Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the March rebalance complete, there could be 6 potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> using the current index methodology.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 13.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 28.6bn. Four inclusions will have over 1x ADV to buy; five deletions will have 2.5x+ ADV to sell.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 28.6% over the last month. With positioning from a rebalance perspective mostly done, gradually unwind over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the March rebalance complete, there could be 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
Estimated one-way turnover is 13.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 28.6bn. Four inclusions will have over 1x ADV to buy; five deletions will have 2.5x+ ADV to sell.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 28.6% over the last month. With positioning from a rebalance perspective mostly done, gradually unwind over the next few weeks.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run

Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Steady and strong profit is the key features of Power Finance and this is improving during FY24.</li>
<li>ROA expansion can continue to reach and possibly surpass the peaks of FY15 and FY16 with loan volume, contained costs, better credit metrics.</li>
<li>Recent quarterly data shows better loan volume and financial assets expanding more than financial liabilities, with credit costs in reverse.</li>
</ul>


Steady and strong profit is the key features of Power Finance and this is improving during FY24.
ROA expansion can continue to reach and possibly surpass the peaks of FY15 and FY16 with loan volume, contained costs, better credit metrics.
Recent quarterly data shows better loan volume and financial assets expanding more than financial liabilities, with credit costs in reverse.


Power Finance - Largest NBFC in India, Direct Focus on Power Infrastructure, Steady, Strong Returns

<ul>
<li>Recently awarded "Maharatna" status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this</li>
<li>Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics</li>
<li>Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers</li>
</ul>


Recently awarded "Maharatna" status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this
Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics
Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers


RECL - Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.</li>
<li>Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.
Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13579:1" rel="noopener">Power Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astral-poly-technik-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7890:1" rel="noopener">Astral</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cummins-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7365:1" rel="noopener">Cummins India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supreme-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11443:1" rel="noopener">Supreme Industries</a> have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.</li>
<li>The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.</li>
<li>We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.</li>
</ul>



Power Finance, Astral, IDFC First Bank, Cummins India, HDFC Asset Management, Ashok Leyland, Polycab India and Supreme Industries have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.
The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.
We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.


India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

India

Power Finance Corporation funds power projects in India.  The Company serves state power utilities, central power sector utilities, power departments, private power sector utilities, joint sector power utilities, power equipment manufacturers, and municipal power utilities.

Power Finance (POWF IN)

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run

With the review period complete, there could be 6 changes for the NIFTY NEXT50 in March. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes...

Brian Freitas

Power Finance - Largest NBFC in India, Direct Focus on Power Infrastructure, Steady, Strong Returns

Power Finance is India's largest non-banking finance company, the only direct play on power infrastructure, including renewable energy, with good...

Daniel Tabbush

RECL - Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

High demand for power related lending can last for decades, marked improvement in credit metrics, new Maharatna status (only 12 companies have...

Daniel Tabbush

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

We see 42 potential migrations between the size categories. The small to mid migrations have outperformed. There will be a lot of overlap between...

Brian Freitas

India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

Quite a few Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get the...

Brian Freitas