Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> stock was up 7% yesterday and 30% since January 16th, after the launch of "PUCKY" Tap tap series of plush pendant blind boxes on January 15th. </li>
<li>This new blind-box series is reported to have created a social media buzz with official stocks being sold out quickly leading to a boost in secondary market demand and prices.</li>
<li>It is too early to conclude if this blind box series can recreate the Labubu magic but by adding an interactive music function, Pop Mart has caught buyer attention again. </li>
</ul>



Pop Mart (9992 HK) stock was up 7% yesterday and 30% since January 16th, after the launch of "PUCKY" Tap tap series of plush pendant blind boxes on January 15th. 
This new blind-box series is reported to have created a social media buzz with official stocks being sold out quickly leading to a boost in secondary market demand and prices.
It is too early to conclude if this blind box series can recreate the Labubu magic but by adding an interactive music function, Pop Mart has caught buyer attention again. 


Pop Mart (9992 HK): PUCKY - How a Lucky Plush Drove Shares up 30%.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>Following our initial Sell Pop Mart note, we conducted selective offline channel checks across overseas markets, and provided updated trend indicators.</li>
<li>Our observations are consistent with the view that recent strength in Labubu-driven sales is unlikely to be sustainable.</li>
<li>In parallel, secondary-market pricing for key Pop Mart items has continued to weaken after launch, reinforcing signs of demand normalization.</li>
</ul>


Following our initial Sell Pop Mart note, we conducted selective offline channel checks across overseas markets, and provided updated trend indicators.
Our observations are consistent with the view that recent strength in Labubu-driven sales is unlikely to be sustainable.
In parallel, secondary-market pricing for key Pop Mart items has continued to weaken after launch, reinforcing signs of demand normalization.


Sell Pop Mart (9992 HK) Updates (2026 Jan): Offline Channel Checks and Trend Data

<ul>
<li>Peak IP momentum risk: Labubu (~23% of revenue) shows fading hype, with resale prices and ex-China search interest normalizing, raising risk of faster-than-expected growth deceleration in 2026.</li>
<li>IP concentration and gap: No other IP has demonstrated Labubu-like scaling, increasing risk of an IP digestion period. Overseas expansion matures and supply normalization caps incremental demand.</li>
<li>Valuation/Expectations mismatch: At 14x 2026E P/E, valuation assumes durable IP growth; TP at HKD 100 to 105 with downgrade risk in 2H26.</li>
</ul>


Peak IP momentum risk: Labubu (~23% of revenue) shows fading hype, with resale prices and ex-China search interest normalizing, raising risk of faster-than-expected growth deceleration in 2026.
IP concentration and gap: No other IP has demonstrated Labubu-like scaling, increasing risk of an IP digestion period. Overseas expansion matures and supply normalization caps incremental demand.
Valuation/Expectations mismatch: At 14x 2026E P/E, valuation assumes durable IP growth; TP at HKD 100 to 105 with downgrade risk in 2H26.


2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart’s 25Q3 results beat expectations, mainly driven by high growth of revenue attributed from operations overseas. The "online + offline + overseas" three-wheel drive strategy has achieved remarkable performance.</li>
<li>However, the market has expressed concerns over the IP life cycle and performance sustainability of Pop Mart through the decline in its stock price, which may not have ended yet.</li>
<li>There are no signs that new products can catch up with LABUBU. Once market sentiment reverses, it will affect Pop Mart’s valuation outlook. 30-35x P/E is a more comfortable range.</li>
</ul>


Pop Mart’s 25Q3 results beat expectations, mainly driven by high growth of revenue attributed from operations overseas. The "online + offline + overseas" three-wheel drive strategy has achieved remarkable performance.
However, the market has expressed concerns over the IP life cycle and performance sustainability of Pop Mart through the decline in its stock price, which may not have ended yet.
There are no signs that new products can catch up with LABUBU. Once market sentiment reverses, it will affect Pop Mart’s valuation outlook. 30-35x P/E is a more comfortable range.


Pop Mart (9992 HK) 25Q3 - The Decline in Stock Prices May Not Have Ended Yet

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart options recently began trading on HKEX and have gained considerable traction, ranking in the top 10 of volume traded.</li>
<li>Pop Mart has had a tremendous rally but is in the midst of a double-digit slump.</li>
<li>Option volumes have been skewed, and we outline how best to approach hedging in this environment.</li>
</ul>


Pop Mart options recently began trading on HKEX and have gained considerable traction, ranking in the top 10 of volume traded.
Pop Mart has had a tremendous rally but is in the midst of a double-digit slump.
Option volumes have been skewed, and we outline how best to approach hedging in this environment.


Pop Mart (9992.HK): Options Activity Builds as the Rally Cools

China

Pop Mart is a Chinese toy company that designs, develops, and sells collectible toys and figurines, primarily in a "blind box" format. The company focuses on intellectual property (IP) creation and operation, producing toys based on both in-house IPs like Labubu and licensed themes such as Disney and Harry Potter. Pop Mart was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Pop Mart (9992 HK)

Pop Mart (9992 HK): PUCKY - How a Lucky Plush Drove Shares up 30%.

If Pucky Tap Tap series achieve blockbuster status, a strong run-up in the stock price could follow. Current valuations suggest investors have...

Devi Subhakesan

Sell Pop Mart (9992 HK) Updates (2026 Jan): Offline Channel Checks and Trend Data

Short Pop Mart: We conducted shop visit in the overseas market, specifically Singapore and Malaysia. What we have observed is consistent with our...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)

Pop Mart’s valuation assumes enduring super-IP momentum. With Labubu hype fading and no clear second growth engine, earnings risk skews to the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pop Mart (9992 HK) 25Q3 - The Decline in Stock Prices May Not Have Ended Yet

The share price performance of Pop Mart has not been satisfactory. As analyzed in the insight, the concern is Pop Mart will face the sustainability...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pop Mart (9992.HK): Options Activity Builds as the Rally Cools

The launch of Pop Mart options has sparked brisk trading against the backdrop of a stock that is in the midst of a double-digit decline after a...

John Ley

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