Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Only Gets Hotter from Here On. Summer typically starts in February in Thailand. In the South, there are only two seasons, but elsewhere, summer will stretch between February to around May. We are not saying every stock in this article is a buy. What we're saying is that for them, summer usually acts as an important sales catalyst or at least a time when they gain attention from investors yo. The rainy season, which starts in late May and goes all the way to October, is by far the country's…

Only Gets Hotter from Here On. Summer typically starts in February in Thailand. In the South, there are only two seasons, but elsewhere, summer will stretch between February to around May. We are not saying every stock in this article is a buy. What we're saying is that for them, summer usually acts as an important sales catalyst or at least a time when they gain attention from investors yo. The rainy season, which starts in late May and goes all the way to October, is by far the country's…

In this review, we highlight the importance for investors to: 1) not 'jump the gun' and sell on companies that are in decline; and 2) think logically about the macro picture, since those may have an impact on whether companies can recover or would lose relevance in the marketplace altogether.From our observations, the companies in Thailand that do turn around tend to follow one or more of these four measures, namely: 1) operations: a complete transformation rather than minor patch-ups (eg. KARMART, IVL); 2) competitive strategy: changing the frame of reference (PIZZA...now part of MINT); 3) debt restructuring (BLAND, TPI); and 4) marketing: re-branding (eg. DTAC, BTS). Whether you are stuck with certain investments or thinking about investing in potential turnaround plays, observing these four traits or steps could be helpful.

In this review, we highlight the importance for investors to: 1) not 'jump the gun' and sell on companies that are in decline; and 2) think logically about the macro picture, since those may have an impact on whether companies can recover or would lose relevance in the marketplace altogether.From our observations, the companies in Thailand that do turn around tend to follow one or more of these four measures, namely: 1) operations: a complete transformation rather than minor patch-ups (eg. KARMART, IVL); 2) competitive strategy: changing the frame of reference (PIZZA...now part of MINT); 3) debt restructuring (BLAND, TPI); and 4) marketing: re-branding (eg. DTAC, BTS). Whether you are stuck with certain investments or thinking about investing in potential turnaround plays, observing these four traits or steps could be helpful.

Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

We visited two companies with very different trajectories. <ul>
<li>Renewable power specialist DEMCO is struggling, despite doing really well in the past, while jeweler Pranda, once struggling, is on the recovery path.</li>
<li>DEMCO reported gross profit and revenue decline of 8% and 7% respectively. Their earnings more than doubled, but that's solely due to dividends from Wind Energy, an investment that cost them Bt800m and is embroiled in scandal.</li>
<li>Pranda's operating cash flows surged from Bt12m to Bt230m, as they restructured their store network.</li>
<li>We'd still be caution on PDJ, as management doesn't feel the restructuring is over. More stores could be closed down in the future.</li>
</ul>

We visited two companies with very different trajectories. 
Renewable power specialist DEMCO is struggling, despite doing really well in the past, while jeweler Pranda, once struggling, is on the recovery path.
DEMCO reported gross profit and revenue decline of 8% and 7% respectively. Their earnings more than doubled, but that's solely due to dividends from Wind Energy, an investment that cost them Bt800m and is embroiled in scandal.
Pranda's operating cash flows surged from Bt12m to Bt230m, as they restructured their store network.
We'd still be caution on PDJ, as management doesn't feel the restructuring is over. More stores could be closed down in the future.


Pranda isn't exactly outta the woods yet, but they are taking some tough measures to turn around the business. When we last met, they were in quite a fix due to the volatility of the B/E market ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-3-thailand-s-new-debt-crisis-hmm-maybe-not" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8293">Snippets#3: Thailand's New Debt Crisis? Hmm...Maybe Not</a>) which caused many creditors to call in their debts. During the period, Pranda reduced their debt level from Bt515m to Bt490m. At first glance, things may not seem like they have improved yet. Revenues dropped by a quarter YoY to Bt707m, and losses…

Pranda isn't exactly outta the woods yet, but they are taking some tough measures to turn around the business. When we last met, they were in quite a fix due to the volatility of the B/E market ( Snippets#3: Thailand's New Debt Crisis? Hmm...Maybe Not) which caused many creditors to call in their debts. During the period, Pranda reduced their debt level from Bt515m to Bt490m. At first glance, things may not seem like they have improved yet. Revenues dropped by a quarter YoY to Bt707m, and losses…

Pranda was the last company visit in March this year. We gotta admit that things aren't going quite so well for them as it has for cross-town rival Jubilee. The company was founded in 1973 and has three factories located in Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia with a total capacity of 4m pieces/yr. The word "factory" and the 71% capacity utilisation can be a bit deceptive. It's more like a production facility with craftsman, because you can't "mass-produce" jewelry design. Things just don't work…

Pranda was the last company visit in March this year. We gotta admit that things aren't going quite so well for them as it has for cross-town rival Jubilee. The company was founded in 1973 and has three factories located in Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia with a total capacity of 4m pieces/yr. The word "factory" and the 71% capacity utilisation can be a bit deceptive. It's more like a production facility with craftsman, because you can't "mass-produce" jewelry design. Things just don't work…

Thailand

Pranda Jewelry Public Company Limited manufactures and distributes fine jewelry, including gold, silver, and gemstone jewelry, under brands such as Prima Gold, Prima Art, Merii, and Gemondo. The company operates globally with production facilities in Thailand and Vietnam, and distribution networks across North America, Europe, and Asia. Pranda Jewelry is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1973.

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Pranda Jewelry (PDJ TB)

This Ain't Winterfell, Summer Is Coming!

Only Gets Hotter from Here On. Summer typically starts in February in Thailand. In the South, there are only two seasons, but elsewhere, summer...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead

In this review, we highlight the importance for investors to: 1) not 'jump the gun' and sell on companies that are in decline; and 2) think...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Shaky Situations at DEMCO and Pranda

We visited two companies with very different trajectories. Renewable power specialist DEMCO is struggling, despite doing really well in the past,...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Pranda's Tough Love Road to Recovery

Pranda isn't exactly outta the woods yet, but they are taking some tough measures to turn around the business. When we last met, they were in quite...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

PDJ: The Struggling Jeweler of Bangkok

Pranda was the last company visit in March this year. We gotta admit that things aren't going quite so well for them as it has for cross-town rival...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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