ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a> saw a pronounced pick up in sales in 4Q2023 and the ongoing benefit of lower raw material prices boosted margins to 5-year highs. </li>
<li>The company expanded its distribution in 2023 and will continue in 2024, which coupled with new product launches, especially of economic products, should help to drive higher growth in 2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian</a> continues to drive its express service, which also helps to push new product growth. Its market leadership and track record justify valuations with further support from dividends.</li>
</ul>



PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) saw a pronounced pick up in sales in 4Q2023 and the ongoing benefit of lower raw material prices boosted margins to 5-year highs. 
The company expanded its distribution in 2023 and will continue in 2024, which coupled with new product launches, especially of economic products, should help to drive higher growth in 2024. 

PT Avia Avian continues to drive its express service, which also helps to push new product growth. Its market leadership and track record justify valuations with further support from dividends.


PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) - An Attractive Tint to 2024 Prospects

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a> is Indonesia's largest paint manufacturer with a strong track record, selling a wide range of architectural solutions products, with a countrywide distribution network. </li>
<li>The company continues to add to its product portfolio by adding more affordable products to cater for consumers trading down due to inflationary pressures depressing disposable incomes. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">Avia Avian</a> continues to add to its distribution network and has introduced express delivery that allows retailers to take more products but less inventory. Valuations are attractive with supportive dividends.</li>
</ul>



Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) is Indonesia's largest paint manufacturer with a strong track record, selling a wide range of architectural solutions products, with a countrywide distribution network. 
The company continues to add to its product portfolio by adding more affordable products to cater for consumers trading down due to inflationary pressures depressing disposable incomes. 

Avia Avian continues to add to its distribution network and has introduced express delivery that allows retailers to take more products but less inventory. Valuations are attractive with supportive dividends.


PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) - A More Glossy Future

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>The management’s latest guidance is cautiously optimistic with FY24 volume growth of 4-8% yoy for 6-10% top line growth. </li><li>2M24 sales depict a mixed view. We revise up our forecast of FY24-25F net profit forecast by 5.6% and 5.8% due to higher gross margins</li><li>Soft sales volume may pose risk to our forecast. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of Rp660, implying FY24F PE of 24.4x.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The management’s latest guidance is cautiously optimistic with FY24 volume growth of 4-8% yoy for 6-10% top line growth. 2M24 sales depict a mixed view. We revise up our forecast of FY24-25F net profit forecast by 5.6% and 5.8% due to higher gross marginsSoft sales volume may pose risk to our forecast. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of Rp660, implying FY24F PE of 24.4x.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Avia Avian Tbk (AVIA IJ) - Cautiously Optimistic FY24 Outlook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian</a> is Indonesia's leading integrated paint manufacturing company with around 20% market share. It is undergoing a strong recovery in margins as raw material inputs have stabilised. </li>
<li>The company continues to expand both its distribution centres and the range of products it offers, with a strong emphasis on below-the-line marketing, reaching 54,000 retail outlets.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a> is an interesting proxy for the strong recovery in Indonesia's economy and property market, with the added tailwind of lower input costs. Valuations are attractive. </li>
</ul>



PT Avia Avian is Indonesia's leading integrated paint manufacturing company with around 20% market share. It is undergoing a strong recovery in margins as raw material inputs have stabilised. 
The company continues to expand both its distribution centres and the range of products it offers, with a strong emphasis on below-the-line marketing, reaching 54,000 retail outlets.

PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) is an interesting proxy for the strong recovery in Indonesia's economy and property market, with the added tailwind of lower input costs. Valuations are attractive. 


PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) - Painting by Numbers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Amman Mineral Internasional / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

Indonesia

PT Avia Avian operates as an integrated paint company. The Company offers cement additive, spray paint, wood and metal coating, water proofing, wall paints, thinner, and other paint products. Avia Avian serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)