Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a target="_blank">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> had an upbeat H1FY25 call, guiding that the peak season in H2FY25 has been so busy the company is capacity-constrained, resulting in orders shifting into FY26.</li>
<li>The company will expand its capacity, putting up a plant each in China (local demand), Vietnam, and Indonesia, taking its overall maximum capacity revenue from 860 to 950 million USD.</li>
<li>Based on this improved outlook, we believe the stock trades at 10.7x FY25 PE, with a dividend yield of 5.1%, 16% of the market cap in cash. </li>
</ul>



Dream International (1126 HK) had an upbeat H1FY25 call, guiding that the peak season in H2FY25 has been so busy the company is capacity-constrained, resulting in orders shifting into FY26.
The company will expand its capacity, putting up a plant each in China (local demand), Vietnam, and Indonesia, taking its overall maximum capacity revenue from 860 to 950 million USD.
Based on this improved outlook, we believe the stock trades at 10.7x FY25 PE, with a dividend yield of 5.1%, 16% of the market cap in cash. 


Dream International (1126 HK) Post Results Call: Moving Into A Great Peak Season

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dream-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15783:1" rel="noopener">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> reported a solid result with revenues/profits up 12%/10% YoY, led by a healthy growth in both the plush and plastic toy segments</li>
<li>The company sees an opportunity in growing its presence in China locally to counter the tariff threats. We will get more color on this in the Sept 1st conference call.</li>
<li>Trading at 13.5x FY25 PE, with net cash 15% of the market cap, a 4% dividend yield, and a four-year ROCE averaging &gt;20%, we would explore the name on dips. </li>
</ul>



Dream International (1126 HK) reported a solid result with revenues/profits up 12%/10% YoY, led by a healthy growth in both the plush and plastic toy segments
The company sees an opportunity in growing its presence in China locally to counter the tariff threats. We will get more color on this in the Sept 1st conference call.
Trading at 13.5x FY25 PE, with net cash 15% of the market cap, a 4% dividend yield, and a four-year ROCE averaging &gt;20%, we would explore the name on dips. 


Dream International (1126 HK) H1 FY25: Steady + Dividend Increase

<ul>
<li>We believe that toymakers are experiencing a bubble like rally led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hasbro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18204:1" rel="noopener">Hasbro Inc (HAS US)</a> which raised forecasts recently. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dream-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15783:1" rel="noopener">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> has returned &gt;200% since liberation day tariffs were declared on April 2nd 2025 and now trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (vs 3.7x when we initiated). </li>
<li>
 "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" ! .We would take some money off the table here as toy stocks go through periods of cyclicality due restocking/destocking.</li>
</ul>


We believe that toymakers are experiencing a bubble like rally led by Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) and Hasbro Inc (HAS US) which raised forecasts recently. 

Dream International (1126 HK) has returned &gt;200% since liberation day tariffs were declared on April 2nd 2025 and now trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (vs 3.7x when we initiated). 

 "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" ! .We would take some money off the table here as toy stocks go through periods of cyclicality due restocking/destocking.


Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  </li>
<li>TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.</li>
</ul>


We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  
TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.

Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.


MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

China

Pop Mart International Group Limited operates as a toys wholesales company. The Company provides trendy toys designing, production, marketing, and other services. Pop Mart International Group markets its products worldwide.

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Pop Mart (9992 HK)

Dream International (1126 HK) Post Results Call: Moving Into A Great Peak Season

We summarize our gleanings from the Dream International (1126 HK) conference call. The call was extremely upbeat, and the company is likely to...

Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK) H1 FY25: Steady + Dividend Increase

We summarize the H1 FY25 results for Dream International (1126 HK) released yesterday. The stock trades at 13.5x FY25 PE with a 4% dividend yield...

Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble

We try to make sense of the recent rally in Dream International (1126 HK). The stock has been on a tear and is up over 200% since liberation day...

Sameer Taneja

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

SOUTHBOUND bought another HK$14bn+ last week in the four-day week. ENERGY was big again, as was CONSUMER DISC though some of the latter was index...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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Dream International (1126 HK) Post Results Call: Moving Into A Great Peak Season

We summarize our gleanings from the Dream International (1126 HK) conference call. The call was extremely upbeat, and the company is likely to...

Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK) H1 FY25: Steady + Dividend Increase

We summarize the H1 FY25 results for Dream International (1126 HK) released yesterday. The stock trades at 13.5x FY25 PE with a 4% dividend yield...

Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble

We try to make sense of the recent rally in Dream International (1126 HK). The stock has been on a tear and is up over 200% since liberation day...

Sameer Taneja

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

​Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

SOUTHBOUND bought another HK$14bn+ last week in the four-day week. ENERGY was big again, as was CONSUMER DISC though some of the latter was index...

Travis Lundy

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...