Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Syariah Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-syariah-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ)</a> reported 11% QoQ net profit in 4Q24</li>
<li>Credit costs are down nearly 75% QoQ and annually, there are improving figures</li>
<li>Fee income growth is relatively new, ROA expansion can continue, to even &gt;3% from this</li>
</ul>



Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ) reported 11% QoQ net profit in 4Q24
Credit costs are down nearly 75% QoQ and annually, there are improving figures
Fee income growth is relatively new, ROA expansion can continue, to even &gt;3% from this


BRIS - Strong Numbers Just Out, Asset Growth High, Credit Costs Low, Fees Doing Well

<ul>
<li>BCA is showing a strong rise in its LDR, and this had been an historical concern</li>
<li>Its asset-liability management (ALM) is improving, with NIM moving higher still</li>
<li>No evidence of marked deterioration in credit metrics, provision costs are conservative</li>
</ul>


BCA is showing a strong rise in its LDR, and this had been an historical concern
Its asset-liability management (ALM) is improving, with NIM moving higher still
No evidence of marked deterioration in credit metrics, provision costs are conservative


BCA - Focus on LDR, Which Had Historically Been a Problem, Too Low, With Stable Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.</li>
<li>There is passive inflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO)</a> due to index inclusion, and on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a> due to capping changes.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.
There is passive inflow on Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO) due to index inclusion, and on Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA) due to capping changes.
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

Indonesia

PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk (bank bjb) is a commercial bank providing conventional and Sharia banking services, including deposits, loans, credit cards, and treasury services. It serves individuals, businesses, and government entities, focusing on economic development in the West Java and Banten regions. The bank is headquartered in Bandung, Indonesia, and was founded on May 20, 1961.

Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten (BJBR IJ)

Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten (BJBR IJ)

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

BRIS - Strong Numbers Just Out, Asset Growth High, Credit Costs Low, Fees Doing Well

BRIS just released its 4Q24 results, with strong numbers. Asset growth is high, credit costs are down, fee income is improving.

Daniel Tabbush

BCA - Focus on LDR, Which Had Historically Been a Problem, Too Low, With Stable Credit Metrics

BCA is seeing its LDR rise in recent quarters and the rise in 3Q24 alone is even stronger than preceding quarters. Credit metrics remain strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

BRIS - Strong Numbers Just Out, Asset Growth High, Credit Costs Low, Fees Doing Well

BRIS just released its 4Q24 results, with strong numbers. Asset growth is high, credit costs are down, fee income is improving.

Daniel Tabbush

BCA - Focus on LDR, Which Had Historically Been a Problem, Too Low, With Stable Credit Metrics

BCA is seeing its LDR rise in recent quarters and the rise in 3Q24 alone is even stronger than preceding quarters. Credit metrics remain strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI