Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei rose 4.5% over the week as the yen weakened slightly to 145 yen versus the dollar</li>
<li>The buoyant mood may not last after U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Friday after a strong jobs report</li>
<li>The US commerce department announced restrictions to bar US companies from exporting critical SPE tools to China</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei rose 4.5% over the week as the yen weakened slightly to 145 yen versus the dollar
The buoyant mood may not last after U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Friday after a strong jobs report
The US commerce department announced restrictions to bar US companies from exporting critical SPE tools to China


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atrenew-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">ATRenew (RERE US)</a> operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China. It is listed in June 2021 at US$14 per ADS. </li>
<li>The shares are down 63% YTD largely due to the tech market sell-off. Unlike most tech companies, ATRenew is starting to deliver growth with profits, cash generation and share buybacks.</li>
<li>The valuation is undemanding compared to a peer group of pre-owned marketplaces and global online retail marketplaces. It will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate.</li>
</ul>



ATRenew (RERE US) operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China. It is listed in June 2021 at US$14 per ADS. 
The shares are down 63% YTD largely due to the tech market sell-off. Unlike most tech companies, ATRenew is starting to deliver growth with profits, cash generation and share buybacks.
The valuation is undemanding compared to a peer group of pre-owned marketplaces and global online retail marketplaces. It will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate.


ATRenew (RERE US): Pre-Owned Satisfaction

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of <em>AHS Recycle</em> (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), <em>PJT Marketplace</em> (B2B channel) and <em>Paipai Marketplace</em> (B2C channel). </p></div><div>
<p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.00-15.00 per ADS, AiHuiShou will have a market cap of $3.1 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $205.7 million. The raise is materially below the rumoured target raise of $500 million to $1 billion, according to press reports.</p>
<p>Existing shareholders have indicated a total of $100 million of the IPO (44.0% of the ADSs at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The indications of interest from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> and Tiger Global.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-ipo-initiation-turning-the-vicious-cycle-into-a-virtuous-one" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52617" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One</a>, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look.</p>
</div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>On a relative valuation basis and at the IPO price range, AiHuiShou is attractively valued on both an EV/Sales and growth adjusted EV/Sales multiples (an EV/Sales/Growth basis). Notably, the last funding round in May 2021 valued AiHuiShou at $19.43 per ordinary share, implying $12.96 per ADS which is broadly in line with the low-end of the IPO price range.</p>
<p>While the lower than expected raise suggest that AiHuiShou received lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanzhun-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33368:1" rel="noopener">Kanzhun (BZ US)</a> suggests that the market may be warming up again to high-growth Chinese ADRs. Overall, we are inclined to participate. </p>
</div></div>

Aihuishou (RERE US) operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of AHS Recycle (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), PJT Marketplace (B2B channel) and Paipai Marketplace (B2C channel). 
At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.00-15.00 per ADS, AiHuiShou will have a market cap of $3.1 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $205.7 million. The raise is materially below the rumoured target raise of $500 million to $1 billion, according to press reports.
Existing shareholders have indicated a total of $100 million of the IPO (44.0% of the ADSs at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The indications of interest from JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) and Tiger Global.
In AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look.

On a relative valuation basis and at the IPO price range, AiHuiShou is attractively valued on both an EV/Sales and growth adjusted EV/Sales multiples (an EV/Sales/Growth basis). Notably, the last funding round in May 2021 valued AiHuiShou at $19.43 per ordinary share, implying $12.96 per ADS which is broadly in line with the low-end of the IPO price range.
While the lower than expected raise suggest that AiHuiShou received lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of Kanzhun (BZ US) suggests that the market may be warming up again to high-growth Chinese ADRs. Overall, we are inclined to participate. 


<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of AHS Recycle (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), PJT Marketplace (B2B channel) and Paipai Marketplace (B2C channel).  AiHuiShou is seeking to raise $500 million to $1 billion through an NYSE listing, according to press reports.   </p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-ipo-initiation-turning-the-vicious-cycle-into-a-virtuous-one" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52617" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One</a>, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at AiHuiShou's potential valuation range. </p></div></div>

Aihuishou (RERE US) operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of AHS Recycle (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), PJT Marketplace (B2B channel) and Paipai Marketplace (B2C channel).  AiHuiShou is seeking to raise $500 million to $1 billion through an NYSE listing, according to press reports.   In AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at AiHuiShou's potential valuation range. 

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>After a bit of a hibernation period, down 24% between 15 Oct and Christmas, Mercari has started to move again, up 25% in the 12 trading days since. We remain highly positive on our top conviction call from last year and believe strong recent momentum should continue as the Japanese business continues to grow and the US business starts to be valued increasingly highly, especially now that there are clearer benchmarks such as Poshmark.</p>

After a bit of a hibernation period, down 24% between 15 Oct and Christmas, Mercari has started to move again, up 25% in the 12 trading days since. We remain highly positive on our top conviction call from last year and believe strong recent momentum should continue as the Japanese business continues to grow and the US business starts to be valued increasingly highly, especially now that there are clearer benchmarks such as Poshmark.

Mercari – If Mercari Traded Up to Poshmark’s 30x EV/Sales You Would Make 184%

United States

Poshmark, Inc. designs and develops mobile applications. The Company offers a service to buy and sell women's fashion and accessories from mobile phone applications. Poshmark serves customers throughout the United States.

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Poshmark Inc (POSH US)

Japan Weekly | Mercari, Softbank

Japanese stocks were in buoyant mood last week. Risk-on. That will probably not last after the US jobs report sparked turmoil on Friday. Sports Day...

Mark Chadwick

ATRenew (RERE US): Pre-Owned Satisfaction

Unlike most tech companies, ATRenew is starting to deliver growth with profits, cash generation and share buybacks. The valuation remains undemanding.

Arun George

AiHuiShou IPO: Valuation Insights

While the lower than expected raise suggest lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of Kanzhun points to improving market...

Arun George

AiHuiShou IPO: Valuation First-Look

AiHuiShou is seeking to raise $0.5-1.0 billion through an NYSE listing. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at...

Arun George

Mercari – If Mercari Traded Up to Poshmark’s 30x EV/Sales You Would Make 184%

Mercari doubled in 2020 as its Japanese business grew quickly and the US operations started to show genuine promise. We believe this is just the...

Mio Kato

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