Corporate Credit Analyst

Alan Greene

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.<div class="content-highlight">We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. </div>An…

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. An…

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the past, we had been neutral on Indonesian banks, due to the government’s populist, market unfriendly macro-economic policies and the risk of worsening credit quality in the bank system</li>
<li>There are early indications that the government is reining in its market unfriendly policies, and, in specific cases, certain banks have delivered better-than-expected credit quality</li>
<li>We upgrade Bank Mandiri and Negara to buy recommendations, partly on the prospect of less damaging macro-economic policies but also on attractive valuations and better-than-expected credit quality and balance sheets</li>
</ul>


In the past, we had been neutral on Indonesian banks, due to the government’s populist, market unfriendly macro-economic policies and the risk of worsening credit quality in the bank system
There are early indications that the government is reining in its market unfriendly policies, and, in specific cases, certain banks have delivered better-than-expected credit quality
We upgrade Bank Mandiri and Negara to buy recommendations, partly on the prospect of less damaging macro-economic policies but also on attractive valuations and better-than-expected credit quality and balance sheets


Indonesian Banks – Much Bad News Discounted, Buy Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) And Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

Indonesia

Bank Tabungan Negara, abbreviated as BTN, is an Indonesian commercial bank primarily known as a mortgage bank, offering a range of financial products including savings, current, and fixed deposit accounts, as well as personal, business, and mortgage loans. The bank also provides Sharia-compliant banking services. It is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 1897.

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Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ)

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the...

Alan Greene

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months...

Rajan Govil

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption....

Bixmoor

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesian Banks – Much Bad News Discounted, Buy Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) And Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

We upgrade Bank Mandiri and Bank Negara to buy ratings on the back of better-than-expected credit quality, attractive valuations and the government...

Victor Galliano

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