Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas (at least in the short-term). </li>
<li>A recent case of a Chinese brand achieving success overseas is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">Miniso (MNSO US)</a>, and shareholders of Miniso have been richly rewarded. </li>
<li>Pop Mart trades at a PE of 24x based on estimated 2024 earnings, with around 30% expected net profit growth in 2024E.   </li>
</ul>



Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas (at least in the short-term). 
A recent case of a Chinese brand achieving success overseas is Miniso (MNSO US), and shareholders of Miniso have been richly rewarded. 
Pop Mart trades at a PE of 24x based on estimated 2024 earnings, with around 30% expected net profit growth in 2024E.   


Pop Mart (9992 HK):  Short-Term Trading Opportunity On International Expansion

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $366m Outflows in June

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 19th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Man Wah (1999 HK), Yihai International (1579 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Esr (1821 HK), China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 19th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Man Wah (1999 HK), Yihai International (1579 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Esr (1821 HK), China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 19th): Aia, Man Wah, Yihai International

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Markets expect Popmart to deliver fast growth for years to come, yet we are skeptical because the pop toy business, by definition, is a niche market.</li>
<li>Blaming COVID for Popmart’s weak results risks focusing too much on near-term cyclical recovery but overlooking structural bottlenecks to growth.</li>
<li>While we are cautious for long term, continued improvement in business and news flow leading to 1H results will likely result in share price rebound and provide tactical trading opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Markets expect Popmart to deliver fast growth for years to come, yet we are skeptical because the pop toy business, by definition, is a niche market.
Blaming COVID for Popmart’s weak results risks focusing too much on near-term cyclical recovery but overlooking structural bottlenecks to growth.
While we are cautious for long term, continued improvement in business and news flow leading to 1H results will likely result in share price rebound and provide tactical trading opportunity.


Popmart (9992 HK): Long Term Constraints Cloud Near Term Recovery

China

Pop Mart International Group Limited operates as a toys wholesales company. The Company provides trendy toys designing, production, marketing, and other services. Pop Mart International Group markets its products worldwide.

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Pop Mart (9992 HK)

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Short-Term Trading Opportunity On International Expansion

Pop Mart (9992 HK) presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas.

Steve

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $366m Outflows in June

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for June and highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th and highlight short interest changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 19th): Aia, Man Wah, Yihai International

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Aia (1299 HK), Man...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Popmart (9992 HK): Long Term Constraints Cloud Near Term Recovery

Pop toy is a niche market which limits Popmart's growth potential, yet we see a short-term share price rebound leading to 1H23 results.

Eric Chen

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