External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Investment loans continue to be the backbone of growth and asset quality, while deteriorating consumer asset quality persisted in 1H25.</li><li>We observed worsening asset quality across all types of consumer loans, with middle-income mortgage facing the biggest deterioration.</li><li>We maintain Neutral view on the banking sector amid the valuation derating due to asset quality risk and lack of ST catalyst.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Investment loans continue to be the backbone of growth and asset quality, while deteriorating consumer asset quality persisted in 1H25.We observed worsening asset quality across all types of consumer loans, with middle-income mortgage facing the biggest deterioration.We maintain Neutral view on the banking sector amid the valuation derating due to asset quality risk and lack of ST catalyst.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate minimal impact on CoF (1-3bps) and earnings (0.4-1.5%) on SOE banks after raising their USD TD rates to 4%.</li><li>We see downside risks from deposit dollarization and weaker Rupiah, although the plan could also benefit domestic liquidity and economy.</li><li>Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate minimal impact on CoF (1-3bps) and earnings (0.4-1.5%) on SOE banks after raising their USD TD rates to 4%.We see downside risks from deposit dollarization and weaker Rupiah, although the plan could also benefit domestic liquidity and economy.Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The Rp200tr state funds placed in selected banks could potentially lower CoF by 1-16bps, if no loan growth target is required.</li><li>Otherwise, we see potential downside in NIM and asset quality, especially if economic growth remains stagnant post the stimulus.</li><li>Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Rp200tr state funds placed in selected banks could potentially lower CoF by 1-16bps, if no loan growth target is required.Otherwise, we see potential downside in NIM and asset quality, especially if economic growth remains stagnant post the stimulus.Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Liquidity Support, Asset Quality Risk: A Double-Edged Sword (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>JCI rallied by a strong 4.8% w-w and was the top performer among the EM markets last week.</li><li>The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, DSSA).</li><li>Market’s rally was also driven by the strong return in foreign investors’ flow which amounted to US$412mn, which put Indonesia among the only market with positive flow among the Asian EMs, with notable inflows into large-cap banks and TLKM. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JCI rallied by a strong 4.8% w-w and was the top performer among the EM markets last week.The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, DSSA).Market’s rally was also driven by the strong return in foreign investors’ flow which amounted to US$412mn, which put Indonesia among the only market with positive flow among the Asian EMs, with notable inflows into large-cap banks and TLKM. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

<ul><li>The 2026 budget balances fiscal prudence with acceleration growth, prioritizing 8 national agendas, aiming for 5.4% GDP growth.</li><li>Revenue target projects 9.8% growth, driven by higher tax collections requiring improvement in tax collection and reforms.</li><li>The fiscal plan moderates deficit to 2.48% in 2026, controlling debt supply while conservative yield assumptions provide fiscal buffer.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The 2026 budget balances fiscal prudence with acceleration growth, prioritizing 8 national agendas, aiming for 5.4% GDP growth.Revenue target projects 9.8% growth, driven by higher tax collections requiring improvement in tax collection and reforms.The fiscal plan moderates deficit to 2.48% in 2026, controlling debt supply while conservative yield assumptions provide fiscal buffer.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: The 2026 Proposed Budget: Building Up Momentum

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is one of Indonesia's largest banks, specializing in providing banking products and services, including savings accounts, loans, and other financial solutions to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), as well as retail and corporate clients. The company also offers investment, insurance, and digital banking services. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the bank was founded on December 16, 1895.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

Banks: Middle Income Trapped (NEUTRAL)

Investment loans continue to be the backbone of growth and asset quality, while deteriorating consumer asset quality persisted in 1H25.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: USD Deposits and IDR Liquidity...

Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Liquidity Support, Asset Quality Risk: A Double-Edged Sword (NEUTRAL)

Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: The 2026 Proposed Budget: Building Up Momentum

The 2026 budget balances fiscal prudence with acceleration growth, prioritizing 8 national agendas, aiming for 5.4% GDP growth.

BRI Danareksa Research

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