). Overall, we would participate in the IPO due...

Arun George

Pop Mart IPO - Making You Pay Well for Growth

POP MART (POP HK) aims to raise up to US$674m in its Hong Kong IPO Pop Mart is the largest and fastest growing pop toy company in China, in terms...

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (29 November 2020) - JD Health, Evergrande Svcs, CR Svcs, Pop Mart, Nuix and More

A few big IPOs launched in Hong Kong this week, namely, JD Health, Evergrande Services, and CR Mixc Services. Interestingly, the trio drew strong...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates

POP MART plans to raise around US$200-300m in its Hong Kong IPO. Pop Mart is the largest and fastest growing pop toy company in China, in terms of...

Sumeet Singh

Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation First Look

Pop Mart is seeking to raise $600 million (double the original $200-300 million target) at a $7 billion valuation, according to Reuters. We think...

Arun George

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