Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>PostNL’s new strategy appears well-calibrated, with E-commerce shifting from volume to value and Platforms expansion building on proven growth, positioning the company to improve margins and earnings over the medium term despite competitive and geopolitical headwinds.</li><li>Operational levers, including cost savings, efficiency initiatives, and parcel transfer benefits, underpin our forecast of FY28 normalized EBIT of ~EUR 134m, supporting gradual free cash flow recovery and a resumption of dividend growth.</li><li>At an implied 2028e EV/EBITDA of ~3.0x, the stock trades at a substantial discount to peers, reflecting cautious investor sentiment, but execution of the strategy and strategic optionality through shareholder Daniel Křetínský could drive meaningful upside over the longer term.</li></ul>

PostNL’s new strategy appears well-calibrated, with E-commerce shifting from volume to value and Platforms expansion building on proven growth, positioning the company to improve margins and earnings over the medium term despite competitive and geopolitical headwinds.Operational levers, including cost savings, efficiency initiatives, and parcel transfer benefits, underpin our forecast of FY28 normalized EBIT of ~EUR 134m, supporting gradual free cash flow recovery and a resumption of dividend growth.At an implied 2028e EV/EBITDA of ~3.0x, the stock trades at a substantial discount to peers, reflecting cautious investor sentiment, but execution of the strategy and strategic optionality through shareholder Daniel Křetínský could drive meaningful upside over the longer term.

In-depth report: PostNL | Reaching For The Moon ….?

Research Alert: PostNL | Reaching For The Moon ….?

Duplicate of In-depth report: PostNL | Reaching For The Moon ….?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In yesterday’s edition, we cited French customs data showing a 30-40% drop in small parcel volumes coming from China as a result of the abolition of the de minimis rule.</li>
<li>Dutch customs data for July and August show an even bigger drop in non-EU small parcel volumes of 46% versus the prior sixmonth average.</li>
<li>Dutch Customs reports that e-commerce platforms and sellers are increasingly consolidating shipments into containerised bulk imports, storing inventory within the EU, and then dispatching domestic or intra-EU parcels to end consumers. </li>
</ul>


In yesterday’s edition, we cited French customs data showing a 30-40% drop in small parcel volumes coming from China as a result of the abolition of the de minimis rule.
Dutch customs data for July and August show an even bigger drop in non-EU small parcel volumes of 46% versus the prior sixmonth average.
Dutch Customs reports that e-commerce platforms and sellers are increasingly consolidating shipments into containerised bulk imports, storing inventory within the EU, and then dispatching domestic or intra-EU parcels to end consumers. 


What's News in Amsterdam - 2 September (E-commerce & Logistics)

<ul><li>In this edition: • KPN | flood of complaints at several authorities about Odido • Universal Music Group | completes acquisition of Downtown Music Holding by Virgin Music Group • PostNL | overall picture 4Q25 fairly in line with our expectations • Dutch politics | high coalition spending will increase government debt • Corporate agenda | week 9 – 12</li></ul>

In this edition: • KPN | flood of complaints at several authorities about Odido • Universal Music Group | completes acquisition of Downtown Music Holding by Virgin Music Group • PostNL | overall picture 4Q25 fairly in line with our expectations • Dutch politics | high coalition spending will increase government debt • Corporate agenda | week 9 – 12

Netherlands

PostNL NV collects, transports, stores, sorts, and distributes letters, printed matter, parcels, documents, and freight items.  The Company provides mail and logistics services domestically and internationally.

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PostNL NV (PNL NA)

In-depth report: PostNL | Reaching For The Moon ….?

PostNL’s new strategy appears well-calibrated, with E-commerce shifting from volume to value and Platforms expansion building on proven growth,...

The IDEA!

Research Alert: PostNL | Reaching For The Moon ….?

PostNL’s new strategy appears well-calibrated, with E-commerce shifting from volume to value and Platforms expansion building on proven growth,...

The IDEA!

Duplicate of In-depth report: PostNL | Reaching For The Moon ….?

PostNL’s new strategy appears well-calibrated, with E-commerce shifting from volume to value and Platforms expansion building on proven growth,...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 2 September (E-commerce & Logistics)

In yesterday’s edition, we cited French customs data showing a 30-40% drop in small parcel volumes coming from China as a result of the abolition...

The IDEA!

PostNL NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • KPN | flood of complaints at several authorities about Odido • Universal Music Group | completes acquisition of Downtown Music...

The IDEA!

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