Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

<ul>
<li>SMFG can benefit like peer banks from BOJ policy change, but less so than MUFG, while at the same time, there does not appear to be a strong alpha story</li>
<li>ROE and ROA for SMFG show now expansion over the years, and this is stark contrast to MUFG, part of this appears to be due many weak subsidiaries</li>
<li>Credit costs are now averaging 23bps over the past four quarters vs 13bps during 1Q18 to 4Q19, not improving credit metrics like many others, with high write-offs.</li>
</ul>


SMFG can benefit like peer banks from BOJ policy change, but less so than MUFG, while at the same time, there does not appear to be a strong alpha story
ROE and ROA for SMFG show now expansion over the years, and this is stark contrast to MUFG, part of this appears to be due many weak subsidiaries
Credit costs are now averaging 23bps over the past four quarters vs 13bps during 1Q18 to 4Q19, not improving credit metrics like many others, with high write-offs.


SMFG (8316) - 75% Less JGBs than MUFG | Affiliates Show Worsening Profit | Credit Costs ~2x Vs Past

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>A conversation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a> post results revealed some interesting near term and longer-term trends and initiatives as the economy recovers and it takes the brakes off lending.</li>
<li>BIFAST for instant transfers 24-7 with lower fees will impact the bank's fee income, although volume increases offset the impact plus BCA is gaining a share of transactions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>'s strategy is to follow its customers and enable their financial journey through connecting to an ever broader ecosystem. Valuations look more reasonable rolling into 2023.</li>
</ul>


A conversation with Bank Central Asia post results revealed some interesting near term and longer-term trends and initiatives as the economy recovers and it takes the brakes off lending.
BIFAST for instant transfers 24-7 with lower fees will impact the bank's fee income, although volume increases offset the impact plus BCA is gaining a share of transactions.

Bank Central Asia's strategy is to follow its customers and enable their financial journey through connecting to an ever broader ecosystem. Valuations look more reasonable rolling into 2023.


Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - The Mother of Connection

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago</a> recently released its 2Q2022 results. It again registered a quarterly profit, down on 1Q2021, and a victim of its own success but preparing well for future growth.</li>
<li>The bank continues to grow its KYC'd customers, which reached 3.3m in 2Q2022, with 300k-400k new customers a month as a result of improvements in the onboarding process. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago</a>'s future is all about its ecosystem and it has only started to scratch the surface of synergies but investors need to look to the long term for returns.</li>
</ul>



Bank Jago recently released its 2Q2022 results. It again registered a quarterly profit, down on 1Q2021, and a victim of its own success but preparing well for future growth.
The bank continues to grow its KYC'd customers, which reached 3.3m in 2Q2022, with 300k-400k new customers a month as a result of improvements in the onboarding process. 

Bank Jago's future is all about its ecosystem and it has only started to scratch the surface of synergies but investors need to look to the long term for returns.


Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) - Look to the Horizon

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allo-bank-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33551:1" rel="noopener">Allo Bank Indonesia Tbk PT (BBHI IJ)</a> transaction exemplifies the rush to build digital banking capabilities in Indonesia with strong shareholder ecosystem now in place</li>
<li>Mainstream banks are not standing still on digital banking capabilities building internal capabilities and in some cases standalone digital banks presenting tough competition for newcomers.</li>
<li>From a consumer digital banking perspective we see blu, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago (ARTO IJ)</a> , SeaBank, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allo-bank-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33551:1" rel="noopener">Allo Bank (BBHI IJ)</a> as having the greatest chance of success.</li>
</ul>


The recent Allo Bank Indonesia Tbk PT (BBHI IJ) transaction exemplifies the rush to build digital banking capabilities in Indonesia with strong shareholder ecosystem now in place
Mainstream banks are not standing still on digital banking capabilities building internal capabilities and in some cases standalone digital banks presenting tough competition for newcomers.
From a consumer digital banking perspective we see blu, Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) , SeaBank, and Allo Bank (BBHI IJ) as having the greatest chance of success.


