Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.</li>
<li>The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.</li>
<li>Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.</li>
</ul>


From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.
The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.
Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.


Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

TOP TOY International Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create "blockbuster proprietary IPs" and reduce reliance on licensing model.</li>
<li>Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.</li>
<li>If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create "blockbuster proprietary IPs" and reduce reliance on licensing model.
Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.
If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.


Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> had an upbeat H1FY25 call, guiding that the peak season in H2FY25 has been so busy the company is capacity-constrained, resulting in orders shifting into FY26.</li>
<li>The company will expand its capacity, putting up a plant each in China (local demand), Vietnam, and Indonesia, taking its overall maximum capacity revenue from 860 to 950 million USD.</li>
<li>Based on this improved outlook, we believe the stock trades at 10.7x FY25 PE, with a dividend yield of 5.1%, 16% of the market cap in cash. </li>
</ul>



Dream International (1126 HK) had an upbeat H1FY25 call, guiding that the peak season in H2FY25 has been so busy the company is capacity-constrained, resulting in orders shifting into FY26.
The company will expand its capacity, putting up a plant each in China (local demand), Vietnam, and Indonesia, taking its overall maximum capacity revenue from 860 to 950 million USD.
Based on this improved outlook, we believe the stock trades at 10.7x FY25 PE, with a dividend yield of 5.1%, 16% of the market cap in cash. 


Dream International (1126 HK) Post Results Call: Moving Into A Great Peak Season

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dream-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15783:1" rel="noopener">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> reported a solid result with revenues/profits up 12%/10% YoY, led by a healthy growth in both the plush and plastic toy segments</li>
<li>The company sees an opportunity in growing its presence in China locally to counter the tariff threats. We will get more color on this in the Sept 1st conference call.</li>
<li>Trading at 13.5x FY25 PE, with net cash 15% of the market cap, a 4% dividend yield, and a four-year ROCE averaging &gt;20%, we would explore the name on dips. </li>
</ul>



Dream International (1126 HK) reported a solid result with revenues/profits up 12%/10% YoY, led by a healthy growth in both the plush and plastic toy segments
The company sees an opportunity in growing its presence in China locally to counter the tariff threats. We will get more color on this in the Sept 1st conference call.
Trading at 13.5x FY25 PE, with net cash 15% of the market cap, a 4% dividend yield, and a four-year ROCE averaging &gt;20%, we would explore the name on dips. 


Dream International (1126 HK) H1 FY25: Steady + Dividend Increase

<ul>
<li>We believe that toymakers are experiencing a bubble like rally led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hasbro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18204:1" rel="noopener">Hasbro Inc (HAS US)</a> which raised forecasts recently. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dream-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15783:1" rel="noopener">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> has returned &gt;200% since liberation day tariffs were declared on April 2nd 2025 and now trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (vs 3.7x when we initiated). </li>
<li>
<strong> "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" !</strong> .We would take some money off the table here as toy stocks go through periods of cyclicality due restocking/destocking.</li>
</ul>


We believe that toymakers are experiencing a bubble like rally led by Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) and Hasbro Inc (HAS US) which raised forecasts recently. 

Dream International (1126 HK) has returned &gt;200% since liberation day tariffs were declared on April 2nd 2025 and now trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (vs 3.7x when we initiated). 

 "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" ! .We would take some money off the table here as toy stocks go through periods of cyclicality due restocking/destocking.


Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble

China

Pop Mart International Group Limited operates as a toys wholesales company. The Company provides trendy toys designing, production, marketing, and other services. Pop Mart International Group markets its products worldwide.

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Pop Mart (9992 HK)

Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.

Southbound buying dipped in October-November. Focus remains on stocks catering to domestic consumption & AI adoption. Semiconductor & biotech zeal...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

TOP TOY's success hinges on creating blockbuster proprietary IPs to reduce reliance on licensing model. Due to low profit margin, valuation will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Dream International (1126 HK) Post Results Call: Moving Into A Great Peak Season

We summarize our gleanings from the Dream International (1126 HK) conference call. The call was extremely upbeat, and the company is likely to...

Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK) H1 FY25: Steady + Dividend Increase

We summarize the H1 FY25 results for Dream International (1126 HK) released yesterday. The stock trades at 13.5x FY25 PE with a 4% dividend yield...

Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble

We try to make sense of the recent rally in Dream International (1126 HK). The stock has been on a tear and is up over 200% since liberation day...

Sameer Taneja

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Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.

​Southbound buying dipped in October-November. Focus remains on stocks catering to domestic consumption & AI adoption. Semiconductor & biotech zeal...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

​TOP TOY's success hinges on creating blockbuster proprietary IPs to reduce reliance on licensing model. Due to low profit margin, valuation will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Dream International (1126 HK) Post Results Call: Moving Into A Great Peak Season

We summarize our gleanings from the Dream International (1126 HK) conference call. The call was extremely upbeat, and the company is likely to...

Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK) H1 FY25: Steady + Dividend Increase

We summarize the H1 FY25 results for Dream International (1126 HK) released yesterday. The stock trades at 13.5x FY25 PE with a 4% dividend yield...

Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble

We try to make sense of the recent rally in Dream International (1126 HK). The stock has been on a tear and is up over 200% since liberation day...

Sameer Taneja

Southbound buying dipped in October-November. Focus remains on stocks catering to domestic consumption & AI adoption. Semiconductor & biotech zeal...

TOP TOY's success hinges on creating blockbuster proprietary IPs to reduce reliance on licensing model. Due to low profit margin, valuation will...