Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise over US$1bn in its HK IPO after having tried to list in the US last year.</li>
<li>FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the updates from the HK filing.</li>
</ul>


FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise over US$1bn in its HK IPO after having tried to list in the US last year.
FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
In this note, we will talk about the updates from the HK filing.


FWD Pre-IPO - Updates from HK Filings, Trends Remain as Confusing as Ever

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fwd-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34332:1" rel="noopener">FWD Group Holdings (FWD US)</a> is seeking to raise $2 billion. We outlined the fundamentals in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-group-ipo-forward-march" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58263" rel="noopener">FWD Group IPO: Forward March</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-group-vs-aia-vs-prudential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58967" rel="noopener">FWD Group Vs AIA Vs Prudential</a>. </li>
<li>FWD has released its 9M21 results. Like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, the Delta variant had an impact resulting in a lower APE and VNB growth in 3Q21 vs 1H21.  </li>
<li>In light of the weak sentiment for Chinese ADRs, we err on the side of caution and need to see evidence of a return to normalcy to recommend the IPO.</li>
</ul>



FWD Group Holdings (FWD US) is seeking to raise $2 billion. We outlined the fundamentals in FWD Group IPO: Forward March and FWD Group Vs AIA Vs Prudential. 
FWD has released its 9M21 results. Like AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), the Delta variant had an impact resulting in a lower APE and VNB growth in 3Q21 vs 1H21.  
In light of the weak sentiment for Chinese ADRs, we err on the side of caution and need to see evidence of a return to normalcy to recommend the IPO.


FWD Group IPO: Slow 3Q Due to COVID-19 Disruptions

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<em><strong>Better, But Off A Low Base:</strong></em> AIA Group's (1299.HK) [AIA] limited set of 3Q21 results, where VONB declined 3.5% on a linked quarter basis due weaker new sales volume; </li>
<li>
<em><strong>Many Deal Distractions:</strong></em>AIA has gone on a deal-making spree in 2021, announcing six separate transactions to date; and  </li>
<li>
<em><strong>Suffocating Hong Kong Business:</strong></em> AIA’s core Hong Kong business has been an unmitigated disaster during COVID-19, struggling with mainland Chinese visitors. Further, there is limited clarity on AIA’s legacy agents. </li>
</ul>



Better, But Off A Low Base: AIA Group's (1299.HK) [AIA] limited set of 3Q21 results, where VONB declined 3.5% on a linked quarter basis due weaker new sales volume; 

Many Deal Distractions:AIA has gone on a deal-making spree in 2021, announcing six separate transactions to date; and  

Suffocating Hong Kong Business: AIA’s core Hong Kong business has been an unmitigated disaster during COVID-19, struggling with mainland Chinese visitors. Further, there is limited clarity on AIA’s legacy agents. 


AIA Group – No Word On Massive Deal Risk

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fwd-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34332:1" rel="noopener">FWD Group Holdings (FWD US)</a> is a Pan-Asia insurer founded in 2013 by Richard Li. FWD is seeking to raise $2 billion through an NYSE IPO and a valuation between $13 billion and $15 billion, according to press reports. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-group-ipo-forward-march" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58263" rel="noopener">FWD Group IPO: Forward March</a>, we stated that in the long-term, FWD’s compelling customer propositions and multi-channel distribution across different geographies within Asia will likely support further market share gains. FWD notes that there remains significant potential for cross-selling and up-selling to its millennial customers (59% of organic new individual policyholders in 1H21) as they advance through different life stages and gain spending power. On balance, we concluded that FWD has sufficient headroom to continue to gain market share while improving profitability. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>A successful listing of FWD will provide investors with a new proxy for Asian insurance growth vs well-established names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prudential-plc-4b9124ab-0799-4543-abca-bac6f31da5b6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34048:1" rel="noopener">Prudential PLC (2378 HK)</a>. Prudential’s recent oversubscribed share offer which raised US$2.4 billion in Hong Kong will help grow its investor base in Hong Kong and increase the liquidity of its shares on the HKEx. In this context, there is increasing interest in drawing comparisons between FWD, AIA and Prudential. In this note, we compare the insurers’ actuarial assumptions and key metrics across FWD’s key regions.  </p></div>

FWD Group Holdings (FWD US) is a Pan-Asia insurer founded in 2013 by Richard Li. FWD is seeking to raise $2 billion through an NYSE IPO and a valuation between $13 billion and $15 billion, according to press reports. In FWD Group IPO: Forward March, we stated that in the long-term, FWD’s compelling customer propositions and multi-channel distribution across different geographies within Asia will likely support further market share gains. FWD notes that there remains significant potential for cross-selling and up-selling to its millennial customers (59% of organic new individual policyholders in 1H21) as they advance through different life stages and gain spending power. On balance, we concluded that FWD has sufficient headroom to continue to gain market share while improving profitability. A successful listing of FWD will provide investors with a new proxy for Asian insurance growth vs well-established names such as AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and Prudential PLC (2378 HK). Prudential’s recent oversubscribed share offer which raised US$2.4 billion in Hong Kong will help grow its investor base in Hong Kong and increase the liquidity of its shares on the HKEx. In this context, there is increasing interest in drawing comparisons between FWD, AIA and Prudential. In this note, we compare the insurers’ actuarial assumptions and key metrics across FWD’s key regions.  

<div><p>FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. </p></div><div><p>FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia. Southeast Asia markets contributed over 40% of its Value of New Business (VNB) in 2020. It had served over 9.9m customers as of Jun 21.</p></div><div>
<div>In our previous note, we spoke about the positive  and negatives aspects of the deal in our earleir notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-pre-ipo-the-positives-growing-fast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FWD Pre-IPO - The Positives - Growing Fast</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-pre-ipo-the-negatives-strategy-remains-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FWD Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Strategy Remains Unclear </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-pre-ipo-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FWD Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison</a>.</div>
<div></div>
<div>In this note we will talk about valuations.</div>
</div>

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia. Southeast Asia markets contributed over 40% of its Value of New Business (VNB) in 2020. It had served over 9.9m customers as of Jun 21.
In our previous note, we spoke about the positive  and negatives aspects of the deal in our earleir notes, FWD Pre-IPO - The Positives - Growing Fast, FWD Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Strategy Remains Unclear and FWD Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison.

In this note we will talk about valuations.


Hong Kong

Prudential is a British multinational insurance and asset management company focused on providing life and health insurance and long-term savings products. It primarily serves customers in Asia and Africa, with its asset management business, Eastspring Investments, operating across Asia. The company was founded in London in May 1848 and is headquartered in London, England and Hong Kong.

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Prudential (PRU LN)

FWD Pre-IPO - Updates from HK Filings, Trends Remain as Confusing as Ever

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise over US$1bn in its HK IPO after having tried to list in the US last year.

Sumeet Singh

FWD Group IPO: Slow 3Q Due to COVID-19 Disruptions

The Delta variant had an impact resulting in a lower APE and VNB growth in 3Q21 vs 1H21. We err on the side of caution and need to see evidence of...

Arun George

AIA Group – No Word On Massive Deal Risk

AIA: AIA reported a limited set of 3Q21 results, where VONB declined 3.5% on a linked quarter basis due weaker new sales volume. No word on AIA's...

Thomas J. Monaco

FWD Group Vs AIA Vs Prudential

FWD is seeking to raise $2 billion through an NYSE IPO. In this note, we compare FWD, AIA and Pru’s actuarial assumptions and key metrics across...

Arun George

FWD Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. In this note we will talk about our thoughts on...

Sumeet Singh

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