Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> at the close on 28 April.</li>
<li>There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact will not be material on most of the stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> could be added to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices in May. With the oversubscription option nearly all used up, the stock should trade weak near-term.</li>
</ul>


Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to buy Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and sell Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) at the close on 28 April.
There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact will not be material on most of the stocks.

GoTo (GOTO IJ) could be added to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices in May. With the oversubscription option nearly all used up, the stock should trade weak near-term.


IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> lists on the IDX tomorrow. The IDX has <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>'s free float at 66% which would mean IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 Fast Entry index inclusion. </li>
<li>If included in the indices at a free float of 66%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> will have a weight of 13.55% in the IDX30 Index and 12.12% in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will then need to buy 13.2% of the real float on the stock. Active funds will also buy the stock as it would appear in their benchmarks.</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) lists on the IDX tomorrow. The IDX has GoTo (GOTO IJ)'s free float at 66% which would mean IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 Fast Entry index inclusion. 
If included in the indices at a free float of 66%, GoTo (GOTO IJ) will have a weight of 13.55% in the IDX30 Index and 12.12% in the LQ45 Index.
Passive trackers will then need to buy 13.2% of the real float on the stock. Active funds will also buy the stock as it would appear in their benchmarks.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Potential LQ45, IDX30, IDX80 Index Fast Entry & Impact

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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A conversation with Indonesia's No.1 retailer and distributor of mobile phones, revealed the company has employed a similar strategy during the most recent round of Emergency PPKM measures in Indonesia as during the PSBB mobility measures last year. This time around the company and the customers are better prepared to deal with the measures. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> has continued to pursue its mobile selling, online promotions, and sales through third-party marketplaces.
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Despite malls being shut staff have still been able to operate from the company's stores providing mobile phone service and set-up services for consumers in the home.
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The company continues to see the  average price for its products continue to rise due to customers seeking to upgrade their handsets plus opting for larger screens given work and school from home
In a new retail venture, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> is now working together with JD Sports Fashion Plc to expand its business into the fashion retail segment. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> is also expanding to take up a niche in the beauty sector by establishing a flagship outlet, The Face Shop Indonesia.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> remains a key enabler for the growth in the Indonesian digital economy, as the largest mobile phone retailer, selling most major brands including the more affordable Chinese brands, which are appealing to the mass-market consumer.
The company trades on very reasonable valuations with a stable growth outlook, with a likely pick up in growth in the next few months and into next year as PPKM restrictions are relaxed and malls are reopened.


A conversation with Indonesia's No.1 retailer and distributor of mobile phones, revealed the company has employed a similar strategy during the most recent round of Emergency PPKM measures in Indonesia as during the PSBB mobility measures last year. This time around the company and the customers are better prepared to deal with the measures. Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) has continued to pursue its mobile selling, online promotions, and sales through third-party marketplaces.

Despite malls being shut staff have still been able to operate from the company's stores providing mobile phone service and set-up services for consumers in the home.



The company continues to see the  average price for its products continue to rise due to customers seeking to upgrade their handsets plus opting for larger screens given work and school from home
In a new retail venture, Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) is now working together with JD Sports Fashion Plc to expand its business into the fashion retail segment. 
Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) is also expanding to take up a niche in the beauty sector by establishing a flagship outlet, The Face Shop Indonesia.
Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) remains a key enabler for the growth in the Indonesian digital economy, as the largest mobile phone retailer, selling most major brands including the more affordable Chinese brands, which are appealing to the mass-market consumer.
The company trades on very reasonable valuations with a stable growth outlook, with a likely pick up in growth in the next few months and into next year as PPKM restrictions are relaxed and malls are reopened.

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) - Better Reception Ahead

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

What's next for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> after COVID-19 in Indonesia is finally seemed to be under control? Theoretically, the multiple has to come off a little and the revenue growth should stall but thanks to Google and WhatsApp security updates that require new smartphones, Erajaya will benefit from another few months of higher handset sales growth as well as a higher ASP that will drive the share price even higher. 
At 9x PER, Erajaya does not look expensive at all and has more room for upside. The Djarum group reportedly is willing to pay up to 14x PER for the acquisition of Erajaya, which is 40% above the current level.

What's next for Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) after COVID-19 in Indonesia is finally seemed to be under control? Theoretically, the multiple has to come off a little and the revenue growth should stall but thanks to Google and WhatsApp security updates that require new smartphones, Erajaya will benefit from another few months of higher handset sales growth as well as a higher ASP that will drive the share price even higher. 
At 9x PER, Erajaya does not look expensive at all and has more room for upside. The Djarum group reportedly is willing to pay up to 14x PER for the acquisition of Erajaya, which is 40% above the current level. 

Erajaya (ERAA): Beneficiary of WhatsApp and Google Update

If the US equity markets have stay-home names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peloton-interactive-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28014:1" rel="noopener">Peloton Interactive (PTON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoom-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28002:1" rel="noopener">Zoom Technologies Inc (ZOOM US)</a> , Indonesia has <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> as one of the stay home names besides the private internet behemoth such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> . 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/216/533/original/image_71646866821625224195978.png?1625224195" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="216533"></figure>
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source: Reuters
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The outperformance was apparent although, during this time, 300 stores were closed during the earlier lockdown (PSBB).  Erajaya has established various methods during the previous lockdown that will bring the in-store experience to the customers' homes, keeping the potential for upselling of higher-margin accessories products.

If the US equity markets have stay-home names such as Peloton Interactive (PTON US) and Zoom Technologies Inc (ZOOM US) , Indonesia has Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) as one of the stay home names besides the private internet behemoth such as Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) and Gojek (1379371D IJ) . 


source: Reuters

The outperformance was apparent although, during this time, 300 stores were closed during the earlier lockdown (PSBB).  Erajaya has established various methods during the previous lockdown that will bring the in-store experience to the customers' homes, keeping the potential for upselling of higher-margin accessories products. 

Erajaya (ERAA): In-Store Experience to Your Home

Indonesia

PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk is an integrated company engaged in the distribution and retail of mobile telecommunication devices, including mobile phones, tablets, SIM cards, operator vouchers, accessories, and IoT devices. The company also provides value-added services such as mobile phone protection and handset leasing. Erajaya Swasembada also operates in the active lifestyle, beauty and wellness, and food and nourishment sectors. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was established in 1996.

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Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)

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