External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.</li><li>While previously a higher-for-longer scenario drove a lower ROE and sharp de-rating, FY24F ROE is resilient amid better asset quality.</li><li>We remain Overweight on the banking sector at the current implied CoE of 9.0%, -1SD to its 5-year average. BBCA remains our top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.While previously a higher-for-longer scenario drove a lower ROE and sharp de-rating, FY24F ROE is resilient amid better asset quality.We remain Overweight on the banking sector at the current implied CoE of 9.0%, -1SD to its 5-year average. BBCA remains our top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Solid asset quality and capital to weather macro uncertainties (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>Our FY23 results recap shows market EPS growth of -12% yoy, but growth would reach +4.1% if we exclude one-offs (mainly from GOTO).</li><li>We see mixed growth prospects for 1Q24 with ST headwinds in Banks and Telco, but possible outperformers in Consumers, Retail, Healthcare.</li><li>We reiterate our view on commodities as a possible ST tactical play, along with the defensive domestic names for preferred 2Q24 exposure.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our FY23 results recap shows market EPS growth of -12% yoy, but growth would reach +4.1% if we exclude one-offs (mainly from GOTO).We see mixed growth prospects for 1Q24 with ST headwinds in Banks and Telco, but possible outperformers in Consumers, Retail, Healthcare.We reiterate our view on commodities as a possible ST tactical play, along with the defensive domestic names for preferred 2Q24 exposure.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Short-Term Domestic Growth Challenges in 2Q24 May Drive Further De-Risking

<ul><li>We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.</li><li>We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.</li><li>Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

<ul><li>The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.</li><li>In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.</li><li>We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

<ul><li>Rising mortgage rates shall be one of the drivers of higher yieldsin FY24, inline with our sector thesis.</li><li>Among the big-4 banks, BBCA has the highest contribution from mortgages at 15.4% of total loans, followed by BBNI.</li><li>Maintain Overweight on the sector’s decent earnings growth, sound macro outlook, and potential rate cuts; BBCA and BMRI as ourtop picks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Rising mortgage rates shall be one of the drivers of higher yieldsin FY24, inline with our sector thesis.Among the big-4 banks, BBCA has the highest contribution from mortgages at 15.4% of total loans, followed by BBNI.Maintain Overweight on the sector’s decent earnings growth, sound macro outlook, and potential rate cuts; BBCA and BMRI as ourtop picks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: On-Track for Higher Yields and NIMs in FY24 (OVERWEIGHT)

Indonesia

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is Indonesia's largest bank, providing a wide range of banking products and services to individuals and businesses. These offerings include savings and current accounts, various loans, credit and debit cards, e-banking, investment products, and insurance services. The bank was formed on October 2, 1998, through the merger of four state-owned banks and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)

Banks: Solid asset quality and capital to weather macro uncertainties (OVERWEIGHT)

We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Strategy: Short-Term Domestic Growth Challenges in 2Q24 May Drive Further De-Risking

Our FY23 results recap shows market EPS growth of -12% yoy, but growth would reach +4.1% if we exclude one-offs (mainly from GOTO).

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity. We expect the big-4 banks to still...

BRI Danareksa Research

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: On-Track for Higher Yields and NIMs in FY24 (OVERWEIGHT)

Maintain Overweight on the sector’s decent earnings growth, sound macro outlook, and potential rate cuts; BBCA and BMRI as ourtop picks.

BRI Danareksa Research

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