European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Germany’s Federal Court has finally closed the €5.4bn VW stake-building litigation, removing an 18-year legal overhang and the residual risk of an adverse appeal.</li>
<li>The ruling does not change our €34.36/share NAV, as we never deducted the claims from SOTP and Celle had already substantially de-risked the case in 2022.</li>
<li>PAH3 trades at a 28.6% discount to NAV. A 25% discount implies 5.1% upside; getting to 20%, or 12.1% upside, probably needs deleveraging or better VW/Porsche AG performance.</li>
</ul>


Germany’s Federal Court has finally closed the €5.4bn VW stake-building litigation, removing an 18-year legal overhang and the residual risk of an adverse appeal.
The ruling does not change our €34.36/share NAV, as we never deducted the claims from SOTP and Celle had already substantially de-risked the case in 2022.
PAH3 trades at a 28.6% discount to NAV. A 25% discount implies 5.1% upside; getting to 20%, or 12.1% upside, probably needs deleveraging or better VW/Porsche AG performance.


Porsche SE: What Was the €5.4bn Claim Worth?

<ul>
<li>Porsche SE is trading at a 35.3% discount to NAV, vs. 32.4% long-term average, implying a 68% probability that Porsche SE will be liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims.</li>
<li>I think this is too harsh. Shares are trading at a Fwd P/E of 2.5x and a dividend yield of 7.8%, which I consider very attractive. </li>
<li>Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG. Porsche SE is focusing on deleveraging which should drive a reduction in the discount.</li>
</ul>


Porsche SE is trading at a 35.3% discount to NAV, vs. 32.4% long-term average, implying a 68% probability that Porsche SE will be liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims.
I think this is too harsh. Shares are trading at a Fwd P/E of 2.5x and a dividend yield of 7.8%, which I consider very attractive. 
Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG. Porsche SE is focusing on deleveraging which should drive a reduction in the discount.


Porsche Automobile Holding: H1, Model Update, Discount to NAV

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Himax Technologies Inc Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call recently with Himax management, the global leader in automotive touch display controllers; the company is experiencing a uniquely stronger automotive supply/demand environment than some peers.</li>
<li>Discussed in detail how larger or more sophisticated interior displays can drive higher dollar content of display controllers per vehicle. We examine trending new car designs with much larger displays.</li>
<li>We forecast an exponential jump-up in display controller content value per vehicle as beautiful display designs are becoming key USP for auto brands; Maintain our Structural Long rating for Himax.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call recently with Himax management, the global leader in automotive touch display controllers; the company is experiencing a uniquely stronger automotive supply/demand environment than some peers.
Discussed in detail how larger or more sophisticated interior displays can drive higher dollar content of display controllers per vehicle. We examine trending new car designs with much larger displays.
We forecast an exponential jump-up in display controller content value per vehicle as beautiful display designs are becoming key USP for auto brands; Maintain our Structural Long rating for Himax.


TechChain Insights: Call with Himax, How New In-Car Displays Can Quadruple Chip Content Per Vehicle

<ul>
<li>Discount Opportunity: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/porsche-automobil-holding-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21691:1" rel="noopener">Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)</a> SE trades at a ~32% NAV discount—above peers—despite improving balance-sheet structure, stable dividends from VW and Porsche AG, and diminishing legal risks.</li>
<li>Deleveraging Catalyst: Ongoing debt reduction, stronger dividend visibility, and extended maturities enhance transparency and reduce equity risk, offering clear scope for discount compression toward the mid-20s.</li>
<li>Asymmetric Upside: With 99% of assets in VW and Porsche AG, Porsche SE remains a high-convexity play on discount normalization and legal clarity, offering leveraged exposure to core holdings.</li>
</ul>


Discount Opportunity: Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR) SE trades at a ~32% NAV discount—above peers—despite improving balance-sheet structure, stable dividends from VW and Porsche AG, and diminishing legal risks.
Deleveraging Catalyst: Ongoing debt reduction, stronger dividend visibility, and extended maturities enhance transparency and reduce equity risk, offering clear scope for discount compression toward the mid-20s.
Asymmetric Upside: With 99% of assets in VW and Porsche AG, Porsche SE remains a high-convexity play on discount normalization and legal clarity, offering leveraged exposure to core holdings.


Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3-25 Update — Discount Still Wide, Deleveraging on Track

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.</li>
<li>Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.</li>
<li>Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.
Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.
Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

Germany

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers development, production, and sale of automobiles along with financial services. Porsche operates worldwide.

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Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)

Porsche SE: What Was the €5.4bn Claim Worth?

The €5.4bn VW litigation is finally over, but PAH3 already trades near its pre-Porsche AG historical discount. We assess what the ruling is worth...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: H1, Model Update, Discount to NAV

Porsche SE is trading at a 35.3% discount to NAV, vs. 32.4% long-term average, implying a 68% probability that Porsche SE will be liable for c....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TechChain Insights: Call with Himax, How New In-Car Displays Can Quadruple Chip Content Per Vehicle

We discussed in depth the company's latest insights in how larger interior displays in autos are driving higher dollar content of display...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3-25 Update — Discount Still Wide, Deleveraging on Track

Porsche SE offers a pure play on VW and Porsche AG via a 32% NAV discount—debt reduction, legal clarity, and dividend stability could drive re...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

Wide discounts, persistent premiums and shifting catalysts. We revisit Europe's main holding-company valuation gaps and where the next convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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