CrossASEAN Digital - All Rise Indonesia's Digital Banks

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> released a solid set of 1H2021 results, which underlined its resilience in the face of COVID-19 but a real stand out from the numbers were the ongoing successes from its digital strategies both in terms of promoting products through online expos, as well as the continuing growth in both of transactional and digital banking franchises. 
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BBCA:IJ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PT Bank Central Asia</a> recently announced that it will invest US$200m into its digital arm to fend off competition from new entrants to digital banking.
The bank will use the fresh funds to help Blu to increase market share ahead of an IPO within the next two years. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> plans to increase Blu’s capital to IDR4tn (US$278m), from around IDR1tn currently.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> will focus on winning more merchants, partners, and customers for Blu and intends to maintain a majority stake in the entity after listing.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> is already well ahead of its peers and any digital player on mobile banking and is Indonesia's leading bank in terms of transactional banking.
The bank saw 54% of all transactions by value and 86% of transactions by volume going through mobile or internet banking in 1H2021. This gives it access to high levels of CASA, providing the bank with a very low cost of funds.
Our view is that new digital players are more likely to take market share from smaller banks rather than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and see the bank maintaining its lead in transactional banking in Indonesia. Blu also has the advantage of being backed by a well-known and trusted lender, which will help to attract new customers. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> trades on 4x FY21E PBV and is forecast to generate an ROE of 15.5% for FY21E and 17.0% in FY22E. It is one of the best-managed banks in Indonesia with a very strong risk management culture combined with a dynamic and innovative management culture, which coupled with its lead in transactional banking, allows the bank to command a significant premium over its peers.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) released a solid set of 1H2021 results, which underlined its resilience in the face of COVID-19 but a real stand out from the numbers were the ongoing successes from its digital strategies both in terms of promoting products through online expos, as well as the continuing growth in both of transactional and digital banking franchises. 
PT Bank Central Asia recently announced that it will invest US$200m into its digital arm to fend off competition from new entrants to digital banking.
The bank will use the fresh funds to help Blu to increase market share ahead of an IPO within the next two years. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) plans to increase Blu’s capital to IDR4tn (US$278m), from around IDR1tn currently.
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) will focus on winning more merchants, partners, and customers for Blu and intends to maintain a majority stake in the entity after listing.
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) is already well ahead of its peers and any digital player on mobile banking and is Indonesia's leading bank in terms of transactional banking.
The bank saw 54% of all transactions by value and 86% of transactions by volume going through mobile or internet banking in 1H2021. This gives it access to high levels of CASA, providing the bank with a very low cost of funds.
Our view is that new digital players are more likely to take market share from smaller banks rather than Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and see the bank maintaining its lead in transactional banking in Indonesia. Blu also has the advantage of being backed by a well-known and trusted lender, which will help to attract new customers. 
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) trades on 4x FY21E PBV and is forecast to generate an ROE of 15.5% for FY21E and 17.0% in FY22E. It is one of the best-managed banks in Indonesia with a very strong risk management culture combined with a dynamic and innovative management culture, which coupled with its lead in transactional banking, allows the bank to command a significant premium over its peers. 

PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - The Future Is Blu

Indonesia

PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is an Indonesia-based commercial bank offering a wide range of banking products and services, including retail, micro, small & medium enterprises (MSME), corporate, sharia, and financing. The company provides loan products, transaction banking, investment products, and bancassurance services. It was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank SMBC Indonesia (BTPN IJ)

SMFG (8316) - 75% Less JGBs than MUFG | Affiliates Show Worsening Profit | Credit Costs ~2x Vs Past

SMFG appears less leveraged to BOJ policy changes than MUFG, especially with ~75% less JGBs. It appears a less interesting alpha story; profit...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - The Mother of Connection

A conversation with Bank Central Asia post results revealed some interesting near-term and longer-term trends and initiatives as the economy...

Angus Mackintosh

Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) - Look to the Horizon

Bank Jago's future is all about its ecosystem and it has only started to scratch the surface of potential synergies but investors need to look to...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Digital - All Rise Indonesia's Digital Banks

The recent Allo Bank Indonesia transaction exemplifies the rush to build digital banking capabilities in Indonesia with a strong shareholder...

Angus Mackintosh

PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - The Future Is Blu

Bank Centra Asia will inject more funds into its standalone digital bank BCA Digital or Blu to help fend off competition from new digital players...

Angus Mackintosh

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