Independent Analyst

Niklas Olausson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The NOAA has confirmed that the world is at the start of an El Niño, which means less rainfall in Southeast Asia and pressure on oil palm yields.   </li>
<li>Early signs point to a severe event, which would cause a significant edible oil deficit in 2024. Ongoing drought in the U.S. is a budding wild card, affecting soybeans. </li>
<li>The report projects a 40% YoY higher average crude palm oil price in 2024. Given depressed consensus expectations and undemanding valuation, the risk-reward is bullish on a 6-12 month horizon. </li>
</ul>


The NOAA has confirmed that the world is at the start of an El Niño, which means less rainfall in Southeast Asia and pressure on oil palm yields.   
Early signs point to a severe event, which would cause a significant edible oil deficit in 2024. Ongoing drought in the U.S. is a budding wild card, affecting soybeans. 
The report projects a 40% YoY higher average crude palm oil price in 2024. Given depressed consensus expectations and undemanding valuation, the risk-reward is bullish on a 6-12 month horizon. 


Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Aggregate FFB production of plantation companies under our coverage reached 1,844k tons in 1Q25, reflecting modest growth of +0.9% YoY (vs 1,827k tons in 1Q24).</li><li>The figure was in-line with our expectations, supported by a recovery from the drought conditions experienced in 1Q24, amid intensified rainfall in 1Q25 driven by the onset of La Nina since late last year.</li><li>DSNG was the only company that saw a YoY decline in FFB output, falling -8.7% due to its ongoing replanting initiative (&gt;3k ha completed as of 1Q25). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aggregate FFB production of plantation companies under our coverage reached 1,844k tons in 1Q25, reflecting modest growth of +0.9% YoY (vs 1,827k tons in 1Q24).The figure was in-line with our expectations, supported by a recovery from the drought conditions experienced in 1Q24, amid intensified rainfall in 1Q25 driven by the onset of La Nina since late last year.DSNG was the only company that saw a YoY decline in FFB output, falling -8.7% due to its ongoing replanting initiative (&gt;3k ha completed as of 1Q25). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayamitra-telekomunikasi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Dayamitra Telekomunikasi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

<ul><li>We anticipate flat CPO output in FY25F, attributed to another year of La Nina.</li><li>On the flip side, export volume is expected to weaken amid solid domestic demand, which underpins CPO prices.</li><li>Notably, CPO production dropped by -4.8% YoY to 31.5mn tons in 7M24 (vs 33.1mn tons in 7M23), with PKO output tumbling by -5.2% YoY to 3.0mn tons (vs 3.2mn tons in 7M23). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We anticipate flat CPO output in FY25F, attributed to another year of La Nina.On the flip side, export volume is expected to weaken amid solid domestic demand, which underpins CPO prices.Notably, CPO production dropped by -4.8% YoY to 31.5mn tons in 7M24 (vs 33.1mn tons in 7M23), with PKO output tumbling by -5.2% YoY to 3.0mn tons (vs 3.2mn tons in 7M23). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Plantation Sectoral Update November 15, 2024

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>In the past week, we saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak'</a>s building ecosystem, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospitals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospitals'</a> growing base case revenues, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia's</a> core diagnostic strength. </li>
<li>We also had an insight on the ongoing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> merger along with a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a>'s expiring lock-ups.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
In the past week, we saw insights on Bukalapak's building ecosystem, Siloam International Hospitals' growing base case revenues, and Prodia's core diagnostic strength. 
We also had an insight on the ongoing True Corp Pcl and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) merger along with a look at Bukalapak's expiring lock-ups.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma- Bukalapak Building, Siloam's Base Case, and Prodia Diagnosed

Indonesia

PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk cultivates, harvests, and processes palm oil, rubber, coconut, cocoa, coffee, and tea.

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PP London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP IJ)

Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?

The El Niño is back and is likely to evolve into a severe event, resulting in significant oil palm yield compression. Plantations are cheap, even...

Niklas Olausson

Plantation Sectoral Update June 26, 2025

Aggregate FFB production of plantation companies under our coverage reached 1,844k tons in 1Q25, reflecting modest growth of +0.9% YoY (vs 1,827k...

MNC Sekuritas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Plantation Sectoral Update November 15, 2024

We anticipate flat CPO output in FY25F, attributed to another year of La Nina. On the flip side, export volume is expected to weaken amid solid...

MNC Sekuritas

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma- Bukalapak Building, Siloam's Base Case, and Prodia Diagnosed

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?

The El Niño is back and is likely to evolve into a severe event, resulting in significant oil palm yield compression. Plantations are cheap, even...

Niklas Olausson

Plantation Sectoral Update June 26, 2025

Aggregate FFB production of plantation companies under our coverage reached 1,844k tons in 1Q25, reflecting modest growth of +0.9% YoY (vs 1,827k...

MNC Sekuritas

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Plantation Sectoral Update November 15, 2024

We anticipate flat CPO output in FY25F, attributed to another year of La Nina. On the flip side, export volume is expected to weaken amid solid...

MNC Sekuritas

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma- Bukalapak Building, Siloam's Base Case, and Prodia Diagnosed

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation