Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported a decent set of results for Q1 FY24. Revenue for the quarter was up 2.8% QoQ and 6.3% YoY, ahead of consensus estimates (2.3% &amp; 5.9%).</li>
<li>The gross margin came in at 53%, 3 percentage points ahead of consensus, and an increase of 7 percentage points on Q1 FY23.</li>
<li>The gross margin for the Fintech and Business Services segment, which accounts for 33% of revenue, increased by 12 percentage points to 46% (consensus 42.6%).</li>
</ul>


Tencent reported a decent set of results for Q1 FY24. Revenue for the quarter was up 2.8% QoQ and 6.3% YoY, ahead of consensus estimates (2.3% &amp; 5.9%).
The gross margin came in at 53%, 3 percentage points ahead of consensus, and an increase of 7 percentage points on Q1 FY23.
The gross margin for the Fintech and Business Services segment, which accounts for 33% of revenue, increased by 12 percentage points to 46% (consensus 42.6%).


Tencent (700 HK): Q1 FY24 Results Quick Take, Margin Expansion Drives Decent Set of Results

<ul>
<li>Last week Monday, Tencent confirmed the early release of Dungeon and Fighter Mobile, a highly anticipated mobile adaptation of the computer game developed by Nexon.</li>
<li>The game is expected to be released in China on the 21st of May following positive test results.</li>
<li>Tencent was the 11th best performing constituent in the HSTECH index for the week (out of 30), returning 14.7%. The index ended the week up 13.4%.</li>
</ul>


Last week Monday, Tencent confirmed the early release of Dungeon and Fighter Mobile, a highly anticipated mobile adaptation of the computer game developed by Nexon.
The game is expected to be released in China on the 21st of May following positive test results.
Tencent was the 11th best performing constituent in the HSTECH index for the week (out of 30), returning 14.7%. The index ended the week up 13.4%.


NPN X PRX Discount Update Post Tencent Early Game Release News Flow

<ul>
<li>The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have widened during the last 5 trading sessions.</li>
<li>We see current levels as attractive entry points for trading the rump.</li>
<li>In our view, there are a number of fundamental factors that could act as positive catalysts to a further structural narrowing of the discount.</li>
</ul>


The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have widened during the last 5 trading sessions.
We see current levels as attractive entry points for trading the rump.
In our view, there are a number of fundamental factors that could act as positive catalysts to a further structural narrowing of the discount.


NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook

<ul>
<li>Naspers and Prosus outperformed the benchmark by a large margin, ending the quarter up 7.3% and 6.7%, respectively. The Capped SWIX finished the quarter down 2.3%.</li>
<li>Tencent was up 3.5% in HKD and 6.5% in ZAR.</li>
<li>Tencent currently makes up 74% of Prosus’ NAV, down 1 percentage point from 75% at the start of the year.</li>
</ul>


Naspers and Prosus outperformed the benchmark by a large margin, ending the quarter up 7.3% and 6.7%, respectively. The Capped SWIX finished the quarter down 2.3%.
Tencent was up 3.5% in HKD and 6.5% in ZAR.
Tencent currently makes up 74% of Prosus’ NAV, down 1 percentage point from 75% at the start of the year.


Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): Performance for Q1 2024, Gains Driven by Tencent, NAV Growth

China

Prosus N.V. provides internet based services. The Company focuses on investments in internet, digital media, e-commerce retailing, and consumer internet companies. Prosus serves customers worldwide.

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Prosus NV (PRX SJ)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Tencent (700 HK): Q1 FY24 Results Quick Take, Margin Expansion Drives Decent Set of Results

Tencent reported a decent set of results for Q1 FY24, driven by notable margin expansion across segments (well ahead of consensus estimates).

DMA

NPN X PRX Discount Update Post Tencent Early Game Release News Flow

Naspers outperformed Prosus last week as Tencent announced that DnF mobile would be released earlier on the 21st of May.

DMA

NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook

There has been a notable widening in the discounts of both Naspers and Prosus following Fed rhetoric. This coupled with a number of potential...

DMA

Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): Performance for Q1 2024, Gains Driven by Tencent, NAV Growth

A look into the performance of Naspers and Prosus for the first quarter of 2024. Gains were driven by Tencent and a weaker Rand (NAV growth) as...

DMA

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