Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.</li>
<li>We highlight the growing concerns about the declining resale values of Labubu. After reaching their peak prices in this summer, the resale prices of Labubu dolls have continued to drop.</li>
<li>Its share price declining below the critical HK$250 support on big volumes suggest negative technicals on this stock. </li>
</ul>


Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.
We highlight the growing concerns about the declining resale values of Labubu. After reaching their peak prices in this summer, the resale prices of Labubu dolls have continued to drop.
Its share price declining below the critical HK$250 support on big volumes suggest negative technicals on this stock. 


Pop Mart International: Increasing Concerns About Resale Price Declines

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The certainty of 2025 performance is actually high. 25H2 performance is expected to be better than that in 25H1. Our forecast is net profit to reach RMB10 billion in 2025. </li>
<li>The concern is Pop Mart may face the sustainability problem of performance under the high base of 2025 starting from 2026. If consumers develop aesthetic fatigue towards LABUBU,  performance would decline.</li>
<li>In a neutral situation, 30-35x P/E is a comfortable range.Valuation upside depends more on the sustainability of THE MONSTERS popularity and whether the popularity of other IPs can exceed expectations.</li>
</ul>


The certainty of 2025 performance is actually high. 25H2 performance is expected to be better than that in 25H1. Our forecast is net profit to reach RMB10 billion in 2025. 
The concern is Pop Mart may face the sustainability problem of performance under the high base of 2025 starting from 2026. If consumers develop aesthetic fatigue towards LABUBU,  performance would decline.
In a neutral situation, 30-35x P/E is a comfortable range.Valuation upside depends more on the sustainability of THE MONSTERS popularity and whether the popularity of other IPs can exceed expectations.


Pop Mart (9992 HK) - 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 245% YoY in 3Q25.</li>
<li>Within China revenue, the growth rates of both online and offline accelerated in 3Q25.</li>
<li>The company highlighted that revenues surged significantly in America and Europe.</li>
</ul>


The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 245% YoY in 3Q25.
Within China revenue, the growth rates of both online and offline accelerated in 3Q25.
The company highlighted that revenues surged significantly in America and Europe.


Pop Mart (9992 HK): 3Q25, Revenue Up by 245% - 80% Upside

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China is again finding favour among investors but investment in Chinese equities has to be nuanced and calibrated. Even high growth and policy beneficiary sectors have underperformed lately.</li>
<li>Avoiding the victims of involution, selecting market leaders who can protect their margins and companies with overseas manufacturing bases who can protect their foreign margins seem a viable strategy.</li>
<li>Latest consumption trends indicate strength in communication equipment, gold and silver jewelry, beverages and cosmetics. Precautionary buying of precious metals indicates that high dividend yield stocks could do well too.</li>
</ul>


China is again finding favour among investors but investment in Chinese equities has to be nuanced and calibrated. Even high growth and policy beneficiary sectors have underperformed lately.
Avoiding the victims of involution, selecting market leaders who can protect their margins and companies with overseas manufacturing bases who can protect their foreign margins seem a viable strategy.
Latest consumption trends indicate strength in communication equipment, gold and silver jewelry, beverages and cosmetics. Precautionary buying of precious metals indicates that high dividend yield stocks could do well too.


Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

China

Pop Mart is a Chinese toy company that designs, develops, and sells collectible toys and figurines, primarily in a "blind box" format. The company focuses on intellectual property (IP) creation and operation, producing toys based on both in-house IPs like Labubu and licensed themes such as Disney and Harry Potter. Pop Mart was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Pop Mart (9992 HK)

Pop Mart International: Increasing Concerns About Resale Price Declines

Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.

Douglas Kim

Pop Mart (9992 HK) - 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?

Pop Mart's weak shares performance could be related to LABUBU's sales situation.If check overseas market, LABUBU isn't that difficult to order now...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pop Mart (9992 HK): 3Q25, Revenue Up by 245% - 80% Upside

The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 245% YoY in 3Q25. Within China revenue, the growth rates of both online and offline accelerated in...

Ming Lu

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pop Mart International: Increasing Concerns About Resale Price Declines

Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.

Douglas Kim

Pop Mart (9992 HK) - 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?

Pop Mart's weak shares performance could be related to LABUBU's sales situation.If check overseas market, LABUBU isn't that difficult to order now...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pop Mart (9992 HK): 3Q25, Revenue Up by 245% - 80% Upside

The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 245% YoY in 3Q25. Within China revenue, the growth rates of both online and offline accelerated in...

Ming Lu

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

​Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